Bank lending, macroeconomic conditions and financial uncertainty: Evidence from Malaysia

AbstractIn this paper, we examine the interrelations between bank lending, macroeconomic conditions and financial uncertainty for an emerging economy, Malaysia. Adopting time series techniques of cointegration, causality and vector autoregressions (VARs), we arrive at the following main results. We note long run positive relations between real output and both real bank credits and real stock prices. However, with slow adjustment of real output in responses to credit expansion or stock price increase and weak exogeneity of the latter two variables, both credits and stock prices can be persistently higher than their fundamental values. The phenomenon can be detrimental since it heightens market uncertainty. Our results suggest that heightened market uncertainty is negatively related to output in the long run and, on the basis of dynamics analysis, it is likely to depress real output, real credit and real stock prices. At the same time, we note significant dynamic impacts of interest rate shocks on other variables. Taken together, these results have important implications for macroeconomic performance and stability for the case of Malaysia

Shariah Compliance Status and Value of Analysts’ Recommendation Revisions: Evidence from Malaysia

This study examines the effect of 1096 analyst recommendation revisions on prices of Shariah-compliant and Shariah non-compliant listed securities in Bursa Malaysia over the period 2005-2016. The study finds that while stocks added-to-buy had positive abnormal returns, the stocks added-to-sell and remove-from-buy had negative abnormal returns in short- and long-term horizons. This finding shows that analysts’ recommendation revisions carry valuable information. Secondly, the study examined the effect of analysts’ recommendation revisions issued contemporaneously with earnings announcements and without earnings announcements on price reactions over various time horizons. The results show that earnings announcements can trigger analysts’ recommendation revisions because the investors react strongly to analysts’ recommendation revisions issued contemporaneously with earnings announcements. We find that performance differences of Shariah-compliant and Shariah non-compliant stocks in response to analysts’ recommendation revisions are often negligible. Overall, this study provides empirical evidence that analysts’ recommendation revisions for Shariah-compliant companies often do not own any additional investment value than those for Shariah non-compliant stocks

Do cost efficiency affects liquidity risk in banking? evidence from selected OIC countries

Cost efficiency plays a significant role in bank risk taking behaviour. This paper examines the effect of cost efficiency on the liquidity risk of Islamic banks and conventional banks in 16 OIC countries from 1999 to 2013. The findings suggest that cost efficiency has a positive effect on liquidity risk. Other significant factors of liquidity risk include capital, bank specialization, credit risk, profitability, size, GDP and inflation whereas market concentration is not significant contributor to banking liquidity risk. There is weak evidence to support the notion that Islamic banks have higher level of liquidity risk than conventional banks. The findings imply the need to provide liquidity, probably through a well-functioning money market to lower liquidity risk in banking

Bank lending, macroeconomic conditions and financial uncertainty: Evidence from Malaysia

Abstract In this paper, we examine the interrelations between bank lending, macroeconomic conditions and financial uncertainty for an emerging economy, Malaysia. Adopting time series techniques of cointegration, causality and vector autoregressions (VARs), we arrive at the following main results. We note long run positive relations between real output and both real bank credits and real stock prices. However, with slow adjustment of real output in responses to credit expansion or stock price increase and weak exogeneity of the latter two variables, both credits and stock prices can be persistently higher than their fundamental values. The phenomenon can be detrimental since it heightens market uncertainty. Our results suggest that heightened market uncertainty is negatively related to output in the long run and, on the basis of dynamics analysis, it is likely to depress real output, real credit and real stock prices. At the same time, we note significant dynamic impacts of interest rate shocks on other variables. Taken together, these results have important implications for macroeconomic performance and stability for the case of Malaysia

Essays in finance

This thesis which compromise of three essays focuses on the theme of valuation, value premium anomaly, financing behaviour and emerging markets. The first essay studies the value growth puzzle in the context of conflict of interest between taxable and institutional investors. We model this conflict in a rational expectations framework and demonstrate how the differences in firm's characteristics (in terms of value versus growth) and the risk profile of the investors can explain the shape of CAPM's frontier in the overall economy without involving the beta parameter. We also explicate that the changes in taxable and non-taxable investors profile in a dynamic environment rationalize the value growth premium as illustrated by Malkiel (2003). Finally, our approach shed light on the issues raised by Shiller (1979,1981) and LeRoy and Porter (1981) that stock [bond] prices are too volatile to be rationalized by the discounted value of their expected dividends [coupon payments]. The second essay studies value anomaly in the context of four major emerging economies (i.e. Brazil, Turkey, China and India denoted by the acronym BTIC) with vast economic potential and Malaysia, a small emerging economy with top heavy, closely held, state-owned institutional setting. We attribute the anomaly to the investment pattern of glamour firms. Our empirical analysis illustrates that these firms have a tendency to hoard cash, delaying the undertaking of their growth options, especially in poor economic environments. This mitigates their business risk, but lowers their market valuation, driving down their returns. Our hypothesis also reconciles the diverging views stemming from both the neoclassical and behavioural perspectives. This third essay examines the target capital structure of Malaysian firms and their adjustment process in the pre- and post- Asian financial crisis. We utilize an unbalanced panel data set comprising of 184 firms and employ the Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) to study the relationship between a firm's characteristics and its capital structure targeting behaviour in the context of political patronage. Our results support the amalgamation of the well-known Pecking Order and Static Trade-off theories. It also illustrates that the financial crisis had a significant impact on the financial policy of Malaysian firms

Dispelling the myth of a value premium: contrary evidence of Malaysian crony capitalism

This paper contradicts the existence of a universal value anomaly by studying Malaysia, a country with a unique institutional setting. We investigate this counter-example to attribute the anomaly to: 1) the leverage effect of value firms; 2) the investment pattern of growth firms; 3) the economic environment. We find that the value premium cannot be ascribed solely to risk as it is time varying and dependent on the attributes of the companies. Our results illustrate that small cap value firms perform relatively well during favourable economic conditions. In contrast, large cap growth firms perform better than their counterparts (i.e., large cap value firms) in economic upturns as they are preferentially awarded projects to revive the nation's growth

Estimating Protection in Services Sector: A PPML Analysis

The paper provides the tariff equivalent (AVEs) of the trade regulations in services from the gravity equation estimated at the sectoral level and access protection by comparing the actual trade values against a benchmark (free trader). The AVEs are calculated using the bilateral trade flows in 19 services sectors for 121 countries from the latest version of the Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) database for 2014. We conclude that protection is heterogeneous across the sectors and is indirectly linked with the level of development. The countries with the least protected services are developed countries. On average, the most restrictive sector is the Gas sector with average AVE of 440 percent while the most open sector is Air transport with average AVE of 38 percent. Taking the average of AVEs in all sectors, Luxemburg, Singapore, Belgium, and Ireland are the most open economies while Bangladesh, Zimbabwe, Pakistan, and Tajikistan are more restrictive. As part of services is implicit in merchandise trade, Services value-added accounts for more than 60 percent of global GDP in 2020; liberalization can have spillover effects and welfare gains. Protection is primarily high in developing (emerging) countries; liberalization of the service sector is expected to increase their competitiveness and global trade share. Further, it can decrease the widening inequality amid the pandemic

Estimating Protection in Services Sector: A PPML Analysis

The paper provides the tariff equivalent (AVEs) of the trade regulations in services from the gravity equation estimated at the sectoral level and access protection by comparing the actual trade values against a benchmark (free trader). The AVEs are calculated using the bilateral trade flows in 19 services sectors for 121 countries from the latest version of the Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) database for 2014. We conclude that protection is heterogeneous across the sectors and is indirectly linked with the level of development. The countries with the least protected services are developed countries. On average, the most restrictive sector is the Gas sector with average AVE of 440 percent while the most open sector is Air transport with average AVE of 38 percent. Taking the average of AVEs in all sectors, Luxemburg, Singapore, Belgium, and Ireland are the most open economies while Bangladesh, Zimbabwe, Pakistan, and Tajikistan are more restrictive. As part of services is implicit in merchandise trade, Services value-added accounts for more than 60 percent of global GDP in 2020; liberalization can have spillover effects and welfare gains. Protection is primarily high in developing (emerging) countries; liberalization of the service sector is expected to increase their competitiveness and global trade share. Further, it can decrease the widening inequality amid the pandemic

Essays in finance

This thesis which compromise of three essays focuses on the theme of valuation, value premium anomaly, financing behaviour and emerging markets. The first essay studies the value growth puzzle in the context of conflict of interest between taxable and institutional investors. We model this conflict in a rational expectations framework and demonstrate how the differences in firm's characteristics (in terms of value versus growth) and the risk profile of the investors can explain the shape of CAPM's frontier in the overall economy without involving the beta parameter. We also explicate that the changes in taxable and non-taxable investors profile in a dynamic environment rationalize the value growth premium as illustrated by Malkiel (2003). Finally, our approach shed light on the issues raised by Shiller (1979,1981) and LeRoy and Porter (1981) that stock [bond] prices are too volatile to be rationalized by the discounted value of their expected dividends [coupon payments]. The second essay studies value anomaly in the context of four major emerging economies (i.e. Brazil, Turkey, China and India denoted by the acronym BTIC) with vast economic potential and Malaysia, a small emerging economy with top heavy, closely held, state-owned institutional setting. We attribute the anomaly to the investment pattern of glamour firms. Our empirical analysis illustrates that these firms have a tendency to hoard cash, delaying the undertaking of their growth options, especially in poor economic environments. This mitigates their business risk, but lowers their market valuation, driving down their returns. Our hypothesis also reconciles the diverging views stemming from both the neoclassical and behavioural perspectives. This third essay examines the target capital structure of Malaysian firms and their adjustment process in the pre- and post- Asian financial crisis. We utilize an unbalanced panel data set comprising of 184 firms and employ the Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) to study the relationship between a firm's characteristics and its capital structure targeting behaviour in the context of political patronage. Our results support the amalgamation of the well-known Pecking Order and Static Trade-off theories. It also illustrates that the financial crisis had a significant impact on the financial policy of Malaysian firms.EThOS - Electronic Theses Online ServiceGBUnited Kingdo

Bibliometric Review on Sustainable Finance

Unlike conventional finance, sustainable finance seeks to integrate social, environmental, and climate change considerations into financial institutions’ business strategies. The financial system’s ability to positively respond to sustainability transition demands is contingent upon a directional transformation that involves regulatory, political, structural, theoretical, and relational shifts. Accordingly, this paper performs a quali-quantitative analysis that combines both a bibliometric method with a content analysis process to investigate the trend of sustainable finance literature in the Scopus database and provide directions for potential future research. Our bibliometric performance analysis of 723 publications reveals that the UK, China, the US, Switzerland, and Japan are the major centers of research excellence in sustainable finance. They are the most productive countries and hold the most relevant institutions. Moreover, the prevalence of transdisciplinary journals over mainstream finance and economics sources is obvious. Our network map analysis, on the other hand, shows the substantial relevancy of sustainable/green banks’ involvement in sustainable development. Nonetheless, its relatively low density underlines the existence of relevant research gaps. Therefore, we undertake a content analysis of that particular topic’s literature to derive its conceptual structure and truly understand banks’ important role in sustainability transition. Key research themes in this respect include sustainability performance and banks’ profitability associations; sustainable banks’ risk profile; determinants of banks’ willingness to introduce sustainability criteria into their business strategy; depositors’/customers’ responsiveness to banks’ sustainability performance; and relevant macroprudential regulations, monetary policies, and supervisory guidelines to sustainability transition