Multidimensional Poverty Measurement and Analysis: Chapter 1 - Introduction

This working paper presents the normative, empirical, and policy motivations for focusing on multidimensional poverty measurement and analysis in general, and one measurement approach in particular. The fundamental normative motivation is to create effective measures that better reflect poor people’s experience, so that policies using such measures reduce poverty. Such measures are needed because, empirically, income-poor households are (surprisingly) not well-matched to households carrying other basic deprivations like malnutrition; also the trends of income and non-income deprivations are not matched, and nor does growth ensure the reduction of social deprivations. And, a dashboard overlooks the interconnection between deprivations, which people experience and policies seek to address. Turning to policy, we close by discussing how the Alkire-Foster methodology we present in Working Paper 86 (“Multidimensional Poverty Measurement and Analysis: Chapter 5 - The Alkire-Foster Counting Methology”) may be used

Multidimensional Poverty Measurement and Analysis: Chapter 8 - Robustness Analysis and Statistical Inference

The design of a poverty measure involves the selection of a set of parameters and poverty figures. In most cases the measures are estimated from sample surveys. This raises the question of how conclusive particular poverty comparisons are subject to both the set of selected parameters (or variations within a plausible range) and the sample datasets. This chapter shows how to apply dominance and rank robustness tests to assess comparisons as poverty cutoffs and other parameters changes. It presents ingredients of statistical inference, including standard errors, confidence intervals, and hypothesis tests. And it discusses how robustness and statistical inference tools can be used together to assert concrete policy conclusions. An appendix presents methods for computing standard errors, including the bootstrapped standard errors

The Role of Annuity Markets in Financing Retirement

Dramatic advances in life expectancy mean that today's retirees must plan on living into their eighties, their nineties, and even beyond. Longer life expectancies are the symbol of a prosperous society, but this progress also means that some retirees will need to plan conservatively and cut back substantially on their living standards or risk living so long that they exhaust their resources. This book examines the role that life annuities can play in helping people protect themselves against such outcomes.A life annuity is an insurance product that pays out a periodic amount for as long as the annuitant is alive, in exchange for a premium. The book begins with a history of life annuity markets during the twentieth century in the United States and elsewhere. It then explores recent trends in annuity pricing and money's worth, as well as the economic value generated for purchasers of these products. The book explains the potential importance of inflation-protected annuities and stock-market-linked variable annuities in providing more complete retirement security. The concluding chapters examine life annuities in various institutional settings and the tax treatment of annuity products.retirement, annuity markets, insurance, finance, publicy policy, researc

Strategies of cooperation and punishment among students and clerical workers

We study individual behavior of students and workers in an experiment where they repeatedly faced with the same cooperative task. The data show that clerical workers differ from college students in overall cooperation rates, strategies adopted, and use of punishment opportunities. Students cooperate more than workers, and cooperation increases in both subject pools when a personal punishment option is available. Students are less likely than workers to adopt strategies of unconditional defection and more likely to select strategies of conditional cooperation. Finally, students are more likely than workers to sanction uncooperative behavior with decentralized punishment and also personal punishment when available

An Inquiry into the Rationale Behind Violent Ethnic Conflicts - a Rational Choice Perspective

The paper examines the contribution of Rational Choice Theory (RCT) to the study and explanation of violent ethnic conflicts. It seeks to identify how RC methodological individualism applies to ethnic conflict and ethnic violence and what sorts of explanations of these phenomena could be reached through a RC approach. The analytical apparatus of Game theory is employed to model and explain individuals’ reasoning and behavior in situations of mounting ethnic tension and bursting violence. The account focuses on actions of rational decision-makers in situations of pending or actual inter-group violence. Within this frame strategies that rational individuals would follow in such circumstances are examined and the aggregate effect of pursuing such strategies is presented. Building on the presentation and examination of the application of RCT (methodological individualism) to the level of individual, the analysis show how the analytical tools provided by Game theory help to explain the dynamics of inter-group relations in cases of deepening conflict and the occurrence and persistence of violence. Finally, an attempt is made to pinpoint the advantages and deficiencies of RC approach to phenomena of violent ethnic conflict.rational choice theory, methodological individualism, conflict

What does it take to grow out of recession? An error-correction approach towards growth convergence of European and transition countries

Consequences from the subsiding 2008 financial crisis on long-run economic growth are widely debated. Existing literature on previous recessions, such as Cerra and Saxena (2008), emphasizes the long-term loss inflicted on per capita GDP levels. This paper concentrates on typical business cycles in advanced European and transition countries and assumes that lower than normal growth during recessions is followed by a recovery period with above normal growth until the economy reaches its pre-crisis level. The objective is to assess the capacity to rebound, the speed of convergence towards a normal growth path as well as potential nonlinearities. Through exploiting the cointegration relationships among variables in long-run growth regressions and by employing a variety of panel error-correction models, results show a strong evidence of error-correction and different linear speed in the convergence process with the transition economies outpacing Western European countries. Our analysis is further extended into a Panel Smooth Transition Error-Correction Model (PSTR-ECM) to account for different regimes in convergence patterns according to a selection of transition variables. Whereas the velocity of convergence for European core countries exhibits a nonlinear pattern and differs with respect to price and flexibility, transition countries remain linear in their return to the growth trend. Ultimately, our results suggest that internal adjustments remain the key factors for both European and transition countries to recover from negative economic growth shocksEconomic growth; business cycles; transition economies; error-correction models; panel cointegration; smooth-transition model

Development of the Banking System in Bulgaria during the 2007-2015 period. Impact of the Global Crisis Processes

This research is dedicated to the develop­ment of the Bulgarian banking system in the pe­riod 2007-2015 under the impact of the global crisis processes. In the first part of the paper, an analysis has been made of the changes in the su­pervisory framework for the bank risks in the EU Member States, and particularly in Bulgaria, aim­ing at more efficient control and prudential supervi­sion over the credit institutions. Great importance has been attached to the detailed requirements for the banks’ capital adequacy assessment, the introduced five new capital buffers and the role of the stress-tests as a major instrument of risk management in banks. In the second part of the paper, an analysis has been carried out of the de­velopment of the Bulgarian banking system under the impact of the global financial crisis and the eurozone debt crisis. Certain key indicators of the Bulgarian banking system have been examined for the period January 2007 – May 2015, which allows the outlining of the effects of the world crisis pro­cesses on the activity of banks in Bulgaria.banks, banking system, risks in the banking system, banks’ financial indicators, financial crisi

DO trade and technology reduce asymmetries? Evidence from manufacturing industries in the EU

Are asymmetric shocks to output less important for industries which are more open to trade and more technology-intensive? Our results, obtained from a correlation analysis between growth rates of value added in thirteen manufacturing industries in eleven European countries between 1979 and 1990, clearly support the hypothesis. This finding suggests that policies which promote trade and technological innovation may help to decrease the importance of the asymmetric components of the business cycle within European countries