From Grenfell to Kartalkaya: disasters, collective action, and social justice

Dedicated to the memory of Mert Doğan, Duygu Doğan, Mavi Doğan, and Doğa Doğan On 21 January 2025, a fire at the Grand Kartal Hotel in Kartalkaya, Turkey, killed 78 people, including at least 36 children, and injured 51 others. Despite being one of the region’s top ski resorts, investigations revealed severe fire safety violations. The hotel lacked essential protections such as an automatic alarm, sprinkler system, functioning smoke detectors, and illuminated emergency exits. The area had no dedicated fire department, and the nearest units – nearly an hour away in Bolu – struggled to reach the scene due to harsh winter conditions, allowing the fire to burn unchecked for over 12 hours

Could Trump and Xi break the deadlock in the World Bank?

Jakob Vestergaard and Robert H. Wade argue that Trump’s transactional approach to deals might paradoxically help break the long-standing deadlock in World Bank governance by pushing China to increase its financial contributions in exchange for greater shareholding and influence

Construction and control of cartographic imaginaries: Kashmir and Taiwan

Cartographic representations of Kashmir and Taiwan act as sites upon which Indian and Chinese state power is exercised to govern the logics of visibility and legibility for these two regions. Despite the differences in regime type, these major non-Western powers represent Kashmir and Taiwan respectively as internal and integral parts of their sovereign territorial form. In this article, we consider two cases that have not hitherto been studied together in International Relations (IR), putting forward ‘cartographic imaginaries’ as a framework to reveal systematic analytical dynamics in relation to representation, nationalism, and diaspora. Cartographic imaginaries are sites of productive power that evoke certain emotions and carry a set of ideas relating to territory that can be naturalised through repeated exposure. We present in-depth investigations providing a range of examples to trace Indian and Chinese states’ efforts, both domestic and international, involved in constructing and controlling cartographic imaginaries of Kashmir and Taiwan. Our analysis relates to significant current concerns in IR about critiques of imperial cartography, impact of rising powers on global order dynamics, and transnational governance of diaspora. Our framework thus demonstrates the connexions between affect, visuality, and state power and offers empirical insights into non-Western projections of imperialism on a global scale

Multivariate zero-inflated INAR(1) model with an application in automobile insurance

The objective of this article is to propose a comprehensive solution for analyzing multidimensional non-life claim count data that exhibits time and cross-dependence, as well as zero inflation. To achieve this, we introduce a multivariate INAR(1) model, with the innovation term characterized by either a multivariate zero-inflated Poisson distribution or a multivariate zero-inflated hurdle Poisson distribution. Additionally, our modeling framework accounts for the impact of individual and coverage-specific covariates on the mean parameters of each model, thereby facilitating the computation of customized insurance premiums based on varying risk profiles. To estimate the model parameters, we employ a novel expectation-maximization (EM) algorithm. Our model demonstrates satisfactory performance in the analysis of European motor third-party liability claim count data

Prediction of implant failure risk due to periprosthetic femoral fracture after primary elective total hip arthroplasty: a simplified and validated model based on 154,519 total hip arthroplasties from the Swedish Arthroplasty Register

Aims While cementless fixation offers potential advantages over cemented fixation, such as a shorter operating time, concerns linger over its higher cost and increased risk of periprosthetic fractures. If the risk of fracture can be forecasted, it would aid the shared decision-making process related to cementless stems. Our study aimed to develop and validate predictive models of periprosthetic femoral fracture (PPFF) necessitating revision and reoperation after elective total hip arthroplasty (THA). Methods We included 154,519 primary elective THAs from the Swedish Arthroplasty Register (SAR), encompassing 21 patient-, surgical-, and implant-specific features, for model derivation and validation in predicting 30-day, 60-day, 90-day, and one-year revision and reoperation due to PPFF. Model performance was tested using the area under the curve (AUC), and feature importance was identified in the best-performing algorithm. Results The Lasso regression excelled in predicting 30-day revisions (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) = 0.85), while the Gradient Boosting Machine (GBM) model outperformed other models by a slight margin for all remaining endpoints (AUC range: 0.79 to 0.86). Predictive factors for revision and reoperation were identified, with patient features such as increasing age, higher American Society of Anesthesiologists grade (> III), and World Health Organization obesity classes II to III associated with elevated risks. A preoperative diagnosis of idiopathic necrosis increased revision risk. Concerning implant design, factors such as cementless femoral fixation, reverse-hybrid fixation, hip resurfacing, and small ( 52 mm) femoral heads increased both revision and reoperation risks. Conclusion This is the first study to develop machine-learning models to forecast the risk of PPFF necessitating secondary surgery. Future studies are required to externally validate our algorithm and assess its applicability in clinical practice

From vision to reality: the EU's pharmaceutical reforms and the path to improved access

Disparities in access to oncology medicines in European Union (EU) member states can impact patient outcomes profoundly, with availability and timely access varying significantly across and within member states. This paper discusses the intersection of the new European Health Technology Assessment Regulation (HTAR), the provisions of the proposed pharmaceutical legislation and their potential impacts on access to oncology medicines across EU member states. The HTAR, seeking to standardise the clinical evaluation of new medicines, has the potential to streamline the evaluation process but also risks oversimplifying diverse national healthcare needs. While the HTAR may accelerate access in countries with less-developed health technology assessment systems, it could potentially conflict with established practices in countries with advanced assessment systems, resulting in both joint and national clinical evaluations becoming necessary. The proposed pharmaceutical legislation reform, in both initial and updated forms, aims to incentivise an EU-wide launch of new medicines that challenges the feasibility for manufacturers, particularly in the context of diverse and complex national pricing and reimbursement systems. Both initiatives mark a significant shift towards more collaborative European healthcare policy yet faces the potential of unintended consequences owing to an apparent lack of pragmatism, such as delays in access because of increased administrative burdens and possible deterrents for innovation in Europe. The paper underscores the need for policy adaptation and multi-stakeholder collaboration to ensure the legislative changes achieve equitable and timely access to oncology treatments across the EU

The populist playbook: why identity trumps policy and how democrats can adapt

Despite their poor record in office, populists continue to win elections. Traditional models that assume a narrow definition of self‐interest fail to explain the electoral resilience of populism. Contrary to conventional wisdom, voters typically make choices based on their social identities and support candidates with whom they can identify. Because populism is a variety of identity politics—always based on ‘us’ versus ‘them’—democrats and liberals seeking to counter it should play the identity game in a virtuous way, rather than vilify it or pretend it does not exist. More specifically, they should try to build inclusive identities through a liberal patriotic narrative that fosters a sense of shared fate across diverse groups. This article discusses specific features of this narrative and the supporting conditions it requires to become a plausible alternative to right‐wing populists’ divisive appeals

Inescapable objects? Automobility and everyday disorder in an English town

In our study of everyday security in one English town (Macclesfield in north-west England), numerous sources of data suggest that annoyance about cars—their volume, speed, (bad) parking, presence at the school gate, and overall effect on the quality and character of everyday life in the town—loom large in the preoccupations of local people. It has been common in work on public insecurities—including, we should add, our own study of the same town twenty-five years earlier (Girling et al. Crime and Social Change in Middle England, Routledge, Abingdon, 2000)—to marginalize such car-related concerns from consideration of the social meanings of place, disorder and public safety and hence from sociological attention. But what happens if, instead, we attend closely to the ways in which people in this English town have come to notice cars and treat automobility as a consequential component of their sense of the town as being or not being a safe and liveable place. In this paper, we document and make sense of certain framings of the car’s prominent place in the local harmscape and consider what is at stake in the competing ways in which automobility is spoken about as an agent of everyday disorder

Polarisation and public policy: political adverse selection under Obamacare

Politicising policies designed to address market failures can diminish their effectiveness. We document a pattern of ‘political adverse selection’ in the health insurance exchanges established under the Affordable Care Act (colloquially, ‘Obamacare’): Republicans enrolled at lower rates than Democrats and independents, a gap driven by healthier Republicans. This selection raised public subsidy spending by approximately $155 per enrollee annually (3.2% of average cost). We fielded a survey to show that this selection does not exist for other insurance products. Lower enrolment and higher costs are concentrated in more Republican areas, potentially contributing to polarised views of the policy

Turkish cultural diplomacy toward China’s Turkic communities (1933–1949)

Despite the availability of a modest body of research on Ottoman policies towards the Uyghurs and Türkiye’s post-1950 stance, the 1933–1949 interim period has been mostly overlooked. This study examines Türkiye’s cultural diplomacy towards China and the Uyghurs, a Turkic Muslim minority in northwest China, with a special focus on the 1933–1949 period, which corresponds to the crystallisation of Uyghur national identity through the Turkic Islamic Republic of East Turkestan (TIRET, 1933–1934) and the Second East Turkestan Republic (SETR, 1944–1949). This era saw Türkiye’s increased cultural involvement, driven by revolutionary changes under Atatürk and China’s political instability. In this article, we conduct a qualitative content analysis of declassified diplomatic archives, made available under Presidential Decree No. 11 (2018) to explore the evolution of Turkish cultural diplomacy. Before the conclusion of World War II, Turkish diplomacy primarily focused on understanding local cultural contexts, implementing educational reforms, facilitating student exchanges, promoting the Kemalist Revolution, and disseminating the new Turkish alphabet and cultural materials, which were positively received by Chinese authorities. Interestingly, China’s initiatives were crucial in sparking diplomatic relations. In the changing geopolitical environment of the post-war period, Turkish cultural diplomacy gradually shifted from emphasising the new Turkish alphabet and Kemalist ideals to incorporating Arabic and English materials, which was accompanied by a more cautious approach aimed at avoiding tensions with major international powers