From the Chiang Mai Initiative to an Asian Monetary Fund

Following the 1997–1998 Asian financial crisis, financial authorities in ASEAN+3 embarked on several new initiatives for East Asia's financial cooperation, including: (i) regional economic surveillance led by the Economic Review and Policy Dialogue (ERPD); (ii) a regional liquidity support facility, called the Chiang Mai Initiative (CMI); and (iii) local-currency bond market development. The global financial crisis of 2007–2009 demonstrated the need to further strengthen East Asian financial cooperation. This paper summarizes and evaluates the progress of regional financial cooperation, particularly the ERPD, the CMI and its subsequent multilateralization (CMIM), and the ASEAN+3 Macroeconomic Research Office (AMRO). It identifies the challenges in strengthening the CMIM, ERPD, and AMRO and suggests that the CMIM and AMRO be transformed into an Asian monetary fund (AMF). The paper argues that for an AMF to emerge, ASEAN+3 authorities need to: (i) contribute part of their foreign exchange reserves to the fund; (ii) establish a secretariat in charge of all aspects of the CMIM, including its activation; and (iii) delink the CMIM from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) programs by upgrading their capacity to conduct regional surveillance, formulate independent conditionality associated with crisis lending, and monitor policy and economic performance. In the transition period, eligible member countries should be allowed to have more flexible access to the CMIM facility. The CMIM and AMRO should work with the IMF to promote East Asian financial stability, but at the same time the IMF needs to undertake significant operational and governance reforms so that it regains the trust of emerging economy members in the region.chiang mai initiative; asian monetary fund; bond market development; crisis lending; multilateralizatio

Analysis and Design of a Permanent Magnet Bi-Stable Electro-Magnetic Clutch Unit for In-Wheel Electric Vehicle Drives

Clutches have been used in internal combustion vehicles and concentrated electric vehicles (EVs) to smoothen impulsion while starting and shifting. This paper proposes a permanent magnet bi-stable electromagnetic clutch unit (PMBECU) which is specially introduced into in-wheel EVs to make the rigid connection between hub and wheel more flexible. Firstly, the operation principle of the PMBECU is illustrated. Then, the basic magnetic circuit model is presented and analyzed, followed by optimal design of the main structural parameters by investigating the PM leakage flux coefficient. Further, according to the basic electromagnetic characteristics of the PMBECU, the current pulse supply is put forward, and the minimum pulse width which enables the operation of the PMBECU and its dynamic characteristics are analyzed by an improved finite element method. Finally, a prototype machine is manufactured and tested to validate all the analysis results.clutch unit; dynamics analysis; electromagnetic design; finite element method (FEM); permanent magnet; bi-stable operatio

Commodity Currencies Revisited

I build an exchange rate strategy that trades currencies conditional on changes in the global prices of commodity indices; hence, termed “commodity strategy”. First, I document that commodity prices have signicant out-of-sample forecasting ability for the future exchange rates of several commodity exporters and importers at the daily frequency. However, I report that the reverse forecasting relationship does not survive out-of-sample testing. Second, I find a signicant cross-sectional spread, in both spot and excess returns, of 6% p.a. between the currencies that are predicted to appreciate and those that are predicted to depreciate. The returns appear to be uncorrelated to those of popular exchange rate strategies such as the carry trade and currency momentum. Furthermore, the spread in returns is not explained by traditional risk factors; however, it is partly accounted for by the strategy’s high transaction costs. Net probability can be restored by either implementing a simple market timing rule or by investing in developed markets with low costs and high liquidity.Foreign Exchange; Commodity Currencies; Asset Pricing

Análisis de gastos públicos discrecionales: La política presupuestaria de la segunda república

Este estudio tiene como objetivo ofrecer una interpretación de la política presupuestaria de los gobiernos republicanos. Quiero estudiar lo referente a la respuesta gubernamental ante el estancamiento, sino la depresión, de la economía española durante el decenio de 1930. Pienso que el tema es de la mayor importancia por las implicaciones económicas y sociales que supuso la implantación de un régimen democrático; por primera vez en España. El trabajo atiende 1) a las tesis existentes sobre la política presupuestaria, 2) a las variables y mecanismos económicos que utilizo, y 3) a la valoración de la política presupuestaria de la Segunda República.Segunda República; Economía española; Gasto público; Política presupuestaria

Inglés para fines específicos: hacia una propuesta metodológica para la enseñanza de la comprensión lectora

El presente artículo recoge parte de las investigaciones realizadas en el campo de la Psicolingüística, y se apoya en sus logros para proponer una metodología de la comprensión lectora en un curso de Inglés para Fines Específicos (E.S.P.). La primera parte del trabajo introduce brevemente los rasgos distintivos que han venido definiendo los cursos de Inglés para Fines Específicos. En la segunda parte, se exponen los principales modelos teóricos del proceso de lectura ('bottom-up' y 'top down'). Sintetizando la base teórica de dichos modelos, y basándonos esencialmente en la aproximación cognitiva, implícita en los modelos del 'top-down', proponemos una selección de destrezas lectoras, así como una selección de destrezas lingüísticas conducentes a la comprensión de textos en inglés. Finalmente, sugerimos unos breves principios metodológicos que vienen a completar nuestra aproximación al diseño de un curso de E.S.P. cuyo objetivo central es la comprensión lectora.Comprensión lectora; Destreza lingüística; Inglés

Optimal Wage Redistribution in the Presence of Adverse Selection in the Labor Market

In this paper we allude to a novel role played by the non-linear income tax system in the presence of adverse selection in the labor market due to asymmetric information between workers and firms. We show that an appropriate choice of the tax schedule enables the government to affect the wage distribution by controlling the transmission of information in the labor market. This represents an additional channel through which the government can foster the pursuit of its redistributive goals.Adverse selection, labor market, optimal taxation, pooling, redistributio

University-enterprise Interaction in Brazil: The Role of the Public Research Infrastructure

This paper discusses the university-enterprise interactions in the Brazilian innovation system by focusing on the characteristics of the public research infrastructure which affects its propensity to interact with the industrial sector. Logistic regressions have been used to identify, in a wide set of explanatory variables, the characteristics of the research infrastructure which increase its probability of supplying technological services to firms. Besides the primary data collected from a survey carried out in a sample of institutions related to the Brazilian Ministry of Science, Technology and Innovation (MCTI), data concerning the scientific and technological production of the researchers affiliated to each laboratory have also been used in the regressions. The choice of the explanatory variables was based in a brief literature review on the role of the research infrastructure in the national innovation systems. Aiming at supporting the discussion of the results of the regressions, this review also included a brief report of the recent interactions between the research infrastructure and the industrial sector in Brazil. The main findings of the logistic regressions are: i) the size of the laboratory (as measured by the number of affiliated researchers) and of the qualification of its research team positively and significantly affects its propensity to interact with the industrial sector; ii) multidisciplinary laboratories tend to interact more with the industrial sector than laboratories focused on a single field of expertise; iii) there seems to be a tradeoff between scientific publications and market oriented research, since the number of papers published by the affiliated researchers is negatively correlated to the probability of supplying technological services to firms

Alternation Bias and Sums of Identically Distributed Monetary Lotteries

The outcome distribution of a sum of identical monetary lotteries ( ) is described with a Markov model. A decision maker with the alternation bias believes in more negative autocorrelation between lotteries and perceives as a less risky asset (lower variance) than a rational agent does. Also the expected utility of for a risk averse (risk seeking) individual is higher (lower) if she is a believer in the alternation bias. This theoretical result can be applied to the analysis of decisions on repeated investments and turns to be a plausible explanation for Samuelson's fallacy of large numbers..alternation bias; repeated lotteries, expected utility, risk aversion, Markov chain; behavioural financ

El impacto de la expansión de la educación preescolar en uruguay

In this paper we assess on the impact of the expansion of public preschool education supply carried out in Uruguay during 1996-2000 on subsequent educational performance. The impact of the expansion of preschool education on the probability of lag and dropout in secondary education are analyzed using an alternative to the traditional differences-in-differences methodology that allows us to exploit the heterogeneity in treatment intensity recorded for each region and cohort affected by the program. We find that the expansion of groups managed to reduce the probability of both lag and drop out in highschool, especially when we consider the expansion aimed at 4 year-olds, who faced the largest increase in coverage during the period. Moreover, we identify the circumstances that affect the opportunities available to individuals when it comes to achieving a certain educational result, while studying the program's impact on inequality of opportunity. We find that it would be necessary to redistribute 5 to 15% of the opportunities associated with drop out and lag respectively to ensure full equality of opportunity. Comparing these results with those obtained in a counterfactual situation in which the expansion of preschool groups had not existed, it is concluded that the increase in supply contributed to reducing inequality of educational opportunity in a comparable magnitude to that obtained if income of all households in the sample was equalized.preschool education, inequality of opportunity, impact evaluatio