Carbon implications of forest restitution in post-socialist Romania

The collapse of socialism in 1989 triggered a phase of institutional restructuring in Central and Eastern Europe. Several countries chose to privatize forests or to return them to pre-socialist owners. Here, we assess the implications of forest restitution on the terrestrial The collapse of socialism in 1989 triggered a phase of institutional restructuring in Central and Eastern Europe. Several countries chose to privatize forests or to return them to pre-socialist owners. Here, we assess the implications of forest restitution on the terrestrial carbon balance. New forest owners have strong incentives to immediately clearcut their forests, resulting in increased terrestrial emissions. On the other hand, logging generally decreased after 1989 and forests are expanding on unused or abandoned farmland, both of which may offset increased logging on restituted forests. We mapped changes in forest cover for the entire country of Romania using Landsat satellite images from 1990 to 2010. We use our satellite estimates, together with historic data on logging rates and changes in forest cover, to parameterize a carbon book-keeping model for estimating the terrestrial carbon flux (above and below ground) as a consequence of land use change and forest harvest. High logging rates during socialism resulted in substantial terrestrial carbon emissions and Romania was a net carbon source until the 1980s. After the collapse of the Soviet Union forest harvest rates decreased dramatically, but since restitution laws were implemented they have increased by 60% (from 15 122 ± 5397 ha y − 1 in 2000 to 23 884 ± 11 510 ha y − 1 in 2010), but still remain lower than prior to 1989. Romania currently remains a terrestrial carbon sink, offsetting 7.6% ± 2.5% of anthropogenic carbon emissions. A further increase in logging could result in net emissions from terrestrial ecosystems during the coming decades. However, forest expansion on degraded land and abandoned farmland offers great potential for carbon sequestration. decreased after 1989 and forests are expanding on unused or abandoned farmland, both of which may offset increased logging on restituted forests. We mapped changes in forest cover for the entire country of Romania using Landsat satellite images from 1990 to 2010. We use our satellite estimates, together with historic data on logging rates and changes in forest cover, to parameterize a carbon book-keeping model for estimating the terrestrial carbon flux (above and below ground) as a consequence of land use change and forest harvest. High logging rates during socialism resulted in substantial terrestrial carbon emissions and Romania was a net carbon source until the 1980s. After the collapse of the Soviet Union forest harvest rates decreased dramatically, but since restitution laws were implemented they have increased by 60% (from 15 122 ± 5397 ha y − 1 in 2000 to 23 884 ± 11 510 ha y − 1 in 2010), but still remain lower than prior to 1989. Romania currently remains a terrestrial carbon sink, offsetting 7.6% ± 2.5% of anthropogenic carbon emissions. A further increase in logging could result in net emissions from terrestrial ecosystems during the coming decades. However, forest expansion on degraded land and abandoned farmland offers great potential for carbon sequestration.Peer Reviewe

Mapping and monitoring carbon stocks with satellite observations: a comparison of methods

Mapping and monitoring carbon stocks in forested regions of the world, particularly the tropics, has attracted a great deal of attention in recent years as deforestation and forest degradation account for up to 30% of anthropogenic carbon emissions, and are now included in climate change negotiations. We review the potential for satellites to measure carbon stocks, specifically aboveground biomass (AGB), and provide an overview of a range of approaches that have been developed and used to map AGB across a diverse set of conditions and geographic areas. We provide a summary of types of remote sensing measurements relevant to mapping AGB, and assess the relative merits and limitations of each. We then provide an overview of traditional techniques of mapping AGB based on ascribing field measurements to vegetation or land cover type classes, and describe the merits and limitations of those relative to recent data mining algorithms used in the context of an approach based on direct utilization of remote sensing measurements, whether optical or lidar reflectance, or radar backscatter. We conclude that while satellite remote sensing has often been discounted as inadequate for the task, attempts to map AGB without satellite imagery are insufficient. Moreover, the direct remote sensing approach provided more coherent maps of AGB relative to traditional approaches. We demonstrate this with a case study focused on continental Africa and discuss the work in the context of reducing uncertainty for carbon monitoring and markets

Sensitivity of L-band vegetation optical depth to carbon stocks in tropical forests: a comparison to higher frequencies and optical indices

Supplementary data to this article can be found online at https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rse.2019.111303.Monitoring vegetation carbon in tropical regions is essential to the global carbon assessment and to evaluate the actions oriented to the reduction of forest degradation. Mainly, satellite optical vegetation indices and LiDAR data have been used to this purpose. These two techniques are limited by cloud cover and are sensitive only to the top of vegetation. In addition, the vegetation attenuation to the soil microwave emission, represented by the vegetation optical depth (VOD), has been applied for biomass estimation using frequencies ranging from 4 to 30¿GHz (C- to K-bands). Atmosphere is transparent to microwaves and their sensitivity to canopy layers depends on the frequency, with lower frequencies having greater penetration depths. In this regard, L-band VOD (1.4¿GHz) is expected to enhance the ability to estimate carbon stocks. This study compares the sensitivity of different VOD products (from L, C, and X-bands) and an optical vegetation index (EVI) to the above-ground carbon density (ACD). It quantifies the contribution of ACD and forest cover proportion to the VOD/EVI signals. The study is conducted in Peru, southern Colombia and Panama, where ACD maps have been derived from airborne LiDAR. Results confirm the enhanced sensitivity of L-band VOD to ACD when compared to higher frequency bands, and show that the sensitivity of all VOD bands decreases in the densest forests. ACD explains 34% and forest cover 30% of L-band VOD variance, and these proportions gradually decrease for EVI, C-, and X-band VOD, respectively. Results are consistent through different categories of altitude and carbon density. This pattern is found in most of the studied regions and in flooded forests. Results also show that C-, X-band VOD and EVI provide complementary information to L-band VOD, especially in flooded forests and in mountains, indicating that synergistic approaches could lead to improved retrievals in these regions. Although the assessment of vegetation carbon in the densest forests requires further research, results from this study support the use of new L-band VOD estimates for mapping the carbon of tropical forests.Peer ReviewedPostprint (author's final draft

Estimating aboveground biomass in tropical forests: Field methods and error analysis for the calibration of remote sensing observations

Mapping and monitoring of forest carbon stocks across large areas in the tropics will necessarily rely on remote sensing approaches, which in turn depend on field estimates of biomass for calibration and validation purposes. Here, we used field plot data collected in a tropical moist forest in the central Amazon to gain a better understanding of the uncertainty associated with plot-level biomass estimates obtained specifically for the calibration of remote sensing measurements. In addition to accounting for sources of error that would be normally expected in conventional biomass estimates (e.g., measurement and allometric errors), we examined two sources of uncertainty that are specific to the calibration process and should be taken into account in most remote sensing studies: the error resulting from spatial disagreement between field and remote sensing measurements (i.e., co-location error), and the error introduced when accounting for temporal differences in data acquisition. We found that the overall uncertainty in the field biomass was typically 25% for both secondary and primary forests, but ranged from 16 to 53%. Co-location and temporal errors accounted for a large fraction of the total variance (<65%) and were identified as important targets for reducing uncertainty in studies relating tropical forest biomass to remotely sensed data. Although measurement and allometric errors were relatively unimportant when considered alone, combined they accounted for roughly 30% of the total variance on average and should not be ignored. Our results suggest that a thorough understanding of the sources of error associated with field-measured plot-level biomass estimates in tropical forests is critical to determine confidence in remote sensing estimates of carbon stocks and fluxes, and to develop strategies for reducing the overall uncertainty of remote sensing approaches. © 2017 by the authors; licensee MDPI, Basel, Switzerland

Comparing the effects of augmented virtual reality treadmill training versus conventional treadmill training in patients with stage II-III Parkinson’s disease: the VIRTREAD-PD randomized controlled trial protocol

BackgroundIntensive treadmill training (TT) has been documented to improve gait parameters and functional independence in Parkinson’s Disease (PD), but the optimal intervention protocol and the criteria for tailoring the intervention to patients’ performances are lacking. TT may be integrated with augmented virtual reality (AVR), however, evidence of the effectiveness of this combined treatment is still limited. Moreover, prognostic biomarkers of rehabilitation, potentially useful to customize the treatment, are currently missing. The primary aim of this study is to compare the effects on gait performances of TT + AVR versus TT alone in II-III stage PD patients with gait disturbance. Secondary aims are to assess the effects on balance, gait parameters and other motor and non-motor symptoms, and patient’s satisfaction and adherence to the treatment. As an exploratory aim, the study attempts to identify biomarkers of neuroplasticity detecting changes in Neurofilament Light Chain concentration T0-T1 and to identify prognostic biomarkers associated to blood-derived Extracellular Vesicles.MethodsSingle-center, randomized controlled single-blind trial comparing TT + AVR vs. TT in II-III stage PD patients with gait disturbances. Assessment will be performed at baseline (T0), end of training (T1), 3 (T2) and 6 months (T3, phone interview) from T1. The primary outcome is difference in gait performance assessed with the Tinetti Performance-Oriented Mobility Assessment gait scale at T1. Secondary outcomes are differences in gait performance at T2, in balance and spatial–temporal gait parameters at T1 and T2, patients’ satisfaction and adherence. Changes in falls, functional mobility, functional autonomy, cognition, mood, and quality of life will be also assessed at different timepoints. The G*Power software was used to estimate a sample size of 20 subjects per group (power 0.95, α &lt; 0.05), raised to 24 per group to compensate for potential drop-outs. Both interventions will be customized and progressive, based on the participant’s performance, according to a predefined protocol.ConclusionThis study will provide data on the possible superiority of AVR-associated TT over conventional TT in improving gait and other motor and non-motor symptoms in persons with PD and gait disturbances. Results of the exploratory analysis could add information in the field of biomarker research in PD rehabilitation

A Combined Transcriptomics and Lipidomics Analysis of Subcutaneous, Epididymal and Mesenteric Adipose Tissue Reveals Marked Functional Differences

Depot-dependent differences in adipose tissue physiology may reflect specialized functions and local interactions between adipocytes and surrounding tissues. We combined time-resolved microarray analyses of mesenteric- (MWAT), subcutaneous- (SWAT) and epididymal adipose tissue (EWAT) during high-fat feeding of male transgenic ApoE3Leiden mice with histology, targeted lipidomics and biochemical analyses of metabolic pathways to identify differentially regulated processes and site-specific functions. EWAT was found to exhibit physiological zonation. De novo lipogenesis in fat proximal to epididymis was stably low, whereas de novo lipogenesis distal to epididymis and at other locations was down-regulated in response to high-fat diet. The contents of linoleic acid and α-linolenic acid in EWAT were increased compared to other depots. Expression of the androgen receptor (Ar) was higher in EWAT than in MWAT and SWAT. We suggest that Ar may mediate depot-dependent differences in de novo lipogenesis rate and propose that accumulation of linoleic acid and α-linolenic acid in EWAT is favored by testosterone-mediated inhibition of de novo lipogenesis and may promote further elongation and desaturation of these polyunsaturated fatty acids during spermatogenesis

Protecting 30% of the planet for nature: costs, benefits and economic implications

A. Waldron, K. Nakamura, J. Sze, T. Vilela, A. Escobedo, P. Negret Torres, R. Button, K. Swinnerton, A. Toledo, P. Madgwick, N. Mukherjee were supported by National Geographic and the Resources Legacy Fund. V. Christensen was supported by NSERC Discovery Grant RGPIN-2019-04901. M. Coll and J. Steenbeek were supported by EU Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under grant agreement No 817578 (TRIATLAS). D. Leclere was supported by TradeHub UKRI CGRF project. R. Heneghan was supported by Spanish Ministry of Science, Innovation and Universities, Acciones de Programacion Conjunta Internacional (PCIN-2017-115). M. di Marco was supported by MIUR Rita Levi Montalcini programme. A. Fernandez-Llamazares was supported by Academy of Finland (grant nr. 31176). S. Fujimori and T. Hawegawa were supported by The Environment Research and Technology Development Fund (2-2002) of the Environmental Restoration and Conservation Agency of Japan and the Sumitomo Foundation. V. Heikinheimo was supported by Kone Foundation, Social Media for Conservation project. K. Scherrer was supported by the European Research Council (ERC) under the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under grant agreement No 682602. U. Rashid Sumaila acknowledges the OceanCanada Partnership, which funded by the Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council of Canada (SSHRC). T. Toivonen was supported by Osk. Huttunen Foundation & Clare Hall college, Cambridge. W. Wu was supported by The Environment Research and Technology Development Fund (2-2002) of the Environmental Restoration and Conservation Agency of Japan. Z. Yuchen was supported by a Ministry of Education of Singapore Research Scholarship Block (RSB) Research Fellowship

Working paper analysing the economic implications of the proposed 30% target for areal protection in the draft post-2020 Global Biodiversity Framewor

58 pages, 5 figures, 3 tables- The World Economic Forum now ranks biodiversity loss as a top-five risk to the global economy, and the draft post-2020 Global Biodiversity Framework proposes an expansion of conservation areas to 30% of the earth’s surface by 2030 (hereafter the “30% target”), using protected areas (PAs) and other effective area-based conservation measures (OECMs). - Two immediate concerns are how much a 30% target might cost and whether it will cause economic losses to the agriculture, forestry and fisheries sectors. - Conservation areas also generate economic benefits (e.g. revenue from nature tourism and ecosystem services), making PAs/Nature an economic sector in their own right. - If some economic sectors benefit but others experience a loss, high-level policy makers need to know the net impact on the wider economy, as well as on individual sectors. [...]A. Waldron, K. Nakamura, J. Sze, T. Vilela, A. Escobedo, P. Negret Torres, R. Button, K. Swinnerton, A. Toledo, P. Madgwick, N. Mukherjee were supported by National Geographic and the Resources Legacy Fund. V. Christensen was supported by NSERC Discovery Grant RGPIN-2019-04901. M. Coll and J. Steenbeek were supported by EU Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under grant agreement No 817578 (TRIATLAS). D. Leclere was supported by TradeHub UKRI CGRF project. R. Heneghan was supported by Spanish Ministry of Science, Innovation and Universities, Acciones de Programacion Conjunta Internacional (PCIN-2017-115). M. di Marco was supported by MIUR Rita Levi Montalcini programme. A. Fernandez-Llamazares was supported by Academy of Finland (grant nr. 311176). S. Fujimori and T. Hawegawa were supported by The Environment Research and Technology Development Fund (2-2002) of the Environmental Restoration and Conservation Agency of Japan and the Sumitomo Foundation. V. Heikinheimo was supported by Kone Foundation, Social Media for Conservation project. K. Scherrer was supported by the European Research Council (ERC) under the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under grant agreement No 682602. U. Rashid Sumaila acknowledges the OceanCanada Partnership, which funded by the Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council of Canada (SSHRC). T. Toivonen was supported by Osk. Huttunen Foundation & Clare Hall college, Cambridge. W. Wu was supported by The Environment Research and Technology Development Fund (2-2002) of the Environmental Restoration and Conservation Agency of Japan. Z. Yuchen was supported by a Ministry of Education of Singapore Research Scholarship Block (RSB) Research FellowshipPeer reviewe

Missing not at random in end of life care studies: multiple imputation and sensitivity analysis on data from the ACTION study

Background: Missing data are common in end-of-life care studies, but there is still relatively little exploration of which is the best method to deal with them, and, in particular, if the missing at random (MAR) assumption is valid or missing not at random (MNAR) mechanisms should be assumed. In this paper we investigated this issue through a sensitivity analysis within the ACTION study, a multicenter cluster randomized controlled trial testing advance care planning in patients with advanced lung or colorectal cancer. Methods: Multiple imputation procedures under MAR and MNAR assumptions were implemented. Possible violation of the MAR assumption was addressed with reference to variables measuring quality of life and symptoms. The MNAR model assumed that patients with worse health were more likely to have missing questionnaires, making a distinction between single missing items, which were assumed to satisfy the MAR assumption, and missing values due to completely missing questionnaire for which a MNAR mechanism was hypothesized. We explored the sensitivity to possible departures from MAR on gender differences between