Assumptions for long-term stochastic population forecasts in 18 European countries: Hypothèses de projections stochastiquesàlong terme des populations de 18 pays européens

The aim of the ‘Uncertain Population of Europe’(UPE) project was to compute long-term stochastic (probabilistic) population forecasts for 18 European countries. We developed a general methodology for constructing predictive distributions for fertility, mortality and migration. The assumptions underlying stochastic population forecasts can be assessed by analysing errors in past forecasts or model-based estimates of forecast errors, or by expert judgement. All three approaches have been used in the project. This article summarizes and discusses the results of the three approaches. It demonstrates how the—sometimes conflicting—results can be synthesized into a consistent set of assumptions about the expected levels and the uncertainty of total fertility rate, life expectancy at birth of men and women, and net migration for 18 European countries

Utilização de biochar para mitigação das emissões de óxido nitroso do solo.

Com o avanço das mudanças climáticas ocasionadas pelo aquecimento global, faz-se necessário a busca por soluções que visem mitigar as emissões de gases de efeito estufa. O presente estudo objetivou avaliar o uso de biochar como prática para mitigar as emissões de óxido nitroso (N2O) gerado pela aplicação de fertilizante nitrogenado no solo. O biochar pode ser uma alternativa com potencial para mitigar as emissões de N2O provenientes do solo e o presente trabalho indica que doses acima de 6 Mg ha-1 trariam efeitos positivos

Monitoring international migration flows in Europe. Towards a statistical data base combining data from different sources

The paper reviews techniques developed in demography, geography and statistics that are useful for bridging the gap between available data on international migration flows and the information required for policy making and research. The basic idea of the paper is as follows: to establish a coherent and consistent data base that contains sufficiently detailed, up-to-date and accurate information, data from several sources should be combined. That raises issues of definition and measurement, and of how to combine data from different origins properly. The issues may be tackled more easily if the statistics that are being compiled are viewed as different outcomes or manifestations of underlying stochastic processes governing migration. The link between the processes and their outcomes is described by models, the parameters of which must be estimated from the available data. That may be done within the context of socio-demographic accounting. The paper discusses the experience of the U.S. Bureau of the Census in combining migration data from several sources. It also summarizes the many efforts in Europe to establish a coherent and consistent data base on international migration. The paper was written at IIASA. It is part of the Migration Estimation Study, which is a collaborative IIASA-University of Groningen project, funded by the Netherlands Organization for Scientific Research (NWO). The project aims at developing techniques to obtain improved estimates of international migration flows by country of origin and country of destination

Basic theory behind parameterizing atmospheric convection

Last fall, a network of the European Cooperation in Science and Technology (COST), called “Basic Concepts for Convection Parameterization in Weather Forecast and Climate Models” (COST Action ES0905; see http://w3.cost.esf.org/index.php?id=205&action_number=ES0905), organized a 10-day training course on atmospheric convection and its parameterization. The aim of the workshop, held on the island of Brac, Croatia, was to help young scientists develop an in-depth understanding of the core theory underpinning convection parameterizations. The speakers also sought to impart an appreciation of the various approximations, compromises, and ansatz necessary to translate theory into operational practice for numerical models

Lateral hypothalamic activity indicates hunger and satiety states in humans

Lateral hypothalamic area (LHA) local field potentials (LFPs) were recorded in a Prader–Willi patient undergoing deep brain stimulation (DBS) for obesity. During hunger, exposure to food-related cues induced an increase in beta/ low-gamma activity. In contrast, recordings during satiety were marked by prominent alpha rhythms. Based on these findings, we have delivered alphafrequency DBS prior to and during food intake. Despite reporting an early sensation of fullness, the patient continued to crave food. This suggests that the pattern of activity in LHA may indicate hunger/satiety states in humans but attest to the complexity of conducting neuromodulation studies in obesity

The modulation of auditory novelty processing by working memory load in school age children and adults: a combined behavioral and event-related potential study

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>We investigated the processing of task-irrelevant and unexpected novel sounds and its modulation by working-memory load in children aged 9-10 and in adults. Environmental sounds (novels) were embedded amongst frequently presented standard sounds in an auditory-visual distraction paradigm. Each sound was followed by a visual target. In two conditions, participants evaluated the position of a visual stimulus (0-back, low load) or compared the position of the current stimulus with the one two trials before (2-back, high load). Processing of novel sounds were measured with reaction times, hit rates and the auditory event-related brain potentials (ERPs) Mismatch Negativity (MMN), P3a, Reorienting Negativity (RON) and visual P3b.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>In both memory load conditions novels impaired task performance in adults whereas they improved performance in children. Auditory ERPs reflect age-related differences in the time-window of the MMN as children showed a positive ERP deflection to novels whereas adults lack an MMN. The attention switch towards the task irrelevant novel (reflected by P3a) was comparable between the age groups. Adults showed more efficient reallocation of attention (reflected by RON) under load condition than children. Finally, the P3b elicited by the visual target stimuli was reduced in both age groups when the preceding sound was a novel.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Our results give new insights in the development of novelty processing as they (1) reveal that task-irrelevant novel sounds can result in contrary effects on the performance in a visual primary task in children and adults, (2) show a positive ERP deflection to novels rather than an MMN in children, and (3) reveal effects of auditory novels on visual target processing.</p