A probabilistic view on predictive constructions for Bayesian learning

Given a sequence $X=(X_1,X_2,\ldots)$ of random observations, a Bayesian forecaster aims to predict $X_{n+1}$ based on $(X_1,\ldots,X_n)$ for each $n\ge 0$. To this end, in principle, she only needs to select a collection $\sigma=(\sigma_0,\sigma_1,\ldots)$, called ``strategy" in what follows, where $\sigma_0(\cdot)=P(X_1\in\cdot)$ is the marginal distribution of $X_1$ and $\sigma_n(\cdot)=P(X_{n+1}\in\cdot\mid X_1,\ldots,X_n)$ the $n$-th predictive distribution. Because of the Ionescu-Tulcea theorem, $\sigma$ can be assigned directly, without passing through the usual prior/posterior scheme. One main advantage is that no prior probability is to be selected. In a nutshell, this is the predictive approach to Bayesian learning. A concise review of the latter is provided in this paper. We try to put such an approach in the right framework, to make clear a few misunderstandings, and to provide a unifying view. Some recent results are discussed as well. In addition, some new strategies are introduced and the corresponding distribution of the data sequence $X$ is determined. The strategies concern generalized P\'olya urns, random change points, covariates and stationary sequences

I fattori di contenuto e di contesto che facilitano o ostacolano l’avvio, lo svolgimento e l’impatto della Ricerca-Formazione

l presente capitolo intende restituire gli esiti di una riflessione, durata due anni, che questo sottogruppo di ricerca del CRESPI ha avviato il 15 novem-bre 2022. L’obiettivo è stato quello di individuare i fattori legati a caratteri-stiche della professione docente e dei contesti scolastici in grado di condi-zionare lo svolgimento di percorsi di Ricerca-Formazione (da questo mo-mento R-F) e di influenzarne l’impatto

The Consequences of Promoting Data Literacy Among Graduate Students

We study the impact of a program designed to enhance data literacy on graduate students’ skills and academic outcomes in a large Italian university. The program (i.e. a minor) targets students who are expected to have weak quantitative competences and offers 120-hours training focused on improving the ability to interpret and process data, in addition to the regular courses of the master program in which students are enrolled (i.e. their major). The admission process to the minor is characterized by rationing, resolved by random assignment of available slots to applicants. Exploiting the resulting exogenous variation for identification, we find that the program largely improved digital literacy of participants with low pre-treatment levels of numeracy. Despite the additional effort required by the program, we can rule out any slowdown in the progress of the academic career in the major master program of participating students

Cefiderocol for the Treatment of Nosocomial Bloodstream Infections Caused by Stenotrophomonas maltophilia: A Case Series and Literature Review

Introduction: The treatment of Stenotrophomonas maltophilia bloodstream infections (BSI) remains challenging due to the organism's intrinsic multidrug resistance and the potential side effects of commonly used first-line antibiotics. Methods: Here, we describe four cases of S. maltophilia BSI treated with cefiderocol (≥ 72 h) in different Italian hospitals. Additionally, we conducted a PubMed search to identify other studies reporting cases of S. maltophilia BSI managed with cefiderocol. Results: We reviewed a total of 8 cases of S. maltophilia BSI [median age 52.5 years (Q1–Q3 27.5–61.0), 50% males] treated with cefiderocol, including ours. BSI sources were mainly central venous catheters (62.5%) and the lower respiratory tract (25.0%). Cefiderocol was used as first-line therapy in 87.5% of patients (7/8), with a median treatment duration of 14 days (IQR 6.2–16.0). Combination therapy was administered in 62.5% of cases. Infection source control was required in 75.0% and achieved in 40.0%. Clinical success was observed in 62.5% of patients, with microbiological eradication in 87.5%. In-hospital mortality occurred in 37.5% of cases, with one death directly attributable to S. maltophilia. No significant differences were observed in terms of outcomes between cefiderocol monotherapy and combination therapy. Conclusions: Based on our findings and a review of the literature, cefiderocol-based regimens show promise as an effective treatment option for S. maltophilia BSI, warranting further investigation in larger studies

Enhancing Hectare-Scale Groundwater Recharge Estimation by Integrating Data From Cosmic-Ray Neutron Sensing Into Soil Hydrological Modeling

Vadose zone models, calibrated with state variables, may offer a robust approach for deriving groundwater recharge. Cosmic-ray neutron sensing (CRNS) provides soil moisture over a large support volume (horizontal extent of hectares) and offers the opportunity to estimate water fluxes at this scale. However, the horizontal and vertical sensitivity of the method results in an inherently weighted water content, which poses a challenge for its application in soil hydrologic modeling. We systematically assess calibrating a soil hydraulic model in HYDRUS 1D at a cropped field site. Calibration was performed using different field-scale soil moisture time series and the ability of the model to represent root zone soil moisture and derive groundwater recharge was assessed. As our benchmark, we used a distributed point sensor network from within the footprint of the CRNS. Models calibrated on CRNS data or combinations of CRNS with deeper point measurements resulted in cumulative groundwater recharge comparable to the benchmark. While models based exclusively on CRNS data do not represent the root zone soil moisture dynamics adequately, combining CRNS with profile soil moisture overcomes this limitation. Models calibrated on CRNS data also perform well in timing the downward flux compared to an independent estimate based on soil water tension measurements. However, the latter provides quantitative groundwater recharge estimates spanning a wide range of values, including unrealistic highs exceeding local annual precipitation. Conversely, modeled groundwater recharge based on the distributed sensor network or on CRNS resulted in estimates ranging between 30% and 40% of annual precipitation

Navigating a transportation system challenge with hybrid fuzzy stochastic multi-choice travel time and reliability: an application to maritime transportation

In a transportation network, a diverse range of carriers, time alternatives, and cost options lead to the emergence of multi-choice parameters. Moreover, the uncertain nature and the interplay of these factors exacerbate the complexity of decision-making processes in transportation planning. Transportation in an uncertain environment requires flexibility and the ability to adapt quickly. Transportation systems capable of adjusting to diverse conditions can effectively deal with challenges and achieve optimal performance.this paper investigates a time-reliability two-objective uncertain multi-choice scenario for the transportation problem in a multi-commodity network. The proposed Multi-Commodity Network Flow (MCNF) problem has a fractional objective function with multi-choice, fuzzy random, and fuzzy variables. The probability-possibility approach handles the uncertainty and the Lagrange interpolating polynomial represents the relationship between alternative choices. The Charnes–Cooper variable transformation method converts the fractional problem into its deterministic equivalent form. A real-world example of general cargo shipment services is used to assess the model's effectiveness

Il progetto Horizon Europe StopUP per la qualità delle acque in ambito urbano

Negli ultimi anni, importanti progressi sono stati compiuti a livello europeo nella protezione delle acque dolci, grazie all’attuazione della Direttiva sul trattamento delle acque reflue urbane (Urban Waste Water Treatment Directive, UWWTD). Tuttavia, l’inquinamento urbano rappresenta ancora una seria minaccia per la qualità dei corpi idrici ricettori. La recente revisione della direttiva, approvata dal Consiglio dell’Unione Europea nel novembre 2024, ha messo in luce due principali fonti di inquinamento ancora critiche: • le acque di sfioro, ovvero le acque che durante gli eventi di pioggia, nei sistemi di drenaggio misti, sono immesse direttamente nei ricettori, senza trattamento; • le acque di dilavamento, quelle che scorrono sulle superfici urbane e vengono scaricate nei corpi idrici ricettori tramite i sistemi di drenaggio separato

La "Via della Conoscenza", in Next. Quaderni di Lavoro 2

Si tratta della presentazione delle fasi di avanzamento della “Via della Conoscenza”, la linea che connette e valorizza tutto il piano integrato della “Rete metropolitana per la conoscenza”, il principale progetto che caratterizzerà il tessuto urbano nei prossimi anni. A seguito di un sopralluogo eseguito a piedi, della raccolta di fotografie, di analisi del materiale fornito dalla Fondazione Innovazione Urbana e di un recente colloquio con Michele D’Oria, (che segue tecnicamente lo stato di avanzamento dei lavori) si segnala come la dimensione materiale della Via della Conoscenza è poca cosa rispetto a quanto contenuto nel piano del mandato strategico del Comune

The eROSITA Final Equatorial Depth Survey (eFEDS). The hard X-ray selected sample

Context. During its calibration and performance verification phase, the eROSITA instrument aboard the Spectrum-RG satellite performed a uniform wide-area X-ray survey of approximately 140 deg2, known as the eROSITA Final Equatorial Depth Survey (eFEDS). Aims. The primary aim of eFEDS is to demonstrate the scientific performance to be expected at the end of the eight-pass eROSITA all-sky survey. This survey will provide the first focussed image of the whole sky in the hard X-ray (>2 keV) bandpass. The expected source population in this energy range is thus of great interest, particularly for AGN studies. Methods. We used a 2.3-5 keV selection to construct a sample of 246 point-like hard X-ray sources for further study and characterisation. These sources are classified as either extragalactic (∼90%) or Galactic (∼10%), with the former consisting overwhelmingly of AGN and the latter active stars. We concentrated our further analysis on the extragalactic AGN sample, describing their X-ray and multi-wavelength properties and comparing them to the eFEDS main AGN sample selected in the softer 0.2-2.3 keV band. Results. The eROSITA hard band selects a subsample of sources that is a factor of more than ten brighter than the eFEDS main sample. The AGN within the hard population reach up to z = 3.2 but on the whole, they are relatively nearby, with median z = 0.34 compared to z = 0.94 for the main sample. The hard survey probes typical luminosities in the range log LX = 43-46. The X-ray spectral analysis shows significant intrinsic absorption (with log NH > 21) in ∼20% of the sources, with a hard X-ray power law continuum with mean < Λ >= 1.83 ± 0.04, which is typical of AGN, but slightly harder than the soft-selected eROSITA sample. Around 10% of the hard sample show a significant 'soft excess' component. The sampled black hole mass distribution in the eFEDS broad-line AGN population is consistent with that of the deeper COSMOS survey that probes a higher redshift population. On the other hand, the Eddington ratios appear systematically lower, which is consistent with the idea that the decline in SMBH activity since z ∼ 1 is due to a reduction in the typical accretion rate, rather than a shift towards activity in lower-mass black holes. Conclusions. The eFEDS hard sample provides a preview of what can be expected from the eRASS final survey in terms of data quality. This pilot survey indicates the power of eROSITA to shed new light on the demographics and evolution of AGN, and the potential for discovery of new and rare populations

Caso Almasri: una discutibile interpretazione della legge di cooperazione dell'Italia con la CPI ha portato alla scarcerazione del primo ricercato arrestato sul suolo europeo nell'ambito delle indagini in Libia

Dopo l’arresto e il rilascio di Mohammed Abedini Najafabadi, un altro caso di cooperazione giudiziaria volta alla consegna di un individuo torna a scuotere l’opinione pubblica italiana. Questa volta la vicenda coinvolge le relazioni giuridiche con la Corte penale internazionale e la persona coinvolta è il generale Najeem Osema Almasri Habish, capo della polizia giudiziaria libica, in relazione al quale, il 18 gennaio scorso, la Corte penale internazionale aveva emesso un mandato di arresto per crimini di guerra e contro l’umanità relativamente a fatti commessi nella prigione di Mitiga dal 15 febbraio 2015 in po