PEMODELAN PERIODIK DAN STOKASTIK CURAH HUJAN HARIAN\ud DARI WILAYAH PRINGSEWU

This research are intended to study the periodic and stochastic modeling of daily rainfalls. The\ud study was carried out using data of daily rainfall with a length of 16 years (1991 – 2006) from\ud Podorejo, Fajar Esuk, and Panutan rainfall stations. The rainfall series used is assumed to be free\ud of trend. In this research data series were converted into series of rainfall sepektrum using FFT\ud (Fast Fourier Transform). Periodicity of daily rainfall data is presented using 253 periodic com-\ud ponent. Stochastic rainfall series of rainfall data is assumed as the difference (error) between the\ud rainfall data with periodic rainfall model using data length of 512 days. Based on the data series,\ud stochastic component were calculated using the approach of the autoregressive model. Stochastic\ud models presented here are by using an autoregressive model of third order.\ud The results of this research is the value of the correlation coefficient of the three stations. For this\ud study, the average correlation coefficient (R) between data and periodic model is about 0,9770,\ud between data and stochastic model is 0,9979, and between the data and the periodic stochastic\ud model is 0,99991. From these results, it can be concluded that periodic stochastic model of the\ud rainfall from Pringsewu area that processing model using 253 components, presented a very sig-\ud nificant approach

MODEL PERIODIK DAN STOKASTIK\ud DATA PASANG SURUT JAM-JAMAN DARI PELABUHAN PANJANG

The aim of this study are intended to compare periodic and stochastic tide models generated by\ud using FFT frequencies and astronomic frequencies. The Fourier series are used to simulated peri-\ud odic model, and the autoregressive method is employed to simulate stochastic model. 253 domi-\ud nant FFT frequencies and 9 astronomic frequencies are used as constituent frequencies to simulate\ud periodic models. 512 hours of data are used for the model.\ud Results of this study present that the periodic and stochastic models using the FFT frequencies\ud give more accurate results than periodic and stochastic models by using the astronomic frequen -\ud cies

EROSI LAHAN DI DAERAH TANGKAPAN HUJAN DAN DAMPAKNYA PADA\ud UMUR WADUK WAY JEPARA

ABSTRAK\ud Daerah tangkapan hujan waduk Way Jepara seluas 106,356 km2 dan terdiri dari 14 unit lahan yang merupakan\ud kawasan hutan. Perubahan tata guna lahan pada daerah tangkapan hujan waduk Way Jepara menyebabkan erosi\ud lahan yang signifikan. Dampak dari erosi lahan tersebut adalah sedimentasi waduk yang semakin meningkat,\ud sehingga menyebabkan penurunan fungsi sistem irigasi dan bahkan mempersingkat umur waduk. Penelitian ini\ud bertujuan untuk menganalisis tingkat erosi lahan, memperkirakan besarnya angkutan sedimen yang masuk ke\ud waduk dan memprediksi umur waduk Way Jepara. Hasil analisis menunjukkan bahwa indeks erosivitas hujan di\ud kawasan daerah tangkapan hujan sebesar 1.852,9 mm, termasuk dalam kategori tinggi. Nilai Erodibilitas Lahan\ud (K) rata-rata sebesar 0,3869. Kemiringan lahan berkisar antara 0% hingga 45% dengan nilai Indeks Panjang dan\ud Kemiringan Lereng (LS) berkisar antara 0,4 sampai dengan 6,8. Indeks pengelolaan tanaman (C) berkisar antara\ud 0,001 hingga 0,637 dan indeks konservasi lahan (P) berkisar antara 0,339 dan 0,5. Kelas bahaya erosi lahan\ud bervariasi antara sangat ringan hingga sangat berat, dan secara rerata termasuk bahaya sedang. Berdasarkan hasil\ud analisis rata-rata erosi lahan sebesar 156,41 ton/ha/th dan volume sedimen yang masuk ke waduk sebesar\ud 216.085,91 m3/th, maka diprediksi dead storage waduk Way Jepara akan penuh pada tahun 2035.\ud Kata kunci : daerah tangkapan hujan, Waduk Way Jepara, erosi, sedimentas

MODEL PERIODIK DAN STOKASTIK DATA PASANG SURUT JAM-JMAN DARI STASIUN MENENG

The aim of this study are to compare periodic and stochastic models generated by using FFT fre-\ud quencies with periodic and stochastic models generated by using astronomic frequencies. Fourier\ud series are used to simulated periodic model, and autoregressive method is employed to simulate\ud stochastic model. In this study, 253 dominant FFT frequencies and 9 astronomic frequencies are\ud used as constituent frequencies to simulate periodic models. 512 hours of data are used for the\ud model.\ud Results of this study present that the periodic and stochastic models using FFT frequencies give\ud more accurate results than periodic and stochastic models using the astronomic frequencies.\u

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How Many Cost Losses Caused By Traffic Jam\ud In Term Of Fuel Consumption and Value of Time\ud On Main Road in Bandar Lampung

Abstract— Bandar Lampung, capital city of Lampung such as\ud gate of Sumatera with 902,885 population in 2012, having\ud 120,554 passenger cars. Like other major cities in Indonesia,\ud especially during peak hour, congestion is commonly visible in\ud several main roads. Traffic jams of course will lead to a\ud considerable loss in terms of the value of time, fuel consumption,\ud air pollution, noise and some other qualitative aspects. This\ud research tries to calculate how the losses incurred as a result of\ud congestion in terms of fuel consumption and time value. A survey\ud carried out for six days in the peak time morning, noon and\ud afternoon to calculate the traffic volume, speed, travel time and\ud delay in one main road of this city along . Fuel consumption for\ud each vehicle type is obtained from interviews and secondary data\ud from vehicle dealers. The type of vehicles that are reviewed are\ud some brands of private cars with 2 types of diesel and gasoline\ud also public transport, without reviewing a motorcycle. After we\ud obtain travel time per each liter fuel consumption and delay, we\ud reach fuel consumption in traffic jam. From the analysis results\ud showed that the loss is due to congestion based on fuel\ud consumption is around Rp. 4.751.432.140,- per year. While the\ud value of time obtained by the method of income approach and\ud stated preference generate each value Rp. 16.903 per hour and\ud Rp. 18.417 per hour. Financial losses from value of time is\ud calculate by multiply time of traffic jam, traffic volume and value\ud of time. Using Income Approach, the loss is due to congestion\ud based on time value is around Rp. 3.607.076.443,- per year. The\ud total cost of the losses due to congestion in terms of fuel\ud consumption as well as value of time is Rp. 8.358.508.583 per\ud year. It takes only a few sample in main road which is less than 5\ud km only. We can imagine the loss due to all of city area with\ud many road segments that was crowded. This financial value is\ud also only results from congestion due to fuel consumption and\ud value of time, not counting from air pollution, noise and other\ud aspects resulting from the raise of traffic volume. If engineering\ud improvement such as traffic management not done to reduce\ud private vehicles growth, the quality of urban communities’s life\ud will be declining and environmental damage getting worse for\ud future generations.\ud Keywords— fuel consumption; time value; traffic jam;\ud financial losses; stated preferenc

Implemetation of Hybridized Genetic Algorithm for Fuzzy Travelling Salesman Problem

The Traveling Salesman Problem (TSP) is known as one of NP-complete optimization problems that has taken great interest of the researchers. The common objective is to determine route through some cities facilities in order tc, minimize travel distance. The classic TSP usually assumes that the travel costs are deterministic. In the re-al-world applications, due to the complexity of social and economic factors, it is often difficult to have deterministic value of travel costs (i.e. travel time). One way of handling such uncertainty in decision making is by introducing fuzzy programming approach. Since TSP is also usually very large, huge research efforts have been devoted to develop heuristic algorithms for solving TSP. It has also been reported that Genetic Al-gorithm could give a good solution of TSP within reasona-ble time. In this paper, we consider a more realistic model called fuzzy TSP. By assuming that the travel costs between cities are represented by triangular fuzzy number, we examine how the route should be designed. We develop a GA hy-bridized with local approach to solve the problem. Several numerical experiments are done to show the effectiveness of the proposed method

PEMODELAN STOKASTIK CURAH HUJAN DARI BEBERAPA STASIUN CURAH HUJAN WILAYAH TANGGAMUS

This research is to study the periodic and stochastic models in the series of daily rainfall data.\ud The study was conducted using daily rainfall data with a data length of 25 years (1977-2001)\ud from the station of Banjar Agung, Gisting and Gunung Batu.\ud This research used secondary rainfall data from Tanggamus, This study change the series of daily\ud rainfall data into the sepektrum rainfall using FFT (Fast Fourier Transform). Periodicity of daily\ud rainfall data were presented by using 512 rainfall. Stochastic series of rainfall data are assumed\ud as the difference (error) between the rainfall data with periodic rainfall model.\ud Results of this study is the correlation coefficient from three rainfall stations In this study, the\ud correlation coefficient (R) between the data and the periodic model is 0,9974, between stochastic\ud data series and stochastic models is 0,9996, and between data and periodic stochastic models is\ud 0,99997. From these results it can be concluded that the periodic stochastic models of\ud rainfall from Tanggamus periodic models using 512 rainfall data, the approach provides a very\ud significant.\ud Keywords:Periodic, Stochastic, Rainfal

PEMODELAN PERIODIK DAN STOKASTIK CURAH HUJAN\ud KOTA BANDAR LAMPUNG

This research aims to study the periodic and stochastic modeling of daily precipitation data series.\ud The study was carried out using data of daily rainfall data with a length of 13 years (1987 – 2000)\ud from Pahoman, Sumur Putri, and Sumber Rejo rainfall stations. The rainfall series used is as-\ud sumed to be free from the influence of the trend. This research use how to convert data into time\ud series sepektrum rain precipitation using program FFT (Fast Fourier Transform). Periodicity of\ud daily rainfall data is presented using a periodic component 512. Stochastic rainfall series of rain-\ud fall data is assumed as the difference (error) between the rainfall data with periodic rainfall model\ud using 512 components. Based on the data series on stochastic stochastic component, calculated\ud using the approach of the autoregressive model. Stochastic models presented by using a autore-\ud gressive model of order two.\ud The results of this research is the value of the correlation coefficient of the average precipitation\ud three stations. For this study, the average correlation coefficient (R) between data and model of\ud 0,9719 is periodic, between data and stochastic model is 0,9974, and between the data and the\ud model with stochastic is 0,9974. From these results it can be concluded that periodic stochastic\ud model of the rainfall of the Bandar Lampung City that processing model using 512-series compo-\ud nents, presented a very significant approach

IMPLEMENTING MODELLING TRANSPORTATION DUE\ud TO LAMPUNG'S ECONOMIC MASTER PLAN

Abstract\ud Rapid economic growth in Lampung needs support from adequate transport facility and development of the\ud infrastructure project is a solution. This research aims to model the travel pattern based on potential\ud economic due to the sunda strait bridge development plan to support KSN Sunda Strait and Economic\ud Corridors in Lampung. Road network modeling formed for assignment stage, being utilized to predict road\ud traffic in the future. Assignmet process using SATURN as transportation software. The scenario is a road\ud performance analysis after 10 (ten) years using traffic growth and several assumption such as Bakauheni –\ud Babatan – Tegineneng toll road , have functioned and can be used; Sunda Strait Bridge constructed and\ud can be used. The bridge project would help boost the growth of strategic economic area. In order to boost\ud economic development in Sumatera and especially Lampung , the government already has program to build\ud toll roads. Various constraints, such as the preparation of project implementation, land as well as financing,\ud have become barriers that make it difficult for those projects to commence in the planned.\ud Key Words: Modelling Transpotation, Potential Economic, Infrastructure Developmen