The power of prevention – a lifeline for the NHS?

Governments all over the world are struggling to control the spiralling costs of healthcare – the UK government is no exception. Its long-term strategy includes a much greater focus on prevention: to keep people as healthy and productive as possible for longer. This paper asks whether a greater focus on prevention is a possible lifeline for the National Health Service (NHS) as is often claimed, but it also examines other benefits to society. After considering various examples of prevention and the metrics used to measure their effectiveness, we use tobacco consumption as a case study to evaluate the costs to the public purse and to wider society. We give further examples, including obesity, but in less depth. We find that whilst there are significant benefits to public expenditure, including the NHS, in both cases, these are dwarfed by wider benefits to society both in terms of tangible economic benefits and improved well-being. We offer several suggestions for improving our understanding of the effectiveness of prevention policies in general and how the Actuarial profession can contribute to this debate

Strategic imitation-business failure nexus

PurposeAlthough strategic imitations can erode the competitiveness of firms, there has been limited conceptualization of the different pathways through which imitation can lead to various types of business failures. This study examines mechanisms through which different types of imitations can lead to business failure.Design/methodology/approachSeveral scientific databases were searched to elicit insights for the conceptualization.FindingsThe paper advances a four-domain organizing framework to elucidate the imitation-failure (I-F) nexus: imitation strategy (process imitation vs. product imitation) and the nature and speed of imitation-induced business failure (incremental failure vs. sudden failure).Practical implicationsThis paper is valuable for academics and practitioners in providing managerial and policy implications along with directions for future research.Originality/valueThe amalgamation of these two vital streams of research culminates in the development of a unified framework that provides much-needed insights into imitation-induced business failure, the challenges that illuminate the life cycle of firms, and their organizational prospects

Borane‐Mediated Highly Secondary Selective Deoxyfluorination of Alcohols

Organofluorine compounds are vital across multiple sectors, hence highly selective methods to install fluorine are of considerable importance. The deoxyfluorination of alcohols is a key approach to prepare organofluorine compounds, however, a highly secondary (2°)‐selective deoxyfluorination of alcohols has not been realized to date. Herein, we report that borane‐mediated deoxyfluorination results in high 2°‐selectivity in inter‐ and intra‐molecular competition reactions versus primary (1°), tertiary (3°) and even benzylic (Bn) alcohols. This is an operationally simple method using only commercial reagents (e.g., Et3N ⋅ 3HF) that starts from the alcohol which is converted to the O‐alkyl‐N‐H‐isourea in situ. The origin of the high 2°‐selectivity was elucidated to be due to the relative barriers to carbodiimide elimination from the O‐alkyl‐N‐(BR<jats:sub/>2)‐isoureas. As the selectivity controlling step does not involve fluoride, this borane‐mediated approach can be applied to other nucleophiles, as demonstrated by 2°‐selective deoxychlorination using HCl occurring in preference to substitution of 1° and Bn analogues. This borane‐mediated nucleophilic substitution therefore provides a new approach to circumvent the selectivity limitations inherent in classical SN2 and SN1 type reactions

A Phase Portrait-Based Sliding Mode Control Method to Improve Dynamic Stability of Car-Trailer Combinations via Differential Braking

As a specific articulated vehicle, lateral stability of car-trailer combination deserves special attention because this vehicle shows catastrophic dynamic instability occasionally at high speeds. This is known as sway or flutter and might poses a serious threat to traffic safety on the highway. The problem can be attribute to complex dynamics coupling between the towing car and the trailer. This paper proposes a phase portrait-based sliding mode control method via differential braking at the towing car and the trailer simultaneously to realize the direct yaw moment control and improve dynamic stability. In this process, a nonlinear single-track model with 3 degrees of freedom is established and integrated into the controller design. The stability region of the towing car and the trailer is analyzed based on the sideslip angle - yaw rate phase portraits under different speeds. And the sliding mode surface of controller is designed based on the stability region. The Matlab/Simulink and TruckSim co-simulation is established to verify the performance of controller. The steering wheel input of simulation is designed in accordance with ISO9815 and the dynamic critical speed is determined based on the yaw damping ratio of car-trailer combination. Compared with the model predictive control-based method, the simulation results demonstrate that the phase portrait-based sliding mode control method has realized yaw damping ratio of 0.81 both in the towing car and the trailer at dynamic critical speed. The proposed method has superior performance in enhancing the dynamic stability of car-trailer combination.</p

3DSSDF: Underwater 3D Sonar Reconstruction Using Signed Distance Functions

Underwater autonomous robotic operations require online localization and 3D mapping. Because of the absence of absolute positioning underwater, these tasks strongly rely on embedded sensors, including proprioceptive or navigation sensors - which can be fused for an odometry, - and exteroceptive sensors. One of the most popular exteroceptive sensors for underwater is the imaging sonar, which emits a large fan-shaped acoustic signal and estimates the position of the surrounding obstacles from a measure of the reflected signal. This paper addresses underwater online localization and 3D mapping using a forward looking, wide-aperture imaging sonar and vehicle's intrinsic navigation estimates. We introduce 3DSSDF (3D Sonar Reconstruction Using Signed Distance Functions), a new localization and 3D mapping algorithm based on signed distance functions, which is evaluated in simulation and on real data, in man-made and natural environments. Comparisons to reference trajectories and maps demonstrate that, in our tests, 3DSSDF efficiently corrects navigation drift and that trajectory and map accuracy is always below 1 m and below 1% of the distanced travelled, which can be sufficient for the safe inspection of natural or artificial underwater structures

Three Principles for Social Robots as Embodied Mediators

Robots are becoming increasingly pervasive in our lives, evolving from service and security robots to social robots that build bonds and personal relationship with their human counterparts. We are witnessing a growing trend of robots being embedded within various groups and demographics. This paper presents social robots that mediate relationships between individuals, groups, and society as a whole, which we refer to as embodied mediators. These embodied mediators cater not only to individual needs, but also to communal and societal needs. As we develop these new types of robots with the potential to significantly impact society, it is imperative to establish guiding principles that ensure their safe and beneficial integration. This paper proposes three principles for embodied mediation that consider social underpinnings and extend beyond theory and into practice through use case scenarios currently under development.</p

Development and analysis of national energy system scenarios for Malaysia's energy transition towards net zero

Environmental issues arise from energy systems that heavily rely on fossil fuels to generate electricity for a nation. These challenges can be mitigated by increasing the proportion of renewables in the national energy mix and by using synergistic approaches across various energy consumption sectors. This study aimed to develop five national energy system scenarios for Malaysia to assess the effects of integrating higher capacities of variable renewable energy (VRE) in the long-term. High temporal resolution electricity profiles from the Malaysian Grid System Operator (GSO) via the International Energy Agency (IEA), supplemented by key inputs from energy transition roadmaps: the Malaysian Renewable Energy Roadmap (MyRER) and the National Energy Transition Roadmap (NETR), were utilised to develop the scenarios. This study investigated near optimal solutions in total capacities of lithium ion (Li-ion) battery energy storage systems (BESS) and pumped hydro storage (PHS) required by Malaysia in 2040 with the implementation of EE based on NETR 2040 (Scenario 5). With EE, ESS, and the phasing out of coal power plants in the NETR 2040, there was a reduction of 39.62 Mt CO2/year in total CO2 emissions from Scenario 4 to Scenario 5. The findings of this study will aid policymakers and researchers in creating strategies for the development of RE and ESS in Malaysia or other developing countries

The missing puzzle piece: contextual insights for enhanced pharmaceutical supply chain forecasting

Accurate forecasting in pharmaceutical supply chains is essential for ensuring medicine availability, particularly in low-resource settings. However, many existing approaches rely solely on historical consumption data, provide only point forecasts and fail to account for the operational context and uncertainty inherent in these environments. In this study, we collaborated with experts at the Ethiopian Pharmaceutical Supply Service to identify key contextual factors, such as stock replenishment cycles, fiscal inventory counts and seasonal disease outbreaks and integrated them into forecasting models. Using five years of monthly distribution data (December 2017 to July 2022) for 33 essential medicines, we evaluated a range of forecasting methods, including statistical, machine learning and foundational models. We assessed point and probabilistic forecast accuracy using standard evaluation metrics. Our findings show that incorporating contextual variables significantly improves forecast performance, especially for classical time series models. We recommend investing in the routine collection of contextual indicators and adopting transparent, low complexity forecasting methods that can be sustained in practice. To support reproducibility and wider use, we provide all data, code and the full manuscript as an open, executable Quarto project developed in R and Python

A comparative evaluation of HPLC, FTIR, Raman and NMR for analysis and monitoring of phosphatidylcholine to phosphatidylglycerol

In the enzymatic synthesis of phosphatidylglycerol (PG) from phosphatidylcholine (PC), the close structural similarity between these two phospholipids poses a major challenge for real-time monitoring and effective process control. In this work, we carried out a systematic comparative investigation of HPLC, FTIR, Raman and 31P NMR for their abilities of detecting and distinguishing PC from PG, where the HPLC is served as the baseline method. The results demonstrate that FTIR cannot detect PC or discriminate between PC and PG in this system. While Raman spectroscopy shows a linear correlation for PC concentrations between 700 and 1000 cm⁻1, it similarly fails in differentiating PC from PG because of overlapping headgroup signals. By contrast, NMR offers high accuracy and reproducibility in quantifying both PC and PG, with minimal sample preparation and shorter analysis times in comparison to the HPLC. Applying the NMR in the real synthesis of PG from PC in an oscillatory baffled reactor, concentration profiles of PC decreasing and PG increasing with time are obtained

Changing Shape of Sustainable Urban Form with Technological Progress

Through history urban form has been dependent on transport and industrial technologies. Policy makers in Western economies have taken a view that a sustainable urban form is high density and compact. The basic hypothesis of the paper is that technological progress has undermined this argument, and enhanced the case for decentralised settlements. It considers this through the experience of the UK and the rise of online sales. The dramatic rise in flexible work patterns has also opened a new vista on urban sustainability. In addition, the prospect of electric motor removes the main argument for compact urban forms