Integration of physical bound constraints to alleviate shortcomings of statistical models for extreme temperatures

International audienceHeatwaves have devastating impacts on societies and ecosystems. Their frequencies and intensities are increasing globally with anthropogenic climate change. Statistical models using Extreme Value Theory (EVT) have been used for quantifying risks of extreme temperatures but recent very intense events have cast doubt on their ability to represent the tail probabilities of temperatures. Using outputs from a large ensemble of a climate model, we show that physics-based estimates of the upper-bound of temperatures in the mid-latitudes are 3–8°C higher than suggested by EVT-based models. We propose a new method to bridge the gap between the physical and statistical estimates by forcing the EVT-based models to have an upper bound coherent with the bound provided by the instability of the air column. We show that our method reduces the underestimation of tail risks while not deteriorating the performance of the statistical models on the core of the distribution of extreme temperatures

Murang'a County Annual Development Plan 2025/2026

The County Annual Development Plan for the financial year 2025/2026 provides the basis for and marks the third year of implementation of the Third generation CIDP (2023-2027). It provides a framework for implementing County policies, programmes, projects and initiatives for each department. It therefore, forms the reference point and guides resource allocation to priority projects and programmes as indicated by the priorities in the 3rd year of the third generation CIDP 2023-2027, the public participation submissions, and the county flagship projects to be prioritized in the plan period 2025-2026. The process of identifying and prioritizing the projects and programmes to be implemented over the financial year 2025/2026 involved all stakeholders through participatory workshops and engagements. Through this process, the efforts at national and devolved levels of government, and other relevant public institutions, were coordinated at local level with due consideration to the economic, social, environmental, legal and spatial aspects of development for the benefit of local communities. References were made to the provisions of the County Government Act, (2012); Urban Areas and Cities Act, 2011; and the Public Finance Management Act (PFMA), 2012. In addition, the plan preparation process considered provisions in various legislations including the Constitution of Kenya, 2010, National Government Coordination Act, 2013 among others

Bomet County Fiscal Strategy Paper 2025

The County Fiscal Strategy Paper lays down the foundation for the preparation of the budget and medium term expenditure framework in accordance with Section 117 of the Public Finance Management Act 2012. The document sets out the County Governments economic policies and key priority programs to be implemented in the upcoming financial year budget and Medium-Term Expenditure Framework (MTEF) in line with the County Integrated Development Plan 2023-2027. This strategy paper offers mechanisms for achieving sustainable growth and development through efficient service delivery in Bomet County. The County priorities and goals outlined herein are based on the County Integrated Development Plan (CIDP), Governor’s manifesto and the County Annual Development Plan for Financial year 2025/2026. The expenditure priorities in the Sector ceilings in this Fiscal Strategy Paper have been aligned to the Budget Policy Statement, specifically the strategic interventions articulated in the Bottom-up Economic Transformation Agenda (BETA) and anchored on the Fourth Medium Term Plan of the vision 2030. Measures will be put in place to ensure prudent expenditure and revenue management to improve the county government’s fiscal position. The County Government will adopt new measures aimed at improving own source revenue collection. This includes implementation of the Revenue Enhancement Strategy, adoption of new revenue system, improving technical capacity of staff in Revenue Department and development of revenue bills and policies which are aimed at strengthening local revenue performance. The new administrative measures already in place and policy strategies set to be implemented are expected to create a significant positive impact on own source revenue collection. The County Treasury, therefore, will identify various streams of revenue that are meant to tap resources in achieving the target. The measures being put in place will zeal potential loopholes on revenue leakages

Murang'a County School Feeding Policy 2025

This policy was developed to provide guidance on the implementation of the school meals initiative in learning institutions, abiding by the broad national goals stipulated in Vision 2030 and in line with the Constitution of Kenya 2010. The policy has incorporated information from other relevant laws, policies, and strategies that relate to education, health, and nutrition of learners in Kenya as well as promotion of farmers in the community. The policy also aims at providing overarching guidance on the implementation moderlities and coordination of the school feeding programme so that the production and distribution of appropriate food commodities, as well as access to them by learners are fully realized.........................................................

Kitui County Annual Development Plan 2026/2027

The Annual Development Plan (ADP) is prepared in accordance with Article 220 (2) of the constitution. The Public Finance Management Act, 2012, (section 126) requires each County Government to prepare ADP which is submitted for approval to the County Assembly not later than 1st September of each year. ADP provides county strategic priorities, programmes and projects to be offered to county citizens in the succeeding financial year and are selected from County Integrated Development plan (CIDP) 2023-2027. County Performance Review for the previous year (FY2024/2025) Some of prominent achievements include; Community level infrastructure development programme – over three hundred projects have been done across the county benefiting three hundred households. Disbursement of pro-poor was done to need students. Existing VTCs were renovated that; Kyuso VTC, Tseikuru VTC, Miambani VTC, Mwingi Baptist, Kanyongonyo VTC, Mutwaathi VTC, Kyatune VTC (Kyuso, Tseikuru, Miambani, Mwingi Central, Yatta Kwa Vonza, Migwani and Ikanga Kyatune) Fencing of land designated for Utalii College complete. Twambui Police station and Imuumba police station blocks were completed fenced and now are operational. Construction of Kyuso ward office is ongoing 80% complete. Construction of 80 sand dams completed and 9 sump wells constructed. 12 bore holes were drilled and equipped while 20 were repaired and equipped. 6 cluster irrigation projects completed and one solarized. 377 Parking slots marked in township ward to improve revenue. 59 posts of Streetlight installed in various places in township wards and its environs. 10,000 Households & Institutions were connected with electricity in partnership with REREC and Kenya Power. 144,000 tree seedlings were planted. 48 Solar Energy Integrated Security Lights installed in various markets across the county. Construction of Kitui County aggregation and Industrial Park (K-CAIP) ongoing. Construction of Ultra-Modern Stadium at Kivou and Kyoani is 70% complete. Kitui County Youth Development Policy done

Wajir County Fiscal Strategy Paper 2025

The County Fiscal Strategy Paper (CFSP) 2025, is the third to be prepared under the leadership of HE FCPA Ahmed Abdullahi EGH administration. The paper focuses on key medium term policies and priorities as highlighted in the Governors Manifesto and CIDP 2023/2027. The key priorities include; quality and affordable healthcare, food security, social protection, access to early childhood education, critical infrastructure development as well as building resilience to climate change shocks. Since 2022, the County Government has initiated key programmes that incude: provision of quality health care across the county; provision of clean and safe water for domestic use; infrastructure expansion and rehabilitation as well as social programs for vulnerable groups. Some of the flagship programmes/projects implemented are upgrading of Wajir referral hospital to level 5 which is ongoing, construction of County Aggregation and Industrial Park, drilling of boreholes and excavation of water pans across the county. The key challenges facing the county in offering services to the county residents still persist and include: the global supply chain disruptions; elevated prices for basic commodities, poor roads, water and energy infrastructure, public health emergencies, food insecurity and high illiteracy among others. In the medium term, the county is projected to experience suppressed rains hence leading to drought and disease outbreaks. This necessitates the county government to allocated sufficient funds towards responding to these disasters occasioned by climate change hazards

Discussion Paper No. 352 of 2024 on Towards Human Vaccine Production in Kenya: Exploring Key Pathways to Sufficient Production

This study examines human vaccine production in Kenya, focusing on key drivers, policies, and regulatory frameworks, while suggesting pathways for sufficient manufacturing through 2040. Employing future foresight methodology, it analyzes data from systematic literature reviews and expert interviews. Vaccine production is vital for Kenya due to the high morbidity and mortality from vaccine preventable diseases; the experiences from the COVID-19 pandemic; and the accelerated phase-out of vaccine supply support from the Vaccine Alliance (Gavi) before 2030. The study finds that strong government support and robust partnerships are essential for successful human vaccine production based on the experiences of leading countries. The key factors include funding from the exchequer, supported by favourable policies, regulatory frameworks, infrastructure, and R&D capabilities. It emerges that there are many opportunities for Kenya to leverage financial and technical support from global and regional organizations in its efforts to establish a vaccine industry, including the African Union. On the legal and regulatory front, Kenya faces a lack of harmony between domestic and international legal frameworks, and gaps in the adoption of international standards. These factors may hinder efforts in human vaccine production. The study recommends that the government, in collaboration with other stakeholders, enhance support for R&D and infrastructure development through national budgeting and public-private partnerships. Essential infrastructure includes formulation and fill-finish facilities, along with advanced equipment for vaccine production

Kericho County Debt Management Strategy Paper 2025

The Medium-Term Debt Management Strategy (MTDS) outlines the approaches adopted by the County government for the effective management of its debt obligations. According to Section 140 of the Public Finance Management (PFM) Act 2012, a County Executive Committee Member responsible for finance is permitted to borrow on behalf of the County Government, provided that the loan's terms and conditions are documented in writing and comply with Article 212 of the Constitution, as well as Sections 58 and 142 of the PFM Act 2012, among other stipulations. The National Treasury has established guidelines for both domestic and external borrowing by counties, aimed at facilitating collaboration between the Government of Kenya (GOK), development partners, counties, and the National Government. This ensures effective coordination not only in loan management but also in the administration of grants and other forms of assistance. The strategy delineates key priorities aimed at mitigating financial risk. Consequently, the County Government of Kericho (CGK) acknowledges the importance of exercising caution in its debt management practices to prevent excessive financial risks associated with ineffective debt management strategies. The County is dedicating substantial efforts and resources to enhance its debt management capabilities and improve risk assessment processes. This document aims to guarantee that the service and management of CGK's financial needs and payment responsibilities are fulfilled promptly and at the most economical cost over the medium to long term, while adhering to a prudent level of risk

Vihiga County Fiscal Strategy Paper 2025

The County Fiscal Strategy Paper (CFSP) is a key policy document that sets the foundation for Vihiga County’s economic and fiscal priorities for the upcoming financial year 2025/26 and the medium term. The CFSP 2025/26 has been aligned with the County Integrated Development Plan (CIDP) 2023-2027, the Bottom Up Economic Transformation Agenda (BETA) anchored on the Fourth Medium Term Plan (MTPIV) and the Kenya Vision 2030. This strategy seeks to accelerate economic growth, enhance service delivery, and promote inclusive development across all sectors in the County. It reflects the county commitment to fostering sustainable growth, strengthening fiscal responsibility, and ensuring efficient resource allocation to improve service delivery and enhance the well-being of the residents of Vihiga. This CFSP has been developed in the context of the evolving national and global economic landscape, responding to emerging opportunities and challenges. However, Vihiga County endears to remain resilient amidst the financial and developmental challenges. The County shall remain on accelerating socio-economic transformation leveraging on technology by prioritizing investments in key sectors such as agriculture, healthcare, education, infrastructure, and entrepreneurship, with a special emphasis on job creation for youth and women. The CFSP highlights the proposed strategies, priorities and programmes that will inform the preparation of the 2025/26 and medium term budget estimates, the budget ceilings in respect to Departments and Agencies, and the County Assembly. It further lays, the fiscal responsibility principles to ensure prudence and Transparency in the Management of public resources as provided in the PFM Act,2012. It also provides a framework for revenue generation, and expenditure management, ensuring that every investment made contributes directly to improving the livelihoods of the Vihiga people. As the County Government embarks on the preparation and implementation of the F/Y 2025/26 Budget estimate and the medium term, the need for transparency, accountability, inclusive governance and shared prosperity is imperative. Finally, I call upon the County Departments and other stakeholders including private sector, partners, civil society organizations, and the residents of Vihiga, to actively support and participate in the government development agenda

Tharaka Nithi County Fiscal Strategy Paper 2025

The 2025 Tharaka Nithi County Fiscal Strategy Paper is the third to be prepared under the third CIDP 2023-2027. The Paper outlines the budgeting and development framework that the County Government seeks to pursue in the 2025/26, 2026/27 and 2027/28 MTEF period. The paper focuses on key medium-term policies and priorities as highlighted in the Governors Manifesto and CIDP 2023-2027. The document further outlines the current state of the County in terms of budget implementation and specifies the set strategic priorities and policy goals together with a summary of the County government spending plans. The development framework advances achievement of the key thematic areas envisaged in the 2023-2027 CIDP as we focus on improving the livelihood of the County residents through investments in key priority areas that support increased agricultural productivity, improved healthcare, sustainable infrastructure, socio-economic empowerment, improved natural resource management and Skills development. In FY 2025/2026, the total county budget is projected at Kshs. 6784.2 million with recurrent allocated Kshs. 4,211.4 million and development Kshs. 2,572.52 million to be financed from equitable share from the national government of Ksh 14.587.14 million, conditional and unconditional additional allocations of of Kshs 1717 million, and own source revenue of Kshs 480 million. In the medium term, the projected county resources are constrained. Therefore, strict ceilings have been provided for the FY2025/2026 Budget and the Medium Term which will form the basis for departmental detailed budgets which shall be submitted to the County Assembly for approval by April 30, 2025. Furthermore, considering the limited projected resources vis a vis the development needs of the county, emphasis will be on pursuit of robust resource mobilization strategies including enhanced own source revenue collections and strategic partnerships