Public Access to Surgical Care. Studies on Timeliness, Capacity, Safety and Affordability.

Background. A once commonly held belief was that surgery is too complicated, too expensive, and too ineffectively addressing a too minor proportion of the burden of disease to deserve priority in a setting of scarce healthcare resources in low- and middle-income countries. Yet, essential surgical care can be as highly cost-effective as other common public health interventions, and surgical services are increasingly considered integral to the health system strengthening necessary for reaching health-related sustainable development goals.It has been estimated that 9 out of 10 people in low and lower-middle income countries cannot access timely, safe, and affordable essential surgical care. However, little is known on the upstream determinants of access and of the downstream effects of insufficient surgical health systems.Aims and methods. The overall purpose of this thesis is to expand knowledge on public access to surgical care along the axes of timeliness, capacity, safety, and affordability. Specifically;I. To validate geographical information system (GIS) methods for calculation of geographical access, comparing patient-reported travel times to those derived by computational methods;II. To quantify the migration of surgical specialists to South Africa from other low- and middle-income countries, and from South Africa to high-income countries, using a register-based, cross-sectional study design;III. To assess the feasibility of task-shifting postoperative wound care and surgical site infections (SSI) surveillance to community health workers, analyzing under which conditions this could be beneficial, using a stochastic state transition model;IV. To estimate the burden of out-of-pocket payments for cesarean sections in the context of community-based health insurance and determine if having it reduces catastrophic health expenditure, in a prospective observational study;V. To expand measurement of catastrophic health expenditure to the postoperative period, comparing incidence at discharge to postoperative day 30, in a prospective observational study;VI. To estimate the economic consequences of neurosurgical disease in low- and middle-income countries, using value of lost output and value of lost economic welfare methods, and;VII. To quantify the relative contribution of timeliness, capacity, safety and affordability to the global lack of access to surgical careResults and conclusions. Current methods utilized to measure timeliness to surgical care were shown to be overly optimistic in at least one context (I). South Africa acts as a regional hub for migration of surgical specialists, representing an important destination for sub-Saharan emigrating surgical specialists, whilst itself acting as an even larger exporter of surgical specialists to high-income countries (II). SSI diagnosis at home via CHWs represents a potential way to reduce SSI burden, both in terms of morbidity and undue financial hardship (III). Indeed, even with robust health insurance, cesarean section patients are at high risk of catastrophic health expenditure, and often need to borrow money or sell assets in order to afford care (IV). When the postoperative follow-up after discharge is accounted for, the incidence of financial catastrophe is even larger (V). The previously unaccounted burden of neurosurgical disease will lead to profound global macroeconomic losses in the coming decades (VI). Insufficient access to surgical care is highly multidimensional, and the majority of the billions of people who lack access to surgical care do so due to a combination of two or more factors (VII). Thus, any attempt to mitigate this ongoing public health crisis will need to be as multifactorial as the problem it seeks to solve

Mortality from gastrointestinal congenital anomalies at 264 hospitals in 74 low-income, middle-income, and high-income countries: a multicentre, international, prospective cohort study

Summary Background Congenital anomalies are the fifth leading cause of mortality in children younger than 5 years globally. Many gastrointestinal congenital anomalies are fatal without timely access to neonatal surgical care, but few studies have been done on these conditions in low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs). We compared outcomes of the seven most common gastrointestinal congenital anomalies in low-income, middle-income, and high-income countries globally, and identified factors associated with mortality. Methods We did a multicentre, international prospective cohort study of patients younger than 16 years, presenting to hospital for the first time with oesophageal atresia, congenital diaphragmatic hernia, intestinal atresia, gastroschisis, exomphalos, anorectal malformation, and Hirschsprung’s disease. Recruitment was of consecutive patients for a minimum of 1 month between October, 2018, and April, 2019. We collected data on patient demographics, clinical status, interventions, and outcomes using the REDCap platform. Patients were followed up for 30 days after primary intervention, or 30 days after admission if they did not receive an intervention. The primary outcome was all-cause, in-hospital mortality for all conditions combined and each condition individually, stratified by country income status. We did a complete case analysis. Findings We included 3849 patients with 3975 study conditions (560 with oesophageal atresia, 448 with congenital diaphragmatic hernia, 681 with intestinal atresia, 453 with gastroschisis, 325 with exomphalos, 991 with anorectal malformation, and 517 with Hirschsprung’s disease) from 264 hospitals (89 in high-income countries, 166 in middleincome countries, and nine in low-income countries) in 74 countries. Of the 3849 patients, 2231 (58·0%) were male. Median gestational age at birth was 38 weeks (IQR 36–39) and median bodyweight at presentation was 2·8 kg (2·3–3·3). Mortality among all patients was 37 (39·8%) of 93 in low-income countries, 583 (20·4%) of 2860 in middle-income countries, and 50 (5·6%) of 896 in high-income countries (p<0·0001 between all country income groups). Gastroschisis had the greatest difference in mortality between country income strata (nine [90·0%] of ten in lowincome countries, 97 [31·9%] of 304 in middle-income countries, and two [1·4%] of 139 in high-income countries; p≤0·0001 between all country income groups). Factors significantly associated with higher mortality for all patients combined included country income status (low-income vs high-income countries, risk ratio 2·78 [95% CI 1·88–4·11], p<0·0001; middle-income vs high-income countries, 2·11 [1·59–2·79], p<0·0001), sepsis at presentation (1·20 [1·04–1·40], p=0·016), higher American Society of Anesthesiologists (ASA) score at primary intervention (ASA 4–5 vs ASA 1–2, 1·82 [1·40–2·35], p<0·0001; ASA 3 vs ASA 1–2, 1·58, [1·30–1·92], p<0·0001]), surgical safety checklist not used (1·39 [1·02–1·90], p=0·035), and ventilation or parenteral nutrition unavailable when needed (ventilation 1·96, [1·41–2·71], p=0·0001; parenteral nutrition 1·35, [1·05–1·74], p=0·018). Administration of parenteral nutrition (0·61, [0·47–0·79], p=0·0002) and use of a peripherally inserted central catheter (0·65 [0·50–0·86], p=0·0024) or percutaneous central line (0·69 [0·48–1·00], p=0·049) were associated with lower mortality. Interpretation Unacceptable differences in mortality exist for gastrointestinal congenital anomalies between lowincome, middle-income, and high-income countries. Improving access to quality neonatal surgical care in LMICs will be vital to achieve Sustainable Development Goal 3.2 of ending preventable deaths in neonates and children younger than 5 years by 2030

Hyponatraemia despite isotonic maintenance fluid therapy : A time series intervention study

Objective: To examine the prevalence of dysnatraemias among children admitted for paediatric surgery before and after a change from hypotonic to isotonic intravenous maintenance fluid therapy. Design: Retrospective consecutive time series intervention study. Setting: Paediatric surgery ward at the Children's Hospital in Lund, during a 7-year period, 2010-2017. Patients: All children with a blood sodium concentration measurement during the study period were included. Hypotonic maintenance fluid (40 mmol/L NaCl and 20 mmol/L KCl) was used during the first 3 years of the study (646 patients), and isotonic solution (140 mmol/L NaCl and 20 mmol/L KCl) was used during the following period (807 patients). Main outcome measures: Primary outcomes were sodium concentration and occurrence of hyponatraemia (145 mmol/L). Results: Overall, the change from hypotonic to isotonic intravenous maintenance fluid therapy was associated with a decreased prevalence of hyponatraemia from 29% to 22% (adjusted OR 0.65 (0.51-0.82)) without a significantly increased odds for hypernatraemia (from 3.4% to 4.3%, adjusted OR 1.2 (0.71-2.1)). Hyponatraemia <130 mmol/L decreased from 6.2% to 2.6%, and hyponatraemia <125 mmol/L decreased from 2.0% to 0.5%. Conclusions: Routine use of intravenous isotonic maintenance fluids was associated with lower prevalence of hyponatraemia, although hyponatraemia still occurred in over 20% of patients. We propose that the composition and the volume of administered fluid need to be addressed

South Africa and the Surgical Diaspora-A Hub for Surgical Migration and Training

BACKGROUND: The shortage of trained surgeons, anesthesiologists, and obstetricians is a major contributor to the unmet need for surgical care in low- and middle-income countries, and the shortage is aggravated by migration to higher-income countries.METHODS: We performed a cross-sectional observational study, combining individual-level data of 43,621 physicians from the Health Professions Council of South Africa with data from the registers of 14 high-income countries, and international statistics on surgical workforce, in order to quantify migration to and from South Africa in both absolute and relative terms.RESULTS: Of 6670 surgeons, anesthesiologists, and obstetricians in South Africa, a total of 713 (11%) were foreign medical graduates, and 396 (6%) were from a low- or middle-income country. South Africa was an important destination primarily for physicians originating from low-income countries; 2% of all surgeons, anesthesiologists, and obstetricians from low- and middle-income countries were registered in South Africa, and 6% in the other 14 recipient countries. A total of 1295 (16%) South African surgeons, anesthesiologists, and obstetricians worked in any of the 14 studied high-income countries.CONCLUSION: South Africa is an important regional hub for surgical migration and training. A notable proportion of surgical specialists in South Africa were medical graduates from other low- or middle-income countries, whereas migration out of South Africa to high-income countries was even larger

The impact of physician migration on mortality in low and middle-income countries : An economic modelling study

Background The WHO estimates a global shortage of 2.8 million physicians, with severe deficiencies especially in low and middle-income countries (LMIC). The unequitable distribution of physicians worldwide is further exacerbated by the migration of physicians from LMICs to high-income countries (HIC). This large-scale migration has numerous economic consequences which include increased mortality associated with inadequate physician supply in LMICs. Methods We estimate the economic cost for LMICs due to excess mortality associated with physician migration. To do so, we use the concept of a value of statistical life and marginal mortality benefit provided by physicians. Uncertainty of our estimates is evaluated with Monte Carlo analysis. Results We estimate that LMICs lose US$15.86 billion (95$3.4 to $38.2) annually due to physician migration to HICs. The greatest total costs are incurred by India, Nigeria, Pakistan and South Africa. When these costs are considered as a per cent of gross national income, the cost is greatest in the WHO African region and in low-income countries. Conclusion The movement of physicians from lower to higher income settings has substantial economic consequences. These are not simply the result of the movement of human capital, but also due to excess mortality associated with loss of physicians. Valuing these costs can inform international and domestic policy discussions that are meant to address this issue

The economic consequences of neurosurgical disease in low- And middle-income countries

OBJECTIVE The objective of this study was to estimate the economic consequences of neurosurgical disease in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). METHODS The authors estimated gross domestic product (GDP) losses and the broader welfare losses attributable to 5 neurosurgical disease categories in LMICs using two distinct economic models. The value of lost output (VLO) model projects annual GDP losses due to neurosurgical disease during 2015–2030, and is based on the WHO’s “Projecting the Economic Cost of Ill-health” tool. The value of lost economic welfare (VLW) model estimates total welfare losses, which is based on the value of a statistical life and includes nonmarket losses such as the inherent value placed on good health, resulting from neurosurgical disease in 2015 alone. RESULTS The VLO model estimates the selected neurosurgical diseases will result in $4.4 trillion (2013 US dollars, purchasing power parity) in GDP losses during 2015–2030 in the 90 included LMICs. Economic losses are projected to disproportionately affect low- and lower-middle-income countries, risking up to a 0.6$3 trillion (2013 US dollars, purchasing power parity) in economic welfare losses in 2015. Regardless of the model used, the majority of the losses can be attributed to stroke and traumatic brain injury. CONCLUSIONS The economic impact of neurosurgical diseases in LMICs is significant. The magnitude of economic losses due to neurosurgical diseases in LMICs provides further motivation beyond already compelling humanitarian reasons for action

The true costs of cesarean delivery for patients in rural Rwanda : Accounting for post-discharge expenses in estimated health expenditures

Introduction: While it is recognized that there are costs associated with postoperative patient follow-up, risk assessments of catastrophic health expenditures (CHEs) due to surgery in sub-Saharan Africa rarely include expenses after discharge. We describe patient-level costs for cesarean section (c-section) and follow-up care up to postoperative day (POD) 30 and evaluate the contribution of follow-up to CHEs in rural Rwanda. Methods: We interviewed women who delivered via c-section at Kirehe District Hospital between September 2019 and February 2020. Expenditure details were captured on an adapted surgical indicator financial survey tool and extracted from the hospital billing system. CHE was defined as health expenditure of ≥ 10% of annual household expenditure. We report the cost of c-section up to 30 days after discharge, the rate of CHE among c-section patients stratified by in-hospital costs and post-discharge follow-up costs, and the main contributors to c-section follow-up costs. We performed a multivariate logistic regression using a backward stepwise process to determine independent predictors of CHE at POD30 at α ≤ 0.05. Results: Of the 479 participants in this study, 90% were classified as impoverished before surgery and an additional 6.4% were impoverished by the c-section. The median out-of-pocket costs up to POD30 was US$122.16 (IQR:$102.94, $148.11); 63$77.50; IQR: $67.70,$95.60). To afford c-section care, 64.4% borrowed money and 18.4% sold possessions. The CHE rate was 27% when only considering direct and indirect costs up to the time of discharge and 77% when including the reported expenses up to POD30. Transportation and lost household wages were the largest contributors to post-discharge costs. Further, CHE at POD30 was independently predicted by membership in community-based health insurance (aOR = 3.40, 95% CI: 1.21,9.60), being a farmer (aOR = 2.25, 95% CI:1.00,3.03), primary school education (aOR = 2.35, 95% CI:1.91,4.66), and small household sizes had 0.22 lower odds of experiencing CHE compared to large households (aOR = 0.78, 95% CI:0.66,0.91). Conclusion: Costs associated with surgical follow-up are often neglected in financial risk calculations but contribute significantly to the risk of CHE in rural Rwanda. Insurance coverage for direct medical costs is insufficient to protect against CHE. Innovative follow-up solutions to reduce costs of patient transport and compensate for household lost wages need to be considered

Validating the Global Surgery Geographical Accessibility Indicator : Differences in Modeled Versus Patient-Reported Travel Times

Background: Since long travel times to reach health facilities are associated with worse outcomes, geographic accessibility is one of the six core global surgery indicators; this corresponds to the second of the “Three Delays Framework,” namely “delay in reaching a health facility.” Most attempts to estimate this indicator have been based on geographical information systems (GIS) algorithms. The aim of our study was to compare GIS derived estimates to self-reported travel times for patients traveling to a district hospital in rural Rwanda for emergency obstetric care. Methods: Our study includes 664 women who traveled to undergo a Cesarean delivery in Kirehe, Rwanda. We compared self-reported travel time from home to the hospital (excluding waiting time) with GIS estimated travel times, which were computed using the World Health Organization tool AccessMod, using linear regression. Results: The majority of patients used multiple modes of transportation (walking = 48.5%, public transport = 74.2%, private transport = 2.9%, and ambulance 70.6%). Self-reported times were longer than GIS estimates by a factor of 1.49 (95% CI 1.40–1.57). Concordance was higher when the GIS model took into account that all patients in Rwanda are referred via their health center (β = 1.12; 95% CI 1.05–1.18). Conclusions: To our knowledge, in this largest to date GIS validation study for geographical access to healthcare in low- and middle-income countries, a standard GIS model was found to significantly underestimate real travel time, which likely is in part because it does not model the actual route patients are travelling. Therefore, previous studies of 2-h access to surgery will need to be interpreted with caution, and future studies should take local travelling conditions into account