Bayesian joint models with INLA exploring marine mobile predator-prey and competitor species habitat overlap

EPSRC grant Ecowatt 2050 EP/K012851/1 ACKNOWLEDGMENTS We would like to thank the associate editor and the anonymous reviewers for their useful and constructive suggestions which led to a considerable improvement of the manuscript. The authors would also like to thank the following people/organizations for making large datasets available for use in this paper: Mark Lewis (Joint Nature Conservation Committee), Philip Hammond (Scottish Oceans Institute, University of St. Andrews), Susan Lusseau (Marine Scotland Science), Darren Stevens (The Sir Alister Hardy Foundation for Ocean Science, PML), and Yuri Artioli (Plymouth Marine Laboratory). This work was supported by the Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council (EcoWatt250; EPSRC EP/K012851/1).Peer reviewedPublisher PD

Effects of a scientific echo sounder on the behavior of short-finned pilot whales (Globicephala macrorhynchus)

This work was supported by award RC-2154 from the Strategic Environmental Research and Development Program and funding from the Naval Facilities Engineering Command Atlantic and NOAA Fisheries, Southeast Region.Active echo sounding devices are often employed for commercial or scientific purposes in the foraging habitats of marine mammals. We conducted an experiment off Cape Hatteras, North Carolina, USA, to assess whether the behavior of short-finned pilot whales (Globicephala macrorhynchus) changed when exposed to an EK60 scientific echo sounder. We attached digital acoustic recording tags (DTAGs) to nine individuals, five of which were exposed. A hidden Markov model to characterize diving states with and without exposure provided no evidence for a change in foraging behavior. However, generalized estimating equations to model changes in heading variance over the entire tag record under all experimental conditions showed a consistent increase in heading variance during exposure over all values of depth and pitch. This suggests that regardless of behavioral state, the whales changed their heading more frequently when the echo sounder was active. This response could represent increased vigilance in which whales maintained awareness of echo sounder location by increasing their heading variance and provides the first quantitative analysis on reactions of cetaceans to a scientific echo sounder.PostprintPeer reviewe

Dose response severity functions for acoustic disturbance in cetaceans using recurrent event survival analysis

This work was financially supported by the U. S. Office of Naval Research grant N00014‐12‐1‐0204, under the project “Multi‐study Ocean acoustics Human effects Analysis” (MOCHA). . L. Tyack received funding from the MASTS pooling initiative (The Marine Alliance for Science and Technology for Scotland) and their support is gratefully acknowledged. MASTS is funded by the Scottish Funding Council (grant reference HR09011) and contributing institutions. The case study data were provided by the 3S project, which was funded by the U.S. Office of Naval Research, the Norwegian Ministry of Defense, the Netherlands Ministry of Defense, and WWF Norway.Behavioral response studies (BRSs) aim to enhance our understanding of the behavior changes made by animals in response to specific exposure levels of different stimuli, often presented in an increasing dosage. Here, we focus on BRSs that aim to understand behavioral responses of free-ranging whales and dolphins to manmade acoustic signals (although the methods are applicable more generally). One desired outcome of these studies is dose-response functions relevant to different species, signals and contexts. We adapted and applied recurrent event survival analysis (Cox proportional hazard models) to data from the 3S BRS project, where multiple behavioral responses of different severities had been observed per experimental exposure and per individual based upon expert scoring. We included species, signal type, exposure number and behavioral state prior to exposure as potential covariates. The best model included all main effect terms, with the exception of exposure number, as well as two interaction terms. The interactions between signal and behavioral state, and between species and behavioral state highlighted that the sensitivity of animals to different signal types (a 6–7 kHz upsweep sonar signal [MFAS] or a 1–2 kHz upsweep sonar signal [LFAS]) depended on their behavioral state (feeding or nonfeeding), and this differed across species. Of the three species included in this analysis (sperm whale [Physeter macrocephalus], killer whale [Orcinus orca] and long-finned pilot whale [Globicephala melas]), killer whales were consistently the most likely to exhibit behavioral responses to naval sonar exposure. We conclude that recurrent event survival analysis provides an effective framework for fitting dose-response severity functions to data from behavioral response studies. It can provide outputs that can help government and industry to evaluate the potential impacts of anthropogenic sound production in the ocean.Publisher PDFPeer reviewe

The transfer function method reveals how age‐structured populations respond to environmental fluctuations with serious implications for fisheries management

Fluctuations in wild fish populations result from interaction between population dynamics and environmental forcing. Age-structured populations can magnify or dampen particular frequencies of these fluctuations, depending on life cycle and species traits. The transfer function (TF) gives a detailed analytical description of these phenomena. In this study, we derive a generalized form of TF to investigate the fluctuations of fish populations in response to species traits and environmental noise characteristics. We found that for semelparous species, fluctuations in fish stocks log-size are directly proportional to the recruitment elasticity and inversely proportional to the age of maturity, and for iteroparous species, fluctuations in fish stocks log-size are inversely proportional to the adult lifespan. In addition to the already known effect of cohort resonance (increased sensitivity to environmental fluctuations on cohort timescales in the elastic range of recruitment elasticity), we find a stock resonance effect (increased sensitivity to environmental fluctuations on double cohort timescales in the inelastic range of recruitment elasticity). These results were then applied to fisheries management. The relationship between fishing mortality and species-specific variability of fish stocks was formalized. In accordance with this analysis, precautionary levels for different catches were estimate

Arterial Stiffness Assessment in Children with Familial Hypercholesterolemia

Familial hypercholesterolemia (FH) is the genetic disease which characterized by an increase of level total cholesterol and low density lipoproteins since childhood. The aim of the study was to assess arterial stiffness in children with heterozygous FH by measuring the pulse wave velocity (PWV) in the aorta. The study involved 118 children, 60 healthy children in the control group and 58 children with heterozygous FH in the main group. Both groups were divided into 3 age subgroups: 5–7 years old, 8–12 years old and 13–17 years old. The diagnosis of FH was made using British criteria by Simon Broome. The lipid profile was determined for all children, blood pressure was monitored daily with an estimate of the minimum, mean and maximum PWV (PWVmin, mean PWV, PWVmax) in aorta using oscillometric method. Correlation analysis in patients with FH revealed direct correlation between PWVmin, mean PWV and PWVmax with total cholesterol (r = 0.46, r = 0.46 and r = 0.464, respectively, p < 0.001). The study demonstrates an increase in the PWV in the aorta in children with FH compared with healthy peers from 8–12 years of age and a progression of arterial stiffness most significant in the group of 13–17 years

Ecological costs of climate change on marine predator-prey population distributions by 2050

ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS We would like to thank the following people/organizations for making large data sets available for use in this paper: Mark Lewis (Joint Nature Conservation Committee), Philip Hammond (Scottish Oceans Institute), Susan Lusseau (Marine Scotland Science) and the ICES Herring Assessment Working Group (HAWG), Darren Stevens (The Sir Alister Hardy Foundation for Ocean Science, PML), and Yuri Artioli (Plymouth Marine Laboratory). We would also like to thank two anonymous reviewers that improved the clarity of this work.This work was supported by the Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council (EcoWatt2050; EPSRC EP/K012851/1). Work conducted by D. Sadykova was partially supported by a Grant from Science Foundation Ireland (15/IA/2881).Peer reviewedPublisher PD

Ecosystem stability at the landscape scale is primarily associated with climatic history

There is an increasing interest in landscape-scale perspectives of ecosystem functioning to inform policy and conservation decisions. However, we need a better understanding of the stability of ecosystem functioning (e.g. plant productivity) at the landscape scale to inform policy around topics such as global food security. We investigate the role of the ecological and environmental context on landscape-scale stability of plant productivity in agricultural pasture using remotely sensed enhanced vegetation index data. We determine whether four measures of stability (variability, magnitude of extreme anomalies, recovery time and recovery rate) are predicted by (a) species richness of vascular plants, (b) regional land cover heterogeneity and (c) climatic history. Stability of plant productivity was primarily associated with climatic history, particularly a history of extreme events. These effects outweighed any positive effects of species richness in the agricultural landscape. A history of variable and extreme climates both increased and decreased contemporary ecosystem stability, suggesting both cumulative and legacy effects, whereas land cover heterogeneity had no effect on stability. The landscape scale is a relevant spatial scale for the management of an ecosystem's stability. At this scale, we find that past climate is a stronger driver of stability in plant productivity than species richness, differing from results at finer field scales. Management should take an integrated approach by incorporating the environmental context of the landscape, such as its climatic history, and consider multiple components of stability to maintain functioning in landscapes that are particularly vulnerable to environmental change

First direct measurements of behavioural responses by Cuvier's beaked whales to mid-frequency active sonar

Most marine mammal­ strandings coincident with naval sonar exercises have involved Cuvier's beaked whales (Ziphius cavirostris). We recorded animal movement and acoustic data on two tagged Ziphius and obtained the first direct measurements of behavioural responses of this species to mid-frequency active (MFA) sonar signals. Each recording included a 30-min playback (one 1.6-s simulated MFA sonar signal repeated every 25 s); one whale was also incidentally exposed to MFA sonar from distant naval exercises. Whales responded strongly to playbacks at low received levels (RLs; 89–127 dB re 1 µPa): after ceasing normal fluking and echolocation, they swam rapidly, silently away, extending both dive duration and subsequent non-foraging interval. Distant sonar exercises (78–106 dB re 1 µPa) did not elicit such responses, suggesting that context may moderate reactions. The observed responses to playback occurred at RLs well below current regulatory thresholds; equivalent responses to operational sonars could elevate stranding risk and reduce foraging efficiency.Publisher PDFPeer reviewe

Атриовентрикулярная (предсердножелудочковая) блокада у детей

Rhythm and conduction disorders of the heart occupy one of the leading places in the structure of cardiovascular pathology in children. Atrioventricular block is the slowing down or loss of impulses from the atria to the ventricles. The team of authors presents clinical guidelines based on the principles of evidence-based medicine, including all stages of diagnosis and treatment of children with atrioventricular block. The use of guidelines in clinical practice will allow to choose the best strategy for the diagnosis and treatment of atrioventricular block for each individual patient.Нарушения ритма и проводимости сердца занимают одно из ведущих мест в структуре сердечно-сосудистой патологии у детей. Атриовентрикулярная блокада представляет собой замедление или прекращение проведения импульсов со стороны предсердий на желудочки. Коллектив авторов представляет разработанные на основании принципов доказательной медицины клинические рекомендации, включающие все этапы диагностики и лечения детей с атриовентрикулярной блокадой. Использование рекомендаций в клинической практике позволит осуществлять выбор наилучшей стратегии в диагностике и лечении атриовентрикулярной блокады у конкретного пациента