The Confidence Interval Method for Selecting Valid Instrumental Variables

We propose a new method, the confidence interval (CI) method, to select valid instruments from a larger set of potential instruments for instrumental variable (IV) estimation of the causal effect of an exposure on an outcome. Invalid instruments are such that they fail the exclusion conditions and enter the model as explanatory variables. The CI method is based on the CIs of the per instrument causal effects estimates and selects the largest group with all CIs overlapping with each other as the set of valid instruments. Under a plurality rule, we show that the resulting standard IV, or two-stage least squares (2SLS) estimator has oracle properties. This result is the same as for the hard thresholding with voting (HT) method of Guo et al. (Journal of the Royal Statistical Society : Series B, 2018, 80, 793–815). Unlike the HT method, the number of instruments selected as valid by the CI method is guaranteed to be monotonically decreasing for decreasing values of the tuning parameter. For the CI method, we can therefore use a downward testing procedure based on the Sargan (Econometrica, 1958, 26, 393–415) test for overidentifying restrictions and a main advantage of the CI downward testing method is that it selects the model with the largest number of instruments selected as valid that passes the Sargan test

Is there a causal role for homocysteine concentration in blood pressure?:A Mendelian randomization study

Background: An understanding of whether homocysteine is a cause or a marker of increased blood pressure is relevant because blood homocysteine can be effectively lowered by safe and inexpensive interventions (e.g., vitamin B-6, B-9, and B-12 supplementation). Objective: The aim was to assess the causal influence of homocysteine on systolic and diastolic blood pressure (SBP and DBP, respectively) in adults with the use of Mendelian randomization (MR). Design: Data from the 1982 Pelotas Birth Cohort (Brazil) were used. A total of 4297 subjects were evaluated in 2004–2005 (mean age: 22.8 y). The association of homocysteine concentration with SBP and DBP was assessed by conventional ordinary least-squares (OLS) linear regression and 2-stage least-squares (2SLS) regression (MR analysis). The single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) methylenetetrahydrofolate reductase (MTHFR) C677T (rs1801133) was used as proxy for homocysteine concentration. We also applied MR to data from the International Consortium for Blood Pressure (ICBP) genomewide association studies (>69,000 participants) using rs1801133 and additional homocysteine-associated SNPs as instruments. Results: In OLS regression, a 1-SD unit increase in log homocysteine concentration was associated with an increase of 0.9 (95% CI: 0.4, 1.4) mm Hg in SBP and of 1.0 (95% CI: 0.6, 1.4) mm Hg in DBP. In 2SLS regression, for the same increase in homocysteine, the coefficients were −1.8 mm Hg for SBP (95% CI: −3.9, 0.4 mm Hg; P = 0.01) and 0.1 mm Hg for DBP (95% CI: −1.5, 1.7 mm Hg; P = 0.24). In the MR analysis of ICBP data, homocysteine concentration was not associated with SBP (β = 0.6 mm Hg for each 1-SD unit increase in log homocysteine; 95% CI: −0.8, 1.9 mm Hg) but was positively associated with DBP (β = 1.1 mm Hg; 95% CI: 0.2, 1.9 mm Hg). The association of genetically increased homocysteine with DBP was not consistent across different SNPs. Conclusion: Overall, the present findings do not corroborate the hypothesis that homocysteine has a causal role in blood pressure, especially in SBP

The median and the mode as robust meta-analysis estimators in the presence of small-study effects and outliers

Meta-analyses based on systematic literature reviews are commonly used to obtain a quantitative summary of the available evidence on a given topic. However, the reliability of any meta-analysis is constrained by that of its constituent studies. One major limitation is the possibility of small-study effects, when estimates from smaller and larger studies differ systematically. Small-study effects may result from reporting biases (ie, publication bias), from inadequacies of the included studies that are related to study size, or from reasons unrelated to bias. We propose two estimators based on the median and mode to increase the reliability of findings in a meta-analysis by mitigating the influence of small-study effects. By re-examining data from published meta-analyses and by conducting a simulation study, we show that these estimators offer robustness to a range of plausible bias mechanisms, without making explicit modelling assumptions. They are also robust to outlying studies without explicitly removing such studies from the analysis. When meta-analyses are suspected to be at risk of bias because of small-study effects, we recommend reporting the mean, median and modal pooled estimates.</p

Breastfeeding moderates FTO related adiposity: a birth cohort study with 30 years of follow-up.

This study assessed the association of breastfeeding with body composition at 30 years, among subjects who have been prospectively followed since birth in a southern Brazilian city. We also evaluated whether breastfeeding moderated the association between the rs9939609 variant in the FTO gene and adiposity. At 30 years, total and predominant breastfeeding were positively associated with lean mass index and inversely with visceral fat thickness. Among subjects breastfed for <1 month, all outcomes showed monotonically increasing values with additional copies of the A allele in the FTO genotype (rs9939609). Associations among subjects breastfed for one month or longer tended to be in the same direction but showed lower magnitude and were less consistent; for all outcomes. Interactions had p values ≤ 0.05 for body mass index, fat mass index and waist circumference. Even among young adults, breastfeeding moderates the association between the FTO variant rs9939609 and body composition

COVID-19 and social distancing among children and adolescents in Brazil

OBJECTIVE To estimate the prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 antibodies and the adherence to measures of social distancing in children and adolescents studied in three national surveys conducted in Brazil between May–June 2020. METHODS Three national serological surveys were conducted in 133 sentinel cities located in all 27 Federative Units. Multistage probability sampling was used to select 250 individuals per city. The total sample size in age ranges 0–9 and 10–19 years old are of 4,263 and 8,024 individuals, respectively. Information on children or adolescents was gathered with a data collection app, and a rapid point-of-case test for SARS-CoV-2 was conducted on a finger prick blood sample. RESULTS The adjusted prevalence of antibodies was 2.9% (2.2–3.6) among children 0–9 years, 2.2% (1.8–2.6) among adolescents 10-19 years, and 3.0% (2.7–3.3) among adults 20+years. Prevalence of antibodies was higher among poor children and adolescents compared to those of rich families. Adherence to social distancing measures was seen in 72.4% (71.9–73.8) of families with children, 60.8% (59.6–61.9) for adolescents, and 57.4% (56.9–57.8) for adults. For not leaving the house except for essential matters the proportions were 81.7% (80.5–82.9), 70.6% (69.6–61.9), and 65.1% (64.7–65.5), respectively. Among children and adolescents, social distancing was strongly associated with socioeconomic status, being much higher in the better-off families. CONCLUSIONS The prevalence of antibodies against SARS-CoV-2 showed comparable levels among children, adolescents, and adults. Adherence to social distancing measures was more prevalent in children, followed by adolescents. There were important socioeconomic differences in the adherence to social distancing among children and adolescents

Guidelines for performing Mendelian randomization investigations

This paper provides guidelines for performing Mendelian randomization investigations. It is aimed at practitioners seeking to undertake analyses and write up their findings, and at journal editors and reviewers seeking to assess Mendelian randomization manuscripts. The guidelines are divided into nine sections: motivation and scope, data sources, choice of genetic variants, variant harmonization, primary analysis, supplementary and sensitivity analyses (one section on robust methods and one on other approaches), data presentation, and interpretation. These guidelines will be updated based on feedback from the community and advances in the field. Updates will be made periodically as needed, and at least every 18 months

Guidelines for performing Mendelian randomization investigations: update for summer 2023 [version 3; peer review: 2 approved]

This paper provides guidelines for performing Mendelian randomization investigations. It is aimed at practitioners seeking to undertake analyses and write up their findings, and at journal editors and reviewers seeking to assess Mendelian randomization manuscripts. The guidelines are divided into ten sections: motivation and scope, data sources, choice of genetic variants, variant harmonization, primary analysis, supplementary and sensitivity analyses (one section on robust statistical methods and one on other approaches), extensions and additional analyses, data presentation, and interpretation. These guidelines will be updated based on feedback from the community and advances in the field. Updates will be made periodically as needed, and at least every 24 months

Multi-Ancestry Genome-Wide Association Study Accounting for Gene-Psychosocial Factor Interactions Identifies Novel Loci for Blood Pressure Traits

Psychological and social factors are known to influence blood pressure (BP) and risk of hypertension and associated cardiovascular diseases. To identify novel BP loci, we carried out genome-wide association meta-analyses of systolic, diastolic, pulse, and mean arterial BP, taking into account the interaction effects of genetic variants with three psychosocial factors: depressive symptoms, anxiety symptoms, and social support. Analyses were performed using a two-stage design in a sample of up to 128,894 adults from five ancestry groups. In the combined meta-analyses of stages 1 and 2, we identified 59 loci (p value \u3c 5e−8), including nine novel BP loci. The novel associations were observed mostly with pulse pressure, with fewer observed with mean arterial pressure. Five novel loci were identified in African ancestry, and all but one showed patterns of interaction with at least one psychosocial factor. Functional annotation of the novel loci supports a major role for genes implicated in the immune response (PLCL2), synaptic function and neurotransmission (LIN7A and PFIA2), as well as genes previously implicated in neuropsychiatric or stress-related disorders (FSTL5 and CHODL). These findings underscore the importance of considering psychological and social factors in gene discovery for BP, especially in non-European populations

Multi-ancestry study of blood lipid levels identifies four loci interacting with physical activity.

Many genetic loci affect circulating lipid levels, but it remains unknown whether lifestyle factors, such as physical activity, modify these genetic effects. To identify lipid loci interacting with physical activity, we performed genome-wide analyses of circulating HDL cholesterol, LDL cholesterol, and triglyceride levels in up to 120,979 individuals of European, African, Asian, Hispanic, and Brazilian ancestry, with follow-up of suggestive associations in an additional 131,012 individuals. We find four loci, in/near CLASP1, LHX1, SNTA1, and CNTNAP2, that are associated with circulating lipid levels through interaction with physical activity; higher levels of physical activity enhance the HDL cholesterol-increasing effects of the CLASP1, LHX1, and SNTA1 loci and attenuate the LDL cholesterol-increasing effect of the CNTNAP2 locus. The CLASP1, LHX1, and SNTA1 regions harbor genes linked to muscle function and lipid metabolism. Our results elucidate the role of physical activity interactions in the genetic contribution to blood lipid levels

A genome-wide association study in Hispanics/Latinos identifies novel signals for lung function: the Hispanic Community Health Study/Study of Latinos

Rationale:: Lung function and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) are heritable traits. Genome-wide association studies (GWAS) have identified numerous pulmonary function and COPD loci, primarily in cohorts of European ancestry. Objectives: Perform a GWAS of COPD-phenotypes in Hispanic/Latino populations to identify loci not previously detected in European populations. Methods: :GWAS of lung function and COPD in Hispanic/Latino participants from a population-based cohort. We performed replication studies of novel loci in independent studies. Measurements and Main Results: Among 11,822 Hispanic/Latino participants, we identified eight novel signals; three replicated in independent populations of European Ancestry. A novel locus for forced expiratory volume in one second (FEV1) in ZSWIM7 (rs4791658; p=4.99×10-9) replicated. A rare variant (MAF=0.002) in HAL (rs145174011) was associated with FEV1 to forced vital capacity (FEV1/FVC) (p=9.59×10-9) in a region previously identified for COPD-related phenotypes; it remained significant in conditional analyses but did not replicate. Admixture mapping identified a novel region, with a variant in AGMO (rs41331850), associated with Amerindian ancestry and FEV1, which replicated. A novel locus for FEV1 identified among ever smokers (rs291231; p=1.92×10-8) approached statistical significance for replication in admixed populations of African ancestry and a novel SNP for COPD in PDZD2 (rs7709630; p=1.56×10-8) regionally replicated. Additionally, loci previously identified for lung function in European samples were associated in Hispanic/Latino participants in HCHS/SOL at the genome-wide significance level. Conclusions: We identified novel signals for lung function and COPD in a Hispanic/Latino cohort. Including admixed populations when performing genetic studies may identify variants contributing togenetic etiologies of COPD