Drivers for optimum sizing of wind turbines for offshore wind farms

Large-scale exploitation of offshore wind energy is deemed essential to provide its expected share to electricity needs of the future. To achieve the same, turbine and farm-level optimizations play a significant role. Over the past few years, the growth in the size of turbines has massively contributed to the reduction in costs. However, growing turbine sizes come with challenges in rotor design, turbine installation, supply chain, etc. It is, therefore, important to understand how to size wind turbines when minimizing the levelized cost of electricity (LCoE) of an offshore wind farm. Hence, this study looks at how the rated power and rotor diameter of a turbine affect various turbine and farm-level metrics and uses this information in order to identify the key design drivers and how their impact changes with setup. A multi-disciplinary design optimization and analysis (MDAO) framework is used to perform the analysis. The framework uses low-fidelity models that capture the core dependencies of the outputs on the design variables while also including the trade-offs between various disciplines of the offshore wind farm. The framework is used, not to estimate the LCoE or the optimum turbine size accurately, but to provide insights into various design drivers and trends. A baseline case, for a typical setup in the North Sea, is defined where LCoE is minimized for a given farm power and area constraint with the International Energy Agency 15 MW reference turbine as a starting point. It is found that the global optimum design, for this baseline case, is a turbine with a rated power of 16 MW and a rotor diameter of 236 m. This is already close to the state-of-the-art designs observed in the industry and close enough to the starting design to justify the applied scaling. A sensitivity study is also performed that identifies the design drivers and quantifies the impact of model uncertainties, technology/cost developments, varying farm design conditions, and different farm constraints on the optimum turbine design. To give an example, certain scenarios, like a change in the wind regime or the removal of farm power constraint, result in a significant shift in the scale of the optimum design and/or the specific power of the optimum design. Redesigning the turbine for these scenarios is found to result in an LCoE benefit of the order of 1 %–2 % over the already optimized baseline. The work presented shows how a simplified approach can be applied to a complex turbine sizing problem, which can also be extended to metrics beyond LCoE. It also gives insights into designers, project developers, and policy makers as to how their decision may impact the optimum turbine scale.Wind Energ

Flexural Behaviour of Concrete Reinforced With Basalt Fibre Reinforcement Bars: An Experimental and Numerical Research

The emergence of innovative construction materials is dawning a new era of ambition within the civil engineering community. Among these innovative materials, Basalt Fibre Reinforced Polymer (BFRP) has recently surfaced with promising potential as a reinforcing material in concrete. Currently, in the Dutch concrete construction industry, the choice for reinforcement steel has remained unchanged for the past decades. However, the increasing availability of innovative alternatives could help the transition to a more sustainable concrete industry. Although BFRP has promising potential for application in concrete structures, the global application has not been established yet. One of the reasons for this limited research into the structural behaviour of concrete structures reinforced with BFRP-bars. Furthermore, the limited development of codes specifically designed for concrete reinforced with BFRP-bars and the modest availability compared to reinforcement steel also play into the unknowns about the material.BFRP-bars contain certain qualities that reinforcement steel does not. One of the most prominent is resistance against corrosion due to environmental influences on concrete structures. This eliminates the requirement for the concrete cover to protect the reinforcement from corrosion. Hence, the concrete cover only serves its purpose to ensure effective bond action between the reinforcement bars and the concrete. This inherent quality of BFRP-bars eases the crack width control requirements in the codes for the design of structures reinforced with BFRP-bars to a range of 0.5 mm to 0.7 mm. Although this is a significant increase in comparison to the Eurocode for concrete structures (0.2 mm to 0.4 mm), the properties of BFRP-bars cause larger crack width development.The aim of the experiment is to investigate the flexural behaviour of concrete beams reinforced with BFRP-bars as tensile reinforcement. The flexural behaviour of concrete structures reinforced with BFRP-bars is studied both experimentally and numerically. The research program contains 6 beams differing in reinforcement material, concrete covers, reinforcement ratio and bar diameters. To investigate the effects of the concrete cover, 2 beams are designed with concrete covers of 31 mm and 11 mm containing 3 BFRP-bars with a diameter of 8 mm inthe tension zone. To compare the behaviour of these beams, 2 identical beams with reinforcement steel are designed. To determine the effects of the reinforcement bar diameter, 1 beam is designed with 2 bars with a diameter of 10 mm. The reinforcement ratio in beams remains approximately equal, hence the only changing parameter is the bar diameter. The effects reinforcement ratio is investigated by a beam designed with 2 bars with a diameter of 8 mm. By keeping the bar diameter and the concrete cover the same, the reinforcement ratio is the only changing parameter for this beam. By subjecting the beams to a 4-point bending test, a fully developed crack pattern can be established over a certain length. By using digital image correlation (DIC), the flexural behaviour is monitored and analysed. This includes both crack width development and overall pattern forming. The results are verified with linear variable differential transformers (LVDT‘s) and a laser measuring vertical displacements. This procedure is devised to evaluate the stiffness behaviour of the beams as well as the cracking behaviours. In addition, the experimental program includes a series of direct tensile tests with reinforcement bars to determine the stress-strain behaviour of the reinforcement bars themselves...Civil Engineerin

Increasing interpretability in XAI: Addressing the design principles for interactive XUIs to increase interpretability in XAI for end-users

Recent advancements in artificial intelligence (AI), particularly in deep learning, have significantly enhanced AI capabilities but have also led to more complex and less interpretable algorithms. This research addresses the challenge of Explainable AI (XAI) by focusing on enhancing the interpretability of AI decisions through the use of Explainable User Interfaces (XUI). The study identifies two primary knowledge gaps: the predominance of XAI research targeting technically skilled users, neglecting the end-user who often lacks technical expertise, and the insufficient exploration of user-centric design principles in real-world XUI applications.The research adopts the Design Science Research Method (DSRM) to develop an XUI tailored for the FOKUS project, which uses Electrocardiogram (ECG) data to detect myocardial infarctions. The study emphasises the strategic application of interactive design principles such as complementary naturalness, flexibility in explanation methods, and responsiveness through progressive disclosure to improve the system’s interpretability. Notably, sensitivity to context and mind, though not initially implemented, emerged as a critical design principle from the analysis and was subsequently positioned at the pinnacle of a restructured pyramid model of design principles.Key findings highlight the effectiveness of the selected design principles in enhancing interpretability and underscore the importance of involving stakeholders early in the development process to align the XAI and XUI with end-user needs. The research proposes a structured design approach framework for XUI, involving sequential phases from pre-XAI to XUI design, to systematically integrate user feedback and improve the design iteratively. The proposed framework restructured pyramid model of the design principles aim to guide future developments in XAI and XUI, enhancing their practical application and effectiveness in various contexts.Management of Technology (MoT

High-Temperature Aquifer Thermal Energy Storage (HT-ATES) system for research development and demonstration on the TU Delft campus

At present, over half of all primary energy used in Europe is used for heating and cooling. Therefore, decarbonizing the heating supply is essential to achieve climate targets. Underground thermal energy storage is a key enabling technology for the energy transition to buffer the large seasonal mismatch between thermal energy demand and sustainable thermal energy production capabilities. In Delft, a High-Temperature Aquifer Thermal Energy Storage (HT-ATES) system will be installed at the campus of Delft University of Technology (TU Delft). It will be integrated in the wider heating system on and around the TU Delft campus, which itself is undergoing a transformation to optimally supply sustainable thermal energy. The district heating network will be extended and utilize the thermal energy from a geothermal doublet producing heat at around 75-80°C with a flow rate of ~350m3/hr. Excess energy produced by the geothermal well in summer will be stored in the HT-ATES system, and will be utilised when demand exceeds production throughout the winter. The HT-ATES system will comprise of 7 wells (3 hot wells of 80°C and 4 warm wells of 50°C) to a depth of approximately 200m, with storage in an unconsolidated sedimentary aquifer between 160-200m depth. It is designed so that the instantaneous excess power from the geothermal project can be stored and demand from the district heating network be extracted from the system.The HT-ATES system at TU Delft is partially funded by local stakeholders and the European commission within the PUSH-IT project and has two primary goals: (i) to reduce carbon emissions on TU Delft campus , and (ii) to create a unique demonstration, education and research infrastructure. The complexity of a HT-ATES requires innovative solutions during the entire system life cycle. The scientific programme that is initially planned within the project is therefore focusing on various research fields and includes:- Characterisation of the subsurface formations including mechanical, hydraulic, thermal, and chemical properties.- Evaluation and monitoring of the biological conditions and microbial diversity, and potential impact on water quality.- Innovations in drilling and completion, monitoring and performance.- Quantification of the system performance and system impact during multiple storage cycles and the full lifecycle of the HT-ATES. This will include extensively monitoring temperature distribution and water quality in the subsurface to characterise behaviour and improve models.- Demonstrate and develop the implementation of HT-ATES in an urban setting, including control of the system in the built-environment and transforming the conventional heat network to a future-proof heat network.- To allow access to other universities or institutions with active programmes in the field of Geothermal Science and Engineering to jointly carry out research and perform experiments.-Societal engagement and legal evaluation for improving the just energy transition.Geo-engineeringWater Resource

How Far Ahead Should Autonomous Vehicles Start Resolving Predicted Conflicts? Exploring Uncertainty-Based Safety-Efficiency Trade-Off

Resolving predicted conflicts is vital for safe and efficient autonomous vehicles (AV). In practice, vehicular motion prediction faces inherent uncertainty due to heterogeneous driving behaviours and environments. This spatial uncertainty increases non-linearly with prediction time horizons, leading AVs to perceive more road space occupied by conflicting vehicles. Reacting early to resolve predicted conflicts can ensure safety but may adversely affect traffic efficiency. Therefore, determining how far ahead AVs should start resolving predicted conflicts based on safety and traffic efficiency constraints is crucial. To answer this question, this study proposes a novel approach to explore the trade-off between safety and traffic efficiency considering prediction uncertainty. Firstly, a continuous-time motion prediction framework is proposed for estimating the spatial probability distribution of a vehicle’s future position at any moment within the maximum time horizon. Subsequently, average driver space and the corresponding traffic flow are derived from the safety settings of AV and prediction uncertainty. As such, the safety-efficiency trade-off can be quantified. Experiments show that mandatory decision points, high speeds, and traffic state transitions usually cause fast-increasing prediction uncertainty. A case study of Intelligent Driver Models (IDM) shows that traffic efficiency drops rapidly when AVs resolve predicted conflicts longer than 1.5 seconds ahead. AVs can act earlier on motorways for efficiency concerns but must be myopic at urban intersections. Prediction uncertainty fundamentally constrains the safety-efficiency performance of AVs. These findings are instructive for designing traffic-compatible AVs.Transport and Plannin

Unravelling uncertainty in trajectory prediction using a non-parametric approach

Predicting the trajectories of road agents is fundamental for self-driving cars. Trajectory prediction contains many sources of uncertainty in data and modelling. A thorough understanding of this uncertainty is crucial in a safety-critical task like auto-piloting a vehicle. In practice, it is necessary to distinguish between the uncertainty caused by partial observability of all factors that may affect a driver's near-future decisions, the so-called aleatoric uncertainty, and the uncertainty of deploying a model in new scenarios that are possibly not present in the training set, the so-called epistemic uncertainty. They reflect the trade-off between data collection and model improvement In this paper, we propose a new framework to systematically quantify both sources of uncertainty. Specifically, to approximate the spatial distribution of an agent's future position, we propose a 2D histogram-based deep learning model combined with deep ensemble techniques for measuring aleatoric and epistemic uncertainty by entropy-based quantities. The proposed Uncertainty Quantification Network (UQnet) employs a causal part to enhance its generalizability so rare driving behaviours can be effectively identified. Experiments on the INTERACTION dataset show that UQnet is able to give more robust predictions in generalizability tests compared to the correlation-based models. Further analysis presents that high aleatoric uncertainty cases are mainly caused by heterogeneous driving behaviours and unknown intended directions. Based on this aleatoric uncertainty component, we estimate the lower bounds of mean-square-error and final-displacement-error as indicators for the predictability of trajectories. Furthermore, the analysis of epistemic uncertainty illustrates that domain knowledge of speed-dependent driving behaviour is essential for adapting a model from low-speed to high-speed situations. Our paper contributes to motion forecasting with a new framework, that recasts the problem of accuracy improvement in a way that focuses on differentiating between unpredictable components and rare cases for which more and different data should be collected.Transport and Plannin

The shape of fringing tidal flats in engineered estuaries

For the management of estuaries and the preservation of tidal flats it is crucial to understand the tidal flat shape and development. Previous work focused predominantly on the quasi-equilibrium shape of tidal flats along open coasts with a dominant cross-shore flow and wave exposure. This paper evaluates the shape of fringing tidal flats in engineered estuaries, where longshore velocities generally dominate. Using a long-term (20 years) topographic data set of an anthropogenically modified estuary in the Netherlands (the Western Scheldt estuary), we relate key profile shape parameters and changes over time to natural and anthropogenic processes. In an engineered estuary, the tidal flat shape depends on the estuary geometry, hydrodynamic forcings and human interventions. In contrast to open coast tidal flats, the presence of the channel and dominant longshore flow determines the available cross-shore length (accommodation space) of the tidal flat and the shape of the tidal flat. This accommodation space defines the maximum tidal flat height and opportunity for marsh development. We propose the use of the Index of Development, indicating to what extend tidal flats have space to develop. This index is not only influenced by longshore and cross-shore flow, but also (or even more) by hydraulic structures, dike realignments and channel migration. Especially the latter two strongly influence the accommodation space and thereby the maximum tidal flat height and the opportunity for marsh development. For large stretches of the Western Scheldt, the accommodation space is too small, and the majority of the tidal flats do not vertically extent to mean high water. The success of tidal flat and marsh restoration projects depends on the accommodation space.Coastal EngineeringEnvironmental Fluid Mechanic

Distributed Acoustic Sensing using straight, sinusoidally and helically shaped fibres for seismic applications

Distributed Acoustic Sensing (DAS) is a versatile dynamic strain sensing method that has been adopted for a wide range of seismic applications. In DAS, optical fibres are interrogated and used as sensors, where a strain or strain-rate measurement is made along a specific length of the fibre, called the gauge length. Its main appeal is the spatially dense data over long distances. The main limitations of DAS, however, are that it is mainly sensitive along the axial direction of the fibre and that the signal-to-noise ratio is worse than that of standard geophones. The first issue limits its adoption in surface reflection seismic when the fibre is deployed horizontally. Also, due to the very nature of the measurement (i.e. elongation and contraction of the fibre), it is commonly considered as a single-component measurement, therefore it lacks the information from the other components.This thesis studies the potential of obtaining multi-component information from DAS as well as investigating the use of combined fibre configurations for surface-seismic applications. We approach this by examining several fibre-shaping approaches with static and dynamic strain measurements. First, the concept of the sinusoidally shaped fibre is examined to make a directional strain sensor in a direction other than the fibres’ axial direction using a static-strain approach. Secondly, the combined use of straight and helically wound fibres for obtaining multi-component information from DAS data as well as assessing the usefulness of using such a combination is investigated in a surface-seismic setting.'Using the sinusoidally shaped fibre, two approaches are investigated. The first approach involves the use of the sinusoidally shaped fibre embedded in a homogenous material. An analytical model is presented to describe what happens to the deformed fibre in three main directions, which was validated via a finite-element model. Along with the model, loading experiments were performed on a sinusoidally shaped fibre embedding in a polyurethane-type (i.e. called Conathane®) strip in the following directions: in-line (i.e. transversal in-plane with the sinusoidal fibre), broadside (i.e. perpendicular to the sinusoidal fibre), and along-strip (i.e. along the strip’s longest dimension). We saw that the fibre is mainly sensitive to the in-line and broadside directions, and it is slightly more sensitive in the in-line direction relative to the broadside direction. We also saw that the geometrical parameters of the fibre, as well as the mechanical properties of the embedding material, affect its directional sensitivity. This is exploited in the second approach where the embedding material is now adapted to a low Poisson’s ratio metamaterial as well as further adaptations in the geometry of the fibre, aiming to create a unidirectional strain sensor. Experimental results showed improvements in the sensitivity but not as much as predicted by the analytical or numerical modelling.Using DAS in field settings, multiple configurations of straight (SF) and helically wound fibres (HWF) with different wrapping angles (α) were buried in a 2-m trench in farmland in the province of Groningen in the Netherlands. Significant amplitude differences are observed between the straight and helically wound fibres. It is observed that shaping the fibre into a helix dampens the amplitude inside the surface wave significantly. Also, a polarity flip is observed with the use of HWF with a wrapping angle of 30◦. This hints that there is a contribution of the vertical component on the response measured by the HWF as also supported by the theoretical models. The reflection response is also examined using a set of engineered SF and HWF fibres. The main seismic reflections are present in both fibres with higher amplitude in SF compared to HWF, contrary to what was expected. Also, using post-stack images we see that the SF and HWF provide reflection structural images comparable to surface-deployed geophones but with an (expected) lower signal-to-noise ratio. We show that the combined use of SF and HWF is useful, as reflections were better shown for the shallow section, unlike HWF which provided better reflections in deeper sections. Furthermore, we discuss the effect of gauge length on the retrieval of surface waves along with the use of different fibre shapes using active and passive sources.With the active-source data, we show that the gauge length plays an essential role in the retrieval of surface waves depending on their wavelength range, as it might cause distortions in the waveform which appears as notches in the (frequency, horizontal-wavenumber)–domain, as well as complicates picking the dispersion curves of these waves. On the other hand, the helically wound fibres might require a longer gauge length to retrieve the surface wave properly. This decreased sensitivity of the helically wound fibres is also shown from virtual shots obtained by passive interferometry as well as a recorded earthquake in the area.Applied Geophysics and Petrophysic

System behaviour in prestressed concrete T-beam bridges

About 70 prestressed concrete T-beam bridges, constructed in the Netherlands between 1953–1977, are still in use today with many located in the main highway network. This type of bridge consists of prefabricated and prestressed T-shaped beams, with an integrated deck slab, cross-beams and transverse prestressing. Even if these bridges are well maintained, two important factors demand the current need for assessment: (1) increased traffic loading and (2) potential lack of shear resistance. Using traditional assessment methods it was concluded that about 50% of these bridges do not fulfil the current design code requirements. However, this does not automatically imply that these bridges are structurally unsafe, since some potentially significant additional load-transfer mechanisms are not taken into account in a traditional assessment. This is strengthened by the observation that, in general, these bridges do not show any signs of distress....Concrete Structure