Linguistic complexity: English vs. Polish, text vs. corpus

We analyze the rank-frequency distributions of words in selected English and Polish texts. We show that for the lemmatized (basic) word forms the scale-invariant regime breaks after about two decades, while it might be consistent for the whole range of ranks for the inflected word forms. We also find that for a corpus consisting of texts written by different authors the basic scale-invariant regime is broken more strongly than in the case of comparable corpus consisting of texts written by the same author. Similarly, for a corpus consisting of texts translated into Polish from other languages the scale-invariant regime is broken more strongly than for a comparable corpus of native Polish texts. Moreover, we find that if the words are tagged with their proper part of speech, only verbs show rank-frequency distribution that is almost scale-invariant

Current log-periodic view on future world market development

Applicability of the concept of financial log-periodicity is discussed and encouragingly verified for various phases of the world stock markets development in the period 2000-2010. In particular, a speculative forecasting scenario designed in the end of 2004, that properly predicted the world stock market increases in 2007, is updated by setting some more precise constraints on the time of duration of the present long-term equity market bullish phase. A termination of this phase is evaluated to occur in around November 2009. In particular, on the way towards this dead-line, a Spring-Summer 2008 increase is expected. On the precious metals market a forthcoming critical time signal is detected at the turn of March/April 2008 which marks a tendency for at least a serious correction to begin. In the present extended version some predictions for the future oil price are incorporated. In particular a serious correction on this market is expected to start in the coming days.Comment: presented by S. Drozdz at FENS2007 conference, 10 pages, 6 Figs, an extended version with the oil market included (Fig.7

Criticality Characteristics of Current Oil Price Dynamics

Methodology that recently lead us to predict to an amazing accuracy the date (July 11, 2008) of reverse of the oil price up trend is briefly summarized and some further aspects of the related oil price dynamics elaborated. This methodology is based on the concept of discrete scale invariance whose finance-prediction-oriented variant involves such elements as log-periodic self-similarity, the universal preferred scaling factor lambda=2, and allows a phenomenon of the "super-bubble". From this perspective the present (as of August 22, 2008) violent - but still log-periodically decelerating - decrease of the oil prices is associated with the decay of such a "super- bubble" that has started developing about one year ago on top of the longer-term oil price increasing phase (normal bubble) whose ultimate termination is evaluated to occur in around mid 2010.Comment: to appear in Acta Physica Polonica

Asymmetric random matrices: What do we need them for?

Complex systems are typically represented by large ensembles of observations. Correlation matrices provide an efficient formal framework to extract information from such multivariate ensembles and identify in a quantifiable way patterns of activity that are reproducible with statistically significant frequency compared to a reference chance probability, usually provided by random matrices as fundamental reference. The character of the problem and especially the symmetries involved must guide the choice of random matrices to be used for the definition of a baseline reference. For standard correlation matrices this is the Wishart ensemble of symmetric random matrices. The real world complexity however often shows asymmetric information flows and therefore more general correlation matrices are required to adequately capture the asymmetry. Here we first summarize the relevant theoretical concepts. We then present some examples of human brain activity where asymmetric time-lagged correlations are evident and hence highlight the need for further theoretical developments

Fifteen-year differences in indications for cardiac resynchronization therapy in international guidelines—insights from the heart failure registries of the European Society of Cardiology

[Abstract] Cardiac resynchronization therapy (CRT) applied to selected patients with heart failure (HF) improves their prognosis. In recent years, eligibility criteria for CRT have regularly changed. This study aimed to investigate the changes in eligibility of real-life HF patients for CRT over the past fifteen years. We reviewed European and North American guidelines from this period and applied them to HF patients from the ESC-HF Pilot and ESC-Long-Term Registries. Taking into consideration the criteria assessed in this study (including all classes of recommendations i.e., class I, IIa and IIb, as well as patients with AF and SR), the 2013 (ESC) guidelines would have qualified the most patients for CRT (266, 18.3%), while the 2015 (ESC) guidelines would have qualified the least (115, 7.9%; p-value for differences between all analyzed papers <0.0001). There were only 26 patients (1.8%) who would be eligible for CRT using the class I recommendations across all of the guidelines. These results demonstrate the variability in recommendations for CRT over the years. Moreover, this data indicates underuse of this form of pacing in HF and highlights the need for more studies in order to improve the outcomes of HF patients and further personalize their management

Differences in clinical characteristics and 1-year outcomes of hospitalized patients with heart failure in ESC-HF Pilot and ESC-HF-LT registries

[Abstract] INTRODUCTION The management of heart failure (HF) has changed significantly in recent decades. OBJECTIVES We analyzed the clinical profile, 1‑year outcomes, predictors of mortality, and hospital readmissions in hospitalized patients enrolled in the European Society of Cardiology Heart Failure Pilot Survey (ESC‑HF Pilot) and Heart Failure Long‑Term Registry (ESC‑HF‑LT). PATIENTS AND METHODS The analysis included hospitalized Polish patients from both registries. The primary endpoint was all‑cause death at 1 year, while the secondary endpoint was all‑cause death or hospitalization for worsening HF at 1 year. RESULTS The study included a total of 1415 hospitalized patients (650 from ESC‑HF Pilot; 765 from ESC‑HF‑LT). The primary endpoint occurred in 89 of the 650 patients (13.7%) and in 120 of the 711 patients (16.9%) from ESC‑HF Pilot and ESC‑HF‑LT, respectively (P = 0.11). The secondary endpoint was more frequent in ESC‑HF Pilot than in ESC‑HF‑LT (201 of 509 [39.5%] vs 222 of 663 [33.5%]; P = 0.04). Compared with ESC‑HF Pilot, patients from the ESC‑HF‑LT registry were older and more often had hypertension, atrial fibrillation, peripheral artery disease, and chronic kidney disease, while the incidence of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease was lower. The percentage of patients receiving drugs for HF (diuretics, angiotensin‑converting enzyme inhibitors, angiotensin receptor blockers, β‑blockers, mineralocorticoid receptor antagonists), anticoagulants, cardiac resynchronization therapy, and implantable cardioverter‑defibrillator were higher in the ESC‑HF‑LT group in comparison with the ESC‑HF Pilot group. CONCLUSIONS Patients from the ESC‑HF‑LT registry had a lower risk of death or hospitalization for worsening HF despite the fact that they were older and had more comorbidities. The results might suggest an improvement in physicians’ adherence to the guidelines on the management of HF in the ESC‑HF‑LT registry