Variability and trend of the north west Australia rainfall: observations and coupled climate modeling

Since 1950, there has been an increase in rainfall over North West Australia (NWA), occurring mainly during the Southern Hemisphere (SH) summer season. A recent study using 20th century multi-member ensemble simulations in a global climate model forced with and without increasing anthropogenic aerosols suggests that the rainfall increase is attributable to increasing Northern Hemisphere aerosols. The present study investigates the dynamics of the observed trend toward increased rainfall and compares the observed trend with that generated in the model forced with increasing aerosols. We find that the observed positive trend in rainfall is projected onto two modes of variability. The first mode is associated with an anomalously low mean sea level pressure (MSLP) off NWA instigated by the enhanced sea surface temperature (SST) gradients towards the coast. The associated cyclonic flows bring high moisture air to northern Australia, leading to an increase in rainfall. The second mode is associated with an anomalously high MSLP over much of the Australian continent; the anticyclonic circulation pattern with northwesterly flows west of 130°E and generally opposite flows in northeastern Australia, determine that when rainfall is anomalously high, west of 130oE, rainfall is anomalously low east of this longitude. The sum of the upward trends in these two modes compares well to the observed increasing trend pattern. The modeled rainfall trend, however, is generated by a different process. The model suffers from an equatorial cold-tongue bias: the tongue of anomalies associated with El Niño-Southern Oscillation extends too far west into the eastern Indian Ocean. Consequently, there is an unrealistic relationship in the SH summer between Australian rainfall and eastern Indian Ocean SST: the rise in SST is associated with an increasing rainfall over NWA. In the presence of increasing aerosols, a significant SST increase occurs in the eastern tropical Indian Ocean. As a result, the modeled rainfall increase in the presence of aerosol forcing is accounted for by these unrealistic relationships. It is not clear whether, in a model without such defects, the observed trend can be generated by increasing aerosols. Thus, the impact of aerosols on Australian rainfall remains an open question

The effect of ENSO-induced rainfall and circulation changes on the direct and indirect radiative forcing from Indonesian biomass-burning aerosols

Emissions of biomass-burning aerosols from the Indonesian region are known to vary in response to rainfall anomalies associated with the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO). For the severe El Niño-related drought in 1997, there have been several attempts to estimate the direct radiative forcing from increased aerosol emissions over Indonesia, as well as the associated feedbacks on climate. However, these estimates have not considered indirect aerosol effects. Another question that has not been addressed is whether the effect of ENSO-related circulation and rainfall anomalies on radiative forcing is significant relative to the effect of changes in emissions. In this study, we analyse the direct and first indirect radiative forcing from El Niño-related increased emissions of Indonesian biomass-burning aerosols, with and without the influence of ENSO-related rainfall and circulation anomalies. <br><br> We compare two experiments that are performed with the CSIRO-Mk3.6 atmospheric global climate model (GCM). The first experiment (AMIP) consists of a pair of runs that respectively represent El Niño and La Niña conditions. In these runs, the distribution of aerosols is simulated under the influence of realistic Indonesian biomass-burning aerosol emissions and sea surface temperatures (SSTs) for 1997 (El Niño) and 2000 (La Niña). The second experiment (CLIM) is identical to AMIP, but is forced by climatological SSTs, so that in CLIM meteorological differences between 1997 and 2000 are suppressed. <br><br> The comparison of AMIP and CLIM shows that the aerosol radiative forcing anomalies associated with ENSO (El Niño minus La Niña) are substantially stronger when ENSO-related SST anomalies are taken into account. For the first indirect effect, the influence of SST-induced changes in rainfall and circulation exceeds that of changes in emissions. For the direct aerosol forcing, the influence of changes in SSTs and emissions are of comparable magnitude. Averaged over the Indonesian region (5.6° N–11.2° S, 96.6° E–150.9° E), the first indirect forcing is −0.7 Wm<sup>−2</sup> in CLIM and −2.2 Wm<sup>−2</sup> in AMIP during the months July to November. The direct aerosol forcing at the top of the atmosphere (surface) is −1.0 (−5.3) Wm<sup>−2</sup> in CLIM and −1.8 (−9.1) Wm<sup>−2</sup> in AMIP during the same period. <br><br> Our results suggest that (a) the indirect aerosol effect from biomass-burning aerosols is strong enough to play an important role for impact assessments, and (b) that impacts of biomass-burning aerosols would be considerably underestimated if feedbacks of ENSO-related SST variations on radiative forcing are not taken into account

Precipitation changes in a GCM resulting from the indirect effects of anthropogenic aerosols

Peer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/94948/1/grl13844.pd

Cloud droplet spectral dispersion and the indirect aerosol effect: Comparison of two treatments in a GCM, Geophys

[1] Two parameterizations of cloud droplet spectral dispersion and their impact on the indirect aerosol effect are compared in a global climate model. The earlier scheme specifies b, the ratio of droplet effective radius to volumemean radius, in terms of N, the cloud droplet number concentration. The new scheme specifies b in terms of mean droplet mass (L/N), where L is liquid water content, to account for the effect of variations in L. For low to moderate N, the new scheme gives a stronger increase of b with increasing N than the old scheme. In a present-climate simulation, the new scheme shows a stronger gradient between remote regions (small b) and polluted/continental regions (large b). The new scheme also offsets the first indirect aerosol forcing (DF) more strongly: DF = À0.65 W

Have Australian rainfall and cloudiness increased due to the remote effects of Asian anthropogenic aerosols?

Peer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/94749/1/jgrd13340.pd

Simulation of the spatial distribution of mineral dust and its direct radiative forcing over Australia

Direct radiative forcing by mineral dust is important as it significantly affects the climate system by scattering and absorbing short-wave and long-wave radiation. The multi-angle imaging spectro radiometer (MISR) and cloud–aerosol lidar with orthogonal polarisation (CALIOP) aerosol data are used to observe mineral dust distribution over Australia. In addition, the weather research and forecasting with chemistry (WRF/Chem) model is used to estimate direct radiative forcing by dust. At the surface, the model domain clear-sky short-wave and long-wave direct radiative forcing by dust averaged for a 6-month period (austral spring and summer) was estimated to be −0.67 W m−2 and 0.13 W m−2, respectively. The long-wave warming effect of dust therefore offsets 19.4% of its short-wave cooling effect. However, over Lake Eyre Basin where coarse particles are more abundant, the long-wave warming effect of dust offsets 60.9% of the short-wave cooling effect. At the top of the atmosphere (TOA), clear-sky short-wave and long-wave direct radiative forcing was estimated to be −0.26 W m−2 and −0.01 W m−2, respectively. This leads to a net negative direct radiative forcing of dust at the TOA, indicating cooling of the atmosphere by an increase in outgoing radiation. Short-wave and long-wave direct radiative forcing by dust is shown to have a diurnal variation due to changes in solar zenith angle and in the intensity of infrared radiation. Atmospheric heating due to absorption of short-wave radiation was simulated, while the interaction of dust with long-wave radiation was associated with atmospheric cooling. The net effect was cooling of the atmosphere near the surface (below 0.2 km), with warming of the atmosphere at higher altitudes

The CSIRO Mk3L climate system model version 1.0 – Part 1: Description and evaluation

The CSIRO Mk3L climate system model is a coupled general circulation model, designed primarily for millennial-scale climate simulations and palaeoclimate research. Mk3L includes components which describe the atmosphere, ocean, sea ice and land surface, and combines computational efficiency with a stable and realistic control climatology. This paper describes the model physics and software, analyses the control climatology, and evaluates the ability of the model to simulate the modern climate. <br><br> Mk3L incorporates a spectral atmospheric general circulation model, a <i>z</i>-coordinate ocean general circulation model, a dynamic-thermodynamic sea ice model and a land surface scheme with static vegetation. The source code is highly portable, and has no dependence upon proprietary software. The model distribution is freely available to the research community. A 1000-yr climate simulation can be completed in around one-and-a-half months on a typical desktop computer, with greater throughput being possible on high-performance computing facilities. <br><br> Mk3L produces realistic simulations of the larger-scale features of the modern climate, although with some biases on the regional scale. The model also produces reasonable representations of the leading modes of internal climate variability in both the tropics and extratropics. The control state of the model exhibits a high degree of stability, with only a weak cooling trend on millennial timescales. Ongoing development work aims to improve the model climatology and transform Mk3L into a comprehensive earth system model

Total aerosol effect: forcing or radiative flux perturbation

Uncertainties in aerosol radiative forcings, especially those associated with clouds, contribute to a large extent to uncertainties in the total anthropogenic forcing. The interaction of aerosols with clouds and radiation introduces feedbacks which can affect the rate of precipitation formation. In former assessments of aerosol radiative forcings, these effects have not been quantified. Also, with global aerosol-climate models simulating interactively aerosols and cloud microphysical properties, a quantification of the aerosol forcings in the traditional way is difficult to define properly. Here we argue that fast feedbacks should be included because they act quickly compared with the time scale of global warming. We show that for different forcing agents (aerosols and greenhouse gases) the radiative forcings as traditionally defined agree rather well with estimates from a method, here referred to as radiative flux perturbations (RFP), that takes these fast feedbacks and interactions into account. Based on our results, we recommend RFP as a valid option to compare different forcing agents, and to compare the effects of particular forcing agents in different models