Navigating New Trade Horizons: Supporting Exporters in a World of Change

In a dynamic global landscape, the role of UK Export Finance (UKEF) and other export credit agencies (ECAs) has never been more important. Access to finance is critical for exporters as it enables them to invest in production, expand operations, manage cash flow and mitigate trade risks. However, businesses face challenges in securing export finance and trade credit insurance as geopolitical and trade megatrends lead to increased political, market and credit risks. Drawing on qualitative data from 35 semi-structured interviews and expert discussions and based on the Futures Triangle analytical framework, this white paper analyses the geopolitical and trade megatrends that UKEF and other ECAs will face in the coming years. It presents novel findings about the implications for ECA mandates, strategies, products and operations: The evolution of mandates towards a “growth promoter”, the need to further scale up operations, the use of big data and artificial intelligence for risk analysis and forecasting, and the need to balance multiple and conflicting priorities, including export growth, support for small and medium-sized exporters, inclusive trade, climate action, and positive impact in developing markets

De-escalating aggression in acute inpatient mental health settings: a behaviour change theory-informed, secondary qualitative analysis of staff and patient perspectives

Background: De-escalation is often advocated to reduce harm associated with violence and use of restrictive interventions, but there is insufficient understanding of factors that influence de-escalation behaviour in practice. For the first time, using behaviour change and implementation science methodology, this paper aims to identify the drivers that will enhance de-escalation in acute inpatient and psychiatric intensive care mental health settings. Methods: Secondary analysis of 46 qualitative interviews with ward staff (n = 20) and patients (n = 26) informed by the Theoretical Domains Framework. Results: Capabilities for de-escalation included knowledge (impact of trauma on memory and self-regulation and the aetiology and experience of voice hearing) and skills (emotional self-regulation, distress validation, reducing social distance, confirming autonomy, setting limits and problem-solving). Opportunities for de-escalation were limited by dysfunctional risk management cultures/ relationships between ward staff and clinical leadership, and a lack of patient involvement in safety maintenance. Motivation to engage in de-escalation was limited by negative emotion associated with moral formulations of patients and internal attributions for behaviour. Conclusion: In addition to training that enhances knowledge and skills, interventions to enhance de-escalation should target ward and organisational cultures, as well as making fundamental changes to the social and physical structure of inpatient mental health wards. Psychological interventions targeting negative emotion in staff are needed to increase motivation. This paper provides a new evidence-based framework of indicative changes that will enhance de-escalation in adult acute mental health inpatient and PICU settings

Stay Home: Mapping the New Domestic Regime

This paper argues that a new ‘domestic regime’ has taken hold in Anglo-American economies since 2008. The combination of austere fiscal policy and loose monetary policy produced sustained house-price inflation in an otherwise stagnant economy. This combined with broadband-enabled digital platforms, a highly flexible labour market, and a routinely undervalued social reproductive sector transformed how capitalism operates in these economies. Taking the United Kingdom as a central case, our goal in this paper is to articulate what constitutes a ‘domestic regime’, and to locate this concept within wider sociological and political-economic debates. To adequately grasp the contemporary regime, we suggest that it needs to be considered in all its multifaceted, interlocking dimensions: the financial, the infrastructural, the reproductive and the productive

Intimate partner violence and children's health outcomes

A growing body of literature has established that childhood health is a crucial determinant of human capital formation. Shocks experienced in utero and during early life may have far-reaching consequences that extend well into adulthood. Nevertheless, there is relatively little evidence regarding the effects of parental behaviour on child health. This paper contributes to the literature by examining the impact of intimate partner violence (IPV) on the child's health production function. Using data from the UK's Millennium Cohort Study and leveraging information on both child health and IPV, our analysis reveals that exposure to IPV is negatively associated to child's health. Children witnessing IPV in their household see their probability of being in excellent health reduced by 7 percentage points. Our results also suggest that children exposed to IPV are subject to increased morbidity, manifested in elevated risks of hearing and respiratory problems, as well as long-term health conditions and are less likely to get fully immunised

Surface gravity wave-induced drift of floating objects in the diffraction regime

Floating objects will drift due to the action of surface gravity waves. This drift will depart from that of a perfect Lagrangian tracer due to both viscous effects (non-potential flow) and wave–body interaction (potential flow). We examine the drift of freely floating objects in regular (non-breaking) deep-water wave fields for object sizes that are large enough to cause significant diffraction. Systematic numerical simulations are performed using a hybrid numerical solver, qaleFOAM, which deals with both viscosity and wave–body interaction. For very small objects, the model predicts a wave-induced drift equal to the Stokes drift. For larger objects, the drift is generally greater and increases with object size (we examine object sizes up to 10% of the wavelength). The effects of different shapes, sizes and submergence depths and steepnesses are examined. Furthermore, we derive a ‘diffraction-modified Stokes drift’ akin to Stokes (Trans. Camb. Phil. Soc., vol. 8, 1847, pp. 411–455), but based on the combination of incident, diffracted and radiated wave fields, which are based on potential-flow theory and obtained using the boundary element method. This diffraction-modified Stokes drift explains both qualitatively and quantitatively the increase in drift. Generally, round objects do not diffract the wave field significantly and do not experience a significant drift enhancement as a result. For box-shape objects, drift enhancement is greater for larger objects with greater submergence depths (we report an increase of 92% for simulations without viscosity and 113% with viscosity for a round-cornered box whose size is 10% of the wavelength). We identify the specific standing wave pattern that arises near the object because of diffraction as the main cause of the enhanced drift. Viscosity plays a small positive role in the enhanced drift behaviour of large objects, increasing the drift further by approximately 20%

Sebastián Gil-Riaño, 2023. The Remnants of Race Science: UNESCO and Economic Development in the Global South

This is a book review of: Sebastián Gil-Riaño. 2023. The Remnants of Race Science: UNESCO and Economic Development in the Global South. New York: Columbia University Press. Pp. 392. Hardback £117.00, ISBN 9780231194341

DISYRE: Diffusion-Inspired SYnthetic REstoration for Unsupervised Anomaly Detection

Unsupervised Anomaly Detection (UAD) techniques aim to identify and localize anomalies without relying on annotations, only leveraging a model trained on a dataset known to be free of anomalies. Diffusion models learn to modify inputs x to increase the probability of it belonging to a desired distribution, i.e., they model the score function ∇x log p(x). Such a score function is potentially relevant for UAD, since ∇x log p(x) is itself a pixel-wise anomaly score. However, diffusion models are trained to invert a corruption process based on Gaussian noise and the learned score function is unlikely to generalize to medical anomalies. This work addresses the problem of how to learn a score function relevant for UAD and proposes DISYRE: Diffusion-Inspired SYnthetic REstoration. We retain the diffusion-like pipeline but replace the Gaussian noise corruption with a gradual, synthetic anomaly corruption so the learned score function generalizes to medical, naturally occurring anomalies. We evaluate DISYRE on three common Brain MRI UAD benchmarks and substantially outperform other methods in two out of the three tasks

On Copyright Utilitarianism

The state should grant copyright to authors only when doing so promotes utility; so goes the utilitarian argument for copyright law. In recent years, however, this argument has faced three criticisms. As a normative matter, critics argue that a utilitarian copyright system is neither just nor attractive. As an epistemological matter, critics argue that society cannot ever know whether copyright promotes utility. And as an interpretive matter, critics argue that utilitarianism fails to appreciate what copyright is really all about: progress of the sciences and useful arts. And so, an increasing number of scholars conclude that copyright should be awarded, not when doing so aids utility, but when doing so secures natural rights or promotes democratic norms. This Article refines and defends the utilitarian argument for copyright law. The Article departs the company of prior utilitarians, however, in its conceptualization of “utility.” Taking inspiration from John Stuart Mill’s defense of utilitarianism, the Article argues that utility in copyright cannot be understood in purely quantitative terms. Of course, the overall amount of creative work that the copyright system generates matters a great deal; but it is not the only thing that matters. The type of creative work incentivized by the system also matters: creative work that feeds the mind, sparks feelings and imagination, and promotes moral sentiments provide copyright’s “higher pleasures.” A truly utilitarian copyright system is, therefore, one that produces more and better creative work. A utilitarian copyright of this kind is normatively attractive, epistemologically realistic, and interpretively consistent with the constitutional structure of American copyright law

He Said, She Said: Gender Differences in the Disclosure of Positive and Negative Information

Research on gender differences in (self-)disclosure has produced mixed results, and, where differences have emerged, they may be an artifact of the measures employed. The present paper explores whether gender – defined as self-identified membership in one’s sociocultural group – can indeed account for differences in the desire and propensity to divulge information to others. We additionally identify a possible moderator for such differences. In three studies employing two distinct research approaches – a free recall task for the extreme desire to disclose (Study 1, N = 195) and scaled responses to scenarios that manipulate valence experimentally in an exploratory study (Study 2, N = 547) and a preregistered replication (Study 3, N = 405) – we provide evidence of a robust interaction between gender and information valence. Male participants appear similar to female participants in their desire and likelihood to disclose positive information but are less likely than women to want to share negative information with others, and less likely to ultimately act on that desire. Men are reportedly more motivated than women to disclose as a means of self-enhancement, and self-reports reveal that women perceive their sharing behavior to be relatively normative, while men believe themselves to be more withholding than what is optimal. Information disclosure is increasingly pervasive and permanent in the digital age, and is accompanied by an array of social and psychological consequences. Given their disparate disclosing behaviors, men and women may thus be differentially advantaged by, or susceptible to, the positive and negative consequences of information sharing