Explaining trends in tropospheric mercury using global modeling

Multiple observational analyses have identified a decreasing trend over the past decade in surface concentrations of gaseous elemental mercury (GEM), from sites in both the Northern and Southern hemisphere. We use two model-based approaches to identify sets of parameters that could quantitatively explain observed trends in mercury. Using a 12-box model, we quantify which combinations of factors including changes in anthropogenic emissions, oceanic and land evasion, and atmospheric oxidation rates that can explain observed tropospheric mercury decreases. We then use the GEOS-Chem chemical transport model to further examine source attribution at measurement sites where decreasing trends have been observed. We combine these analyses to generate quantitative hypotheses to explain observed trends. We suggest that the tropospheric decline may be best explained by multiple, reinforcing factors.National Science Foundation (U.S.) (Atmospheric Chemistry Program Grant 1053648

PiP: Planning-informed Trajectory Prediction for Autonomous Driving

It is critical to predict the motion of surrounding vehicles for self-driving planning, especially in a socially compliant and flexible way. However, future prediction is challenging due to the interaction and uncertainty in driving behaviors. We propose planning-informed trajectory prediction (PiP) to tackle the prediction problem in the multi-agent setting. Our approach is differentiated from the traditional manner of prediction, which is only based on historical information and decoupled with planning. By informing the prediction process with the planning of ego vehicle, our method achieves the state-of-the-art performance of multi-agent forecasting on highway datasets. Moreover, our approach enables a novel pipeline which couples the prediction and planning, by conditioning PiP on multiple candidate trajectories of the ego vehicle, which is highly beneficial for autonomous driving in interactive scenarios.Comment: European Conference on Computer Vision (ECCV) 2020; Project page at http://haoran-song.github.io/planning-informed-predictio

Interactions between aerosol organic components and liquid water content during haze episodes in Beijing

Aerosol liquid water (ALW) is ubiquitous in ambient aerosol and plays an important role in the formation of both aerosol organics and inorganics. To investigate the interactions between ALW and aerosol organics during haze formation and evolution, ALW was modelled based on long-term measurement of submicron aerosol composition in different seasons in Beijing. ALW contributed by aerosol inorganics (ALW(inorg)) was modelled by ISORROPIA II, and ALW contributed by organics (ALW(org)) was estimated with kappa-Kohler theory, where the real-time hygroscopicity parameter of the organics (kappa(org)) was calculated from the real-time organic oxygen-to-carbon ratio (O/C). Overall particle hygroscopicity (kappa(total)) was computed by weighting component hygroscopicity parameters based on their volume fractions in the mixture. We found that ALW(org), which is often neglected in traditional ALW modelling, contributes a significant fraction (18 %-32 %) to the total ALW in Beijing. The ALW(org) fraction is largest on the cleanest days when both the organic fraction and kappa(org) are relatively high. The large variation in O/C, from 0.2 to 1.3, indicates the wide variety of organic components. This emphasizes the necessity of using real-time kappa(org), instead of fixed kappa(org), to calculate ALW(org) in Beijing. The significant variation in K org (calculated from O/C), together with highly variable organic or inorganic volume fractions, leads to a wide range of kappa(total) (between 0.20 and 0.45), which has a great impact on water uptake. The variation in organic O/C, or derived K org , was found to be influenced by temperature (T), ALW, and aerosol mass concentrations, among which T and ALW both have promoting effects on O/C. During high-ALW haze episodes, although the organic fraction decreases rapidly, O/C and derived K org increase with the increase in ALW, suggesting the formation of more soluble organics via heterogeneous uptake or aqueous processes. A positive feedback loop is thus formed: during high-ALW episodes, increasing kappa(org), together with decreasing particle organic fraction (or increasing particle inorganic fraction), increases kappa(total), and thus further promotes the ability of particles to uptake water.Peer reviewe

Trend analysis from 1970 to 2008 and model evaluation of EDGARv4 global gridded anthropogenic mercury emissions

The Emission Database for Global Atmospheric Research (EDGAR) provides a time-series of man-made emissions of greenhouse gases and short-lived atmospheric pollutants from 1970 to 2008. Mercury is included in EDGARv4.tox1, thereby enriching the spectrum of multi-pollutant sources in the database. With an average annual growth rate of 1.3% since 1970, EDGARv4 estimates that the global mercury emissions reached 1287 tonnes in 2008. Specifically, gaseous elemental mercury (GEM) (Hg[superscript 0]) accounted for 72% of the global total emissions, while gaseous oxidised mercury (GOM) (Hg[superscript 2 +]) and particle bound mercury (PBM) (Hg-P) accounted for only 22% and 6%, respectively. The less reactive form, i.e., Hg[superscript 0], has a long atmospheric residence time and can be transported long distances from the emission sources. The artisanal and small-scale gold production, accounted for approximately half of the global Hg[superscript 0] emissions in 2008 followed by combustion (29%), cement production (12%) and other metal industry (10%). Given the local-scale impacts of mercury, special attention was given to the spatial distribution showing the emission hot-spots on gridded 0.1° × 0.1° resolution maps using detailed proxy data. The comprehensive ex-post analysis of the mitigation of mercury emissions by end-of-pipe abatement measures in the power generation sector and technology changes in the chlor-alkali industry over four decades indicates reductions of 46% and 93%, respectively. Combined, the improved technologies and mitigation measures in these sectors accounted for 401.7 tonnes of avoided mercury emissions in 2008. A comparison shows that EDGARv4 anthropogenic emissions are nearly equivalent to the lower estimates of the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP)'s mercury emissions inventory for 2005 for most sectors. An evaluation of the EDGARv4 global mercury emission inventory, including mercury speciation, was performed using the GEOS-Chem global 3-D mercury model. The model can generally reproduce both spatial variations and long-term trends in total gaseous mercury concentrations and wet deposition fluxes.National Science Foundation (U.S.) (Atmospheric Chemistry Program Grant 1053648

The symbiotic bacteria Alcaligenes faecalis of the entomopathogenic nematodes Oscheius spp. exhibit potential biocontrol of plant- and entomopathogenic fungi

Soil-dwelling entomopathogenic nematodes (EPNs) kill arthropod hosts by injecting their symbiotic bacteria into the host hemolymph and feed on the bacteria and the tissue of the dying host for several generations cycles until the arthropod cadaver is completely depleted. The EPN-bacteria-arthropod cadaver complex represents a rich energy source for the surrounding opportunistic soil fungal biota and other competitors. We hypothesized that EPNs need to protect their food source until depletion and that the EPN symbiotic bacteria produce volatile and non-volatile exudations that deter different soil fungal groups in the soil. We isolated the symbiotic bacteria species (Alcaligenes faecalis) from the EPN Oscheius spp. and ran infectivity bioassays against entomopathogenic fungi (EPF) as well as against plant pathogenic fungi (PPF). We found that both volatile and non-volatile symbiotic bacterial exudations had negative effects on both EPF and PPF. Such deterrent function on functionally different fungal strains suggests a common mode of action of A.faecalis bacterial exudates, which has the potential to influence the structure of soil microbial communities, and could be integrated into pest management programs for increasing crop protection against fungal pathogens

Understanding mercury oxidation and air–snow exchange on the East Antarctic Plateau: a modeling study

Distinct diurnal and seasonal variations of mercury (Hg) have been observed in near-surface air at Concordia Station on the East Antarctic Plateau, but the processes controlling these characteristics are not well understood. Here, we use a box model to interpret the Hg0 (gaseous elemental mercury) measurements in thes year 2013. The model includes atmospheric Hg0 oxidation (by OH, O3, or bromine), surface snow HgII (oxidized mercury) reduction, and air-snow exchange, and is driven by meteorological fields from a regional climate model. The simulations suggest that a photochemically driven mercury diurnal cycle occurs at the air-snow interface in austral summer. The fast oxidation of Hg0 in summer may be provided by a two-step bromine-initiated scheme, which is favored by low temperature and high nitrogen oxides at Concordia. The summertime diurnal variations of Hg0 (peaking during daytime) may be confined within several tens of meters above the snow surface and affected by changing mixed layer depths. Snow re-emission of Hg0 is mainly driven by photoreduction of snow HgII in summer. Intermittent warming events and a hypothesized reduction of HgII occurring in snow in the dark may be important processes controlling the mercury variations in the non-summer period, although their relative importance is uncertain. The Br-initiated oxidation of Hg0 is expected to be slower at Summit Station in Greenland than at Concordia (due to their difference in temperature and levels of nitrogen oxides and ozone), which may contribute to the observed differences in the summertime diurnal variations of Hg0 between these two polar inland stations.National Science Foundation (U.S.) (Grant ACP-1053648

Salt Freeze-Thaw Damage Characteristics of Concrete based on Computed Tomography

Freeze–thaw damage and salt erosion are important factors that influence the durability of concrete. In this study, degradation laws of concrete in salt freeze–thaw environment were discussed from the microscopic perspective based on the 3D reconstruction of computed tomography images. A damage model based on concrete aggregate volume and porosity was constructed. Furthermore, the main causes of concrete degradation in the salt freeze–thaw environment were analyzed. Results reveal that, with the increase in salt freeze–thaw cycles, the damage of concrete intensifies gradually, and the uniaxial compressive strength declines steadily. Concrete damages have two causes, namely, changes in concrete porosity and variations in concrete aggregate volume. Damages caused by aggregate volume changes are divided into frost heaving and peeling. In accordance with the constructed damage model, the porosity of concrete materials changes slightly, whereas concrete aggregate volume varies significantly. Aggregate volume changes are the main causes of intensified concrete damages and decreased compressive strength. Research conclusions provide theoretical references to disclosing microscopic damage mechanism of concrete in the salt freeze–thaw environment

Evaluating EDGARv4.tox2 speciated mercury emissions ex-post scenarios and their impacts on modelled global and regional wet deposition patterns

Speciated mercury gridded emissions inventories together with chemical transport models and concentration measurements are essential when investigating both the effectiveness of mitigation measures and the mercury cycle in the environment. Since different mercury species have contrasting behaviour in the atmosphere, their proportion in anthropogenic emissions could determine the spatial impacts. In this study, the time series from 1970 to 2012 of the EDGARv4.tox2 global mercury emissions inventory are described; the total global mercury emission in 2010 is 1772 tonnes. Global grid-maps with geospatial distribution of mercury emissions at a 0.1° × 0.1° resolution are provided for each year. Compared to the previous tox1 version, tox2 provides updates for more recent years and improved emissions in particular for agricultural waste burning, power generation and artisanal and small-scale gold mining (ASGM) sectors. We have also developed three retrospective emissions scenarios based on different hypotheses related to the proportion of mercury species in the total mercury emissions for each activity sector; improvements in emissions speciation are seen when using information primarily from field measurements. We evaluated them using the GEOS-Chem 3-D mercury model in order to explore the influence of speciation shifts, to reactive mercury forms in particular, on regional wet deposition patterns. The reference scenario S1 (EDGARv4.tox2_S1) uses speciation factors from the Arctic Monitoring and Assessment Programme (AMAP); scenario S2 (“EPA_power”) uses factors from EPA's Information Collection Request (ICR); and scenario S3 (“Asia_filedM”) factors from recent scientific publications. In the reference scenario, the sum of reactive mercury emissions (Hg-P and Hg 2+ ) accounted for 25.3% of the total global emissions; the regions/countries that have shares of reactive mercury emissions higher than 6% in total global reactive mercury are China+ (30.9%), India+ (12.5%) and the United States (9.9%). In 2010, the variations of reactive mercury emissions amongst the different scenarios are in the range of −19.3 t/yr (China+) to 4.4 t/yr (OECD_Europe). However, at the sector level, the variation could be different, e.g., for the iron and steel industry in China reaches 15.4 t/yr. Model evaluation at the global level shows a variation of approximately ±10% in wet deposition for the three emissions scenarios. An evaluation of the impact of mercury speciation within nested grid sensitivity simulations is performed for the United States and modelled wet deposition fluxes are compared with measurements. These studies show that using the S2 and S3 emissions of reactive mercury, can improve wet deposition estimates near sources

Sustained methane emissions from China after 2012 despite declining coal production and rice-cultivated area

China’s anthropogenic methane emissions are the largest of any country in the world. A recent study using atmospheric observations suggested that recent policies aimed at reducing emissions of methane due to coal production in China after 2010 had been largely ineffective. Here, based on a longer observational record and an updated modelling approach, we find a statistically significant positive linear trend (0.36 ± 0.04 ( $\pm1\sigma$ ) Tg CH _4 yr ^−2 ) in China’s methane emissions for 2010–2017. This trend was slowing down at a statistically significant rate of -0.1 ± 0.04 Tg CH _4 yr ^−3 . We find that this decrease in growth rate can in part be attributed to a decline in China’s coal production. However, coal mine methane emissions have not declined as rapidly as production, implying that there may be substantial fugitive emissions from abandoned coal mines that have previously been overlooked. We also find that emissions over rice-growing and aquaculture-farming regions show a positive trend (0.13 ± 0.05 Tg CH _4 yr ^−2 for 2010–2017) despite reports of shrinking rice paddy areas, implying potentially significant emissions from new aquaculture activities, which are thought to be primarily located on converted rice paddies