Combining statistical techniques to predict postsurgical risk of 1-year mortality for patients with colon cancer

Introduction: Colorectal cancer is one of the most frequently diagnosed malignancies and a common cause of cancer-related mortality. The aim of this study was to develop and validate a clinical predictive model for 1-year mortality among patients with colon cancer who survive for at least 30 days after surgery. Methods: Patients diagnosed with colon cancer who had surgery for the first time and who survived 30 days after the surgery were selected prospectively. The outcome was mortality within 1 year. Random forest, genetic algorithms and classification and regression trees were combined in order to identify the variables and partition points that optimally classify patients by risk of mortality. The resulting decision tree was categorized into four risk categories. Split-sample and bootstrap validation were performed. ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT02488161. Results: A total of 1945 patients were enrolled in the study. The variables identified as the main predictors of 1-year mortality were presence of residual tumor, American Society of Anesthesiologists Physical Status Classification System risk score, pathologic tumor staging, Charlson Comorbidity Index, intraoperative complications, adjuvant chemotherapy and recurrence of tumor. The model was internally validated; area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) was 0.896 in the derivation sample and 0.835 in the validation sample. Risk categorization leads to AUC values of 0.875 and 0.832 in the derivation and validation samples, respectively. Optimal cut-off point of estimated risk had a sensitivity of 0.889 and a specificity of 0.758. Conclusion: The decision tree was a simple, interpretable, valid and accurate prediction rule of 1-year mortality among colon cancer patients who survived for at least 30 days after surgery.We are grateful for the support of the 22 participating hospitals, as well as the clinicians and staff members of the various services, research, quality units and medical records sections of these hospitals. We also gratefully acknowledge the patients who participated in the study. We would like to thank Editage (www.editage.com) for English language editing. We also wish to thank the anonymous referees for providing comments, which led to substantial improvement of the article. Financial support for this study was provided, in part, by grants from the Instituto de Salud Carlos III (PS09/00314, PS09/00910, PS09/00746, PS09/00805, PI09/90460, PI09/90490, PI09/90453, PI09/90441, PI09/90397 and the thematic network REDISSEC - Red de Investigacion en Servicios de Salud en Enfermedades Cronicas), co-funded by European Regional Development Fund/European Social Fund (ERDF/ESF "Investing in your future"); the Research Committee of the Hospital Galdakao; the Department of Health and the Department of Education, Language Policy and Culture from the Basque Government (2010111098, IT620-13 and BERC 2014-2017 program); the Spanish Ministry of Economy and Competitiveness MINECO and FEDER (MTM2013-40941-P, MTM2016-74931-P and BCAM Severo Ochoa excellence accreditation SEV-2013-0323). The funding agreement ensured the authors' independence in designing the study, interpreting the data, writing and publishing the report

Burden of disease due to cancer in Spain

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Burden of disease is a joint measure of mortality and morbidity which makes it easier to compare health problems in which these two components enjoy different degrees of relative importance. The objective of this study is ascertaining the burden of disease due to cancer in Spain via the calculation of disability-adjusted life years (DALYs).</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>DALYs are the sum of years of life lost due to premature mortality and years lost due to disability. World Health Organization methodology and the following sources of data were used: the Mortality Register and Princeton Model Life Table for Years of life lost due to premature mortality and population, incidence estimates (Spanish tumour registries and fitting of generalized linear mixed models), duration (from data of survival in Spain from the EUROCARE-3 study and fitting of Weibull distribution function) and disability (weights published in the literature) for Years lost due to disability.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>There were 828,997 DALYs due to cancer (20.5 DALYs/1,000 population), 61% in men. Of the total, 51% corresponded to lung, colorectal, breast, stomach and prostate cancers. Mortality (84% of DALYs) predominated over disability. Subjects aged under 20 years accounted for 1.6% and those aged over 70 years accounted for 30.1% of DALYs.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Lung, colorectal and breast cancers are responsible for the highest number of DALYs in Spain. Even if the burden of disease due to cancer is predominantly caused by mortality, some cancers have a significant weight of disability. Information on 2000 burden of disease due to cancer can be useful to assess how it has evolved over time and the impact of medical advances on it in terms of mortality and disability.</p

Anxiety, depression, health-related quality of life, and mortality among colorectal patients: 5-year follow-up

Purpose Health-related quality of life (HRQoL) measurement represents an important outcome in cancer patients. We describe the evolution of HRQoL over a 5-year period in colorectal cancer patients, identifying predictors of change and how they relate to mortality. Methods Prospective observational cohort study including colorectal cancer (CRC) patients having undergone surgery in nineteen public hospitals who were monitored from their diagnosis, intervention and at 1-, 2-, 3-, and 5-year periods thereafter by gathering HRQoL data using the EuroQol-5D-5L (EQ-5D-5L), European Organization for Research and Treatment of Cancer's Quality of Life Questionnaire-Core 30 (EORTC-QLQ-C30), and Hospital Anxiety and Depression Scale (HADS) questionnaires. Multivariable generalized linear mixed models were used. Results Predictors of Euroqol-5D-5L (EQ-5D-5L) changes were having worse baseline HRQoL; being female; higher Charlson index score (more comorbidities); complications during admission and 1 month after surgery; having a stoma after surgery; and needing or being in receipt of social support at baseline. For EORTC-QLQ-C30, predictors of changes were worse baseline EORTC-QLQ-C30 score; being female; higher Charlson score; complications during admission and 1 month after admission; receiving adjuvant chemotherapy; and having a family history of CRC. Predictors of changes in HADS anxiety were being female and having received adjuvant chemotherapy. Greater depression was associated with greater baseline depression; being female; higher Charlson score; having complications 1 month after intervention; and having a stoma. A deterioration in all HRQoL questionnaires in the previous year was related to death in the following year. Conclusions These findings should enable preventive follow-up programs to be established for such patients in order to reduce their psychological distress and improve their HRQoL to as great an extent as possible.Open Access funding provided thanks to the CRUE-CSIC agreement with Springer Nature. This work was supported in part by grants from the Instituto de Salud Carlos III and the European Regional Development Fund (PS09/00314, PS09/00910, PS09/00746, PS09/00805, PI09/90460, PI09/90490, PI09/90453, PI09/90441, PI09/90397); the Departments of Health (2010111098) and Education, Language Policy and Culture (IT620-13) of the Basque Government; the Research Committee of Hospital Galdakao; and the thematic network-REDISSEC (Red de Investigacion en Servicios de Salud en Enfermedades Cronicas)-of the Instituto de Salud Carlos III

Long-term nightshift work and breast cancer risk: An updated systematic review and meta-analysis with special attention to menopausal status and to recent nightshift work

This systematic review discusses long-term NSW and female BC risk, with special attention to differences between pre-and postmenopausal BC, to test the association with recent NSW. The review follows PRISMA guidelines (Prospero registry: CRD42018102515). We searched PubMed, Embase, and WOS for case–control, nested case–control, and cohort studies addressing long-term NSW (≥15 years) as risk exposure and female BC as outcome until 31 December 2020. Risk of bias was evaluated with the Newcastle–Ottawa scale. Eighteen studies were finally in-cluded (eight cohorts; five nested case–control; five case–control). We performed meta-analyses on long-term NSW and BC risk; overall and by menopausal status; a subanalysis on recent long-term NSW, based on studies involving predominantly women below retirement age; and a dose– response meta-analysis on NSW duration. The pooled estimate for long-term NSW and BC was 1.13 (95%CI = 1.01–1.27; 18 studies, I2 = 56.8%, p = 0.002). BC risk increased 4.7% per 10 years of NSW (95%CI = 0.94–1.09; 16 studies, I2 = 33.4%, p = 0.008). The pooled estimate for premenopausal BC was 1.27 (95%CI = 0.96–1.68; six studies, I2 = 32.0%, p = 0.196) and for postmenopausal BC 1.05 (95%CI = 0.90–1.24, I2 = 52.4%; seven studies, p = 0.050). For recent long-term exposure, the pooled estimate was 1.23 (95%CI = 1.06–1.42; 15 studies; I2 = 48.4%, p = 0.018). Our results indicate that long-term NSW increases the risk for BC and that menopausal status and time since exposure might be relevant.This research received no external funding

COPD is a clear risk factor for increased use of resources and adverse outcomes in patients undergoing intervention for colorectal cancer : a nationwide study in Spain

We hypothesized that patients undergoing surgery for colorectal cancer (CRC) with COPD as a comorbidity would consume more resources and have worse in-hospital outcomes than similar patients without COPD. Therefore, we compared different aspects of the care process and short-term outcomes in patients undergoing surgery for CRC, with and without COPD. This was a prospective study and it included patients from 22 hospitals located in Spain - 472 patients with COPD and 2,276 patients without COPD undergoing surgery for CRC. Clinical variables, postintervention intensive care unit (ICU) admission, use of invasive mechanical ventilation, and postintervention antibiotic treatment or blood transfusion were compared between the two groups. The reintervention rate, presence and type of complications, length of stay, and in-hospital mortality were also estimated. Hazard ratio (HR) for hospital mortality was estimated by Cox regression models. COPD was associated with higher rates of in-hospital complications, ICU admission, antibiotic treatment, reinterventions, and mortality. Moreover, after adjusting for other factors, COPD remained clearly associated with higher and earlier in-hospital mortality. To reduce in-hospital morbidity and mortality in patients undergoing surgery for CRC and with COPD as a comorbidity, several aspects of perioperative management should be optimized and attention should be given to the usual comorbidities in these patients

Adherence to the Western, Prudent and Mediterranean Dietary Patterns and Colorectal Cancer Risk: Findings from the Spanish Cohort of the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC-Spain)

The aim of this study was to explore the association between three previously identified dietary patterns (Western, Prudent, and Mediterranean) and colorectal cancer (CRC) risk by sex and cancer subtype. The Spanish cohort of the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition study provided dietary and epidemiological information from 15,629 men and 25,808 women recruited between 1992 and 1996. Among them, 568 CRC cases and 3289 deaths were identified during a median follow-up of 16.98 years. The associations between adherence to the three dietary patterns and CRC risk (overall, by sex, and by tumour location: proximal and distal colon and rectum) were investigated by fitting multivariate Cox proportional hazards regression models stratified by study centre and age. Possible heterogeneity of the effects by sex and follow-up time (1-10 vs. >= 10 years) was also explored. While no clear effect of the Prudent dietary pattern on CRC risk was found, a suggestive detrimental effect of the Western dietary pattern was observed, especially during the first 10 years of follow-up (HR1SD-increase (95% CI): 1.17 (0.99-1.37)), among females (HR1SD-increase (95% CI): 1.31 (1.06-1.61)), and for rectal cancer (HR1SD-increase (95% CI): 1.38 (1.03-1.84)). In addition, high adherence to the Mediterranean pattern seemed to protect against CRC, especially when restricting the analyses to the first 10 years of follow-up (HR1SD-increase (95% CI): 0.84 (0.73-0.98)), among males (HR1SD-increase (95% CI): 0.80 (0.65-0.98)), and specifically against distal colon cancer (HR1SD-increase (95% CI): 0.81 (0.63-1.03)). In conclusion, low adherence to the Western diet and high adherence to the Mediterranean dietary pattern could prevent CRC, especially distal colon and rectal cancer

Socio-geographical disparities of obesity and excess weight in adults in Spain: insights from the ENE-COVID study

BackgroundIn Spain, differences in the prevalence of obesity and excess weight according to sex and sociodemographic factors have been described at the national level, although current data do not allow to delve into geographical differences for these conditions. The aim was to estimate national and regional prevalences of adult obesity and excess weight in Spain by sex and sociodemographic characteristics, and to explore difference sources of inequalities in its distribution, as well as its geographical pattern.MethodENE-COVID study was a nationwide representative seroepidemiological survey with 57,131 participants. Residents in 35,893 households were selected from municipal rolls using a two-stage random sampling stratified by province and municipality size (April–June 2020). Participants (77.0% of contacted individuals) answered a questionnaire which collected self-reported weight and height, as well as different socioeconomic variables, that allowed estimating crude and standardized prevalences of adult obesity and excess weight.ResultsCrude prevalences of obesity and excess weight were higher in men (obesity: 19.3% vs. 18.0%; excess weight: 63.7% vs. 48.4%), while severe obesity was more prevalent in women (4.5% vs. 5.3%). These prevalences increased with age and disability, and decreased with education, census tract income and municipality size. Differences by educational level, relative census income, nationality or disability were clearly higher among women. Obesity by province ranged 13.3–27.4% in men and 11.4–28.1% in women; excess weight ranged 57.2–76.0% in men and 38.9–59.5% in women. The highest prevalences were located in the southern half of the country and some north-western provinces. Sociodemographic characteristics only explained a small part of the observed geographical variability (25.2% obesity).ConclusionObesity and overweight have a high prevalence in Spain, with notable geographical and sex differences. Socioeconomic inequalities are stronger among women. The observed geographical variability suggests the need to implement regional and local interventions to effectively address this public health problem

Factors that influence treatment delay in patients with colorectal cancer

A prospective study was performed of patients diagnosed with colorectal cancer (CRC), distinguishing between colonic and rectal location, to determine the factors that may provoke a delay in the first treatment (DFT) provided.2749 patients diagnosed with CRC were studied. The study population was recruited between June 2010 and December 2012. DFT is defined as time elapsed between diagnosis and first treatment exceeding 30 days.Excessive treatment delay was recorded in 65.5% of the cases, and was more prevalent among rectal cancer patients. Independent predictor variables of DFT in colon cancer patients were a low level of education, small tumour, ex-smoker, asymptomatic at diagnosis and following the application of screening. Among rectal cancer patients, the corresponding factors were primary school education and being asymptomatic.We conclude that treatment delay in CRC patients is affected not only by clinicopathological factors, but also by sociocultural ones. Greater attention should be paid by the healthcare provider to social groups with less formal education, in order to optimise treatment attentio

Evolución de los resultados microbiológicos en alimentos de un área sanitaria de la Comunidad de Madrid (1999-2002)

Introduction: In the context of the increasing relevance of food security in the field of the Public Health, the present article try to evaluate the degree of microbiological contamination in foodstuffs, and to search improvement measures.Methods: Retrospective analysis of the results obtained from the samples of foodstuffs from industries and restauration establishements in the district 1 of the Area V of Madrid Autonomous Region between 1999 and 2002.To check the official minutes of inspections of social restauration establishements.Descriptive analysis of the data obtained.Results: The parameters in 116 of the 383 analysed samples (30 ́3%) were higher than permitted by law. The percentage of correct samples in the collective lunchrooms went up from 62% in 1999 to 89 ́9% in 2001 (p&lt;0 ́05).The 32 ́8% of the altered samples were caused by the presence of patogens.The foodsttufs with higher percentage of alteration were the dairy products, followed by the sausages. In the cooked foods, the percentage of alteration was higher in those of group A.The primary deficiences in the social restauration establishements were the absence of non-manual accion tap, the lack of bleach suitable for alimentary use and the inadequate protection of foods.Conclusions: In collective lunchrooms we can observe an improvement in the microbiological results; however, there are still structural and process deficiencies. The results of the other industries cannot be easily assessed due to scarcity of samples.To use bleach suitable for alimentary use in a routine way, can be a measure to reduce the high percentage of group A contaminated foodstuffs.Introducción: En el marco de una creciente relevancia de la seguridad alimentaria en el ámbito de la salud pública, el presente estudio trata de valorar el grado de contaminación microbiológica de los alimentos y proponer medidas de mejora.Metodología: Análisis retrospectivo de los resultados microbiológicos de las muestras tomadas de alimentos de industrias elaboradoras y de restauración del Distrito 1 del Área V de Salud de la Comunidad de Madrid en 1999, 2000, 2001 y 2002.Revisión de las actas de inspección de los establecimientos de restauración social.Análisis descriptivo de los mismos.Resultados: De las 383 muestras analizadas, 116 (30 ́3%) superaron los límites microbiológicos permitidos por la legislación.El porcentaje de muestras correctas en comedores colectivos aumentó del 62% en 1999 al 89 ́9% en 2001 (p&lt;0 ́05).El 32 ́8% de las muestras incorrectas lo fueron por la presencia de patógenos.Los alimentos con mayor porcentaje de incumplimiento fueron los productos lácteos, seguidos de los embutidos. En platos elaborados, el porcentaje de incumplimiento fue mayor en los del grupo A.Las principales deficiencias en los establecimientos de restauración social fueron la ausencia de lavamanos de accionamiento no manual utilizables, ausencia de lejía de uso alimentario e inadecuada protección de los alimentos.Conclusiones: Tendencia positiva en los resultados microbiológicos en comedores colectivos, aunque persisten deficiencias tanto estructurales como de proceso. En el resto de programas los resultados son menos valorables debido al bajo número de muestras.Conseguir una mayor utilización de lejía de uso alimentario podría disminuir el porcentaje de alimentos del grupo A que superan los límites microbiológicos permitidos

Prostate cancer genetic propensity risk score may modify the association between this tumour and type 2 diabetes mellitus (MCC-Spain study)

Background: Some studies have reported an inverse association between type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) and prostate cancer (PCa), but results on this issue are still inconsistent. In this study, we evaluate whether this heterogeneity might be related to differences in this relationship by tumour or by individual genetic susceptibility to PCa. Methods: We studied 1047 incident PCa cases and 1379 randomly selected controls, recruited in 7 Spanish provinces for the population-based MCC-Spain case-control. Tumour were classified by aggressiveness according to the International Society of Urological Pathology (ISUP), and we constructed a PCa polygenic risk score (PRS) as proxy for genetic susceptibility. The epidemiological questionnaire collected detailed self-reported data on T2DM diagnosis and treatment. The association between T2DM status and PCa was studied by fitting mixed logistic regression models, and, for its association by aggressiveness of PCa, with multinomial logistic regression models. To evaluate the possible modulator role of PRS in this relationship, we included the corresponding interaction term in the model, and repeated the analysis stratified by PRS tertiles. Results: Globally, our results showed an inverse association between T2DM and overall PCa limited to grade 1 tumours (ORISUP = 1: 0.72; 95% CI: 0.53-0.98), which could be compatible with a detection bias. However, PCa risk also varied with duration of diabetes treatment -inversely to metformin and positively with insulin-, without differences by aggressiveness. When we considered genetic susceptibility, T2DM was more strongly associated with lower PCa risk in those with lower PRS (ORtertile 1: 0.31; 95% CI: 0.11-0.87), independently of ISUP grade. Conclusions: Our findings reinforce the need to include aggressiveness and susceptibility of PCa, and T2DM treatments in the study of the relationship between both diseases