Assessing Deception Projection via OSINT: The Case of the Ukraine 2022 Counter-Offensive

Introduction: As the intelligence community observed the evolution of open-source intelligence (OSINT) and the development of the extensive data landscape, several new challenges to traditional approaches to warfighting emerged. One of these challenges was the increasing intensity of the illusory truth effect and its effects on operational timeline planning. How effective are these Emerging Disruptive Technologies (EDT)-driven open sources in projecting a battlespace deception, and what are the limitations and risks? To offer a substantive answer to this question, this study will use the Russian war of aggression against Ukraine as a case study specifically focusing on a projected deception using OSINT in support of the Ukrainian Kherson Offensive, which began on August 29, 2022, and the Kharkiv Offensive, which started in September 2022.Methods: The analysis aimed to identify and quantify instances where the Ukrainian deception storyline was repeated across various media outlets and social media platforms. It used an OSINT scraper to aggregate and filter the data. Then, a simple quantitative analysis was used to cross-reference the intensity of the illusory truth effect with the Russian operational timeline for troop movements, and a conclusion was drawn.Results: The number of ‘hits’ scrapped during a specific period was unexpectedly high, indicating a high level of engagement from both mobile and desktop devices. The data revealed a clear connection between increasing illusory truth intensity and Russian troop movements in the field. The study also pointed out the limitations of large-scale social media data in confidently establishing cause-and-effect relationships between influence and physical actions. It also demonstrated how the growing risk of the illusory truth effect, driven by OSINT and unrestricted military access to social media, could potentially compromise the compartmentalised operational command and control of military organisations through the personal devices of individuals involved in the command-and-control processes. Conclusion: In an information environment enhanced by EDT, the illusory truth effect is a powerful tool for deceptive projection in the information domain. This effect is amplified if access is gained to compartmentalised operational decision-making processes within the target warfighting organisation. Consequently, from an operational security perspective, the intelligence community must address the threat of an illusory truth breach of command & control processes via OSINT collection in an EDT-enhanced information environment

A Comparative and Systematic Review of Technical Analysis-Based Forecasting Techniques: Global V/S Indian Perspectives

This paper conducts a systematic review of Technical Analysis (TA) based forecasting research from 2013 to 2022, encompassing global and Indian authors. It addresses the evolving landscape of financial forecasting, including tool choices, variable selection, error measurement, and accuracy. Employing the PRISMA framework, we analyze 176 papers (88 global, 88 Indian) to examine trends in TA research. Key inquiries involve the publication trends, popular forecasting approaches, consideration of Transaction Costs and Data Snooping Bias, research time cycles, outcomes, and performance metrics. The study reveals that Indian researchers favor TA-based machine learning (ML) techniques, while global counterparts rely more on manual forecasting methods. Notably, many studies neglect to incorporate ‘transaction costs’ and ‘data snooping bias’ in their models. Most research focuses on forecasting within a 5–10-year timeframe, with TA-based techniques generally viewed as profitable. However, Indian authors tend to prioritize risk mitigation in their models, in contrast to global authors who often measure performance through return and profitability metrics. Additionally, this paper critiques the prevailing forecasting techniques, highlighting gaps in both global and Indian research. Its aim is to aid future researchers in identifying gaps, formulating research questions, and understanding methodological considerations within financial forecasting

Cashless Gambling: Potential Money Laundering and Responsible Gambling Initiatives

Recent Australian government inquiries into casino, club, and hotel activities identified significant money laundering, and/or junket and links to organised crimes, and governance failings. The findings of two Royal Commissions determined that casinos in Sydney and Melbourne were not suitable entities to hold a gaming licence. Regulators gave these casinos two years to address concerns raised during these inquiries. One recommendation, supported by media reports and public health advocates, suggested the implementation of cashless gambling, that is, the use of non-cash forms of gambling (e.g., digital wallets, QR codes, or gambling debit cards). Others have expressed concerns about counterproductive or unintended consequences of tokenization of money and difficulties in monitoring expenditure. Although potentially useful as an anti-money laundering initiative, the effective use of cashless gambling as a harm minimisation/responsible gambling initiative requires careful consideration of its architecture, that is, the structure, processes and oversight of its implementation and operation. In this paper, we describe the complexities of cashless gambling and highlight relevant issues that need to be addressed. The findings of the various inquiries also raise serious questions regarding the proportion of funds commonly ascribed to individuals with gambling disorders. We conclude that key stakeholders (e.g., government, industry, financial and academic) need to collaborate to develop an optimal cashless gambling structure that achieves its intended objectives for responsible gambling over and above anti-money laundering

Behavioral Finance Approach to the Time-Varying Return-Volatility Relation: Global Evidence

This study investigates the asymmetric return-volatility relation for 21 major global market indices for the period 1998–2018, employing quantile regression methodology. The results show that the transmission of good news shocks and bad news shocks has contrasting implications for the tails of the return-volatility relation. During the periods of falling prices, the sentiment-driven noise traders increase the volatility levels. In contrast, during the periods of rising prices, the contrarian actions by the more informed traders reduce the volatility levels. Overall, the results support the affect, representativeness, and extrapolation bias heuristic theories of investor behavior

A Case for the Human Rights Approach to Climate Change: India

Climate change can no longer be viewed through the singular environmental lens; its impact on human rights must be considered to gain a comprehensive understanding of its consequences. Not only is climate change devastating the environment, it is depriving many of the enjoyment of their homes and basic human necessities. Consideration must be given to the potential benefits human rights law can offer in the fight against the consequences of climate change. Unfortunately, there appears to be hesitation about implementing the human rights approach. Some arguments have leaned in favour of the environmental approach due to concerns about the inability to assign accountability and the possibility that including the human rights approach will obscure the innate value of the environment. Hence, the objective of this article is to explore the importance and benefits of adopting a human rights approach to foster a balance between the two approaches. This article focuses on India which, due to its significant climatic disturbances, serves as an ideal example of the human rights violations resulting from climate change. The method used in the study underpinning this article was a doctrinal review of the relevant literature, including journal articles, legislation, and international legal documents. The debate of which approach is more effective may continue for years to come, with both sides presenting plausible arguments. However, the solely environmental approach has not proved to be the most effective. Implementing the human rights approach to climate change should be intentionally considered without nullifying the environmental approach

The Economic Perspective of the Law of International Institutions

This article reviews through an economic lense the law of international institutions,which through managing the relationship among states is gradually leading to the emergence of a global regime with imperial tendencies. Nations express their interest in belonging to international institutions for the purpose of gaining socio-economic and political benefits achievable under a harmonised system of mutual dependence. Although this article does not seek to analyse whether the developing nations are better off belonging to international institutions, it nonetheless reviews the rationale behind developing nations maintaining their membership of international institutions despite the widening gap between the rich and the poor nations. The strategic positioning of the international institutions sways favourably towards indirectly aiding developed countries to continue dominating the developing nations. Exercise of power by international institutions bring to the fore that states - the less developed states in particular - are gradually losing their sovereignty and inherent power to superintend their domestic affairs without external influence. This accentuates the notion that international institutions are gradually assuming an imperial status, which has successfully replaced colonialism with neo-colonialism, to be favoured on the global market. The international legal movement is thus reflected in and by economic consequences unfavourable to developing nations

Copyright and Generative AI

This is an opinion piece looking at the UK legal copyright framework, human creativity, generative artificial intelligence, and if you need to get permission from the creators or owners of on-line content such as writing, photos, music and film to scrape their content to build AI systems. There is huge concern in the UK’s economically vital and “soft power” driving creative industries, especially when the AI output competes directly with the very content that is used to make the generative AI tool work in the first place. There are essentially two opposing views and this article presents one side

Are English Football Betting Markets Efficient in the Presence of an Exogenous Shock? Testing the Semi-Strong Form of the Efficient Market Hypothesis Given the Effect of the Covid-19 Induced Ghost Games on the English Premier League and the English Football League Championship Football Betting Markets

Football betting markets can be used to test the Efficient Market Hypothesis. This paper adds to literature in this field by investigating the effect of an exogenous shock to the English football betting markets. We analyse whether market expectations were correctly priced during the Covid-19 induced ghost game period. We find that the loss of home advantage is not fully incorporated into the betting odds. Hence, we find evidence of a violation to the semi-strong form of the Efficient Market Hypothesis. Given our analysis we are able to demonstrate some simple betting strategies that bettors could have used to yield high profits. Moreover, we carry out robustness checks with five additional betting providers and produce concordant findings