A response to critiques of "The reproducibility of research and the misinterpretation of p-values"

I proposed (8, 1, 3) that p values should be supplemented by an estimate of the false positive risk (FPR). FPR was defined as the probability that, if you claim that there is a real effect on the basis of p value from a single unbiased experiment, that you will be mistaken and the result has occurred by chance. This is a Bayesian quantity and that means that there is an infinitude of ways to calculate it. My choice of a way to estimate FPR was, therefore, arbitrary. I maintain that it is a reasonable way, and has the advantage of being mathematically simpler than other proposals and easier to understand than other methods. This might make it more easily accepted by users. As always, not every statistician agrees. This paper is a response to a critique of my 2017 paper (1) by Arandjelovic (2)Comment: 10 pages 0 figures. Accepted by Royal Society Open Scienc

The characterization and adsorption of sensitizing antibodies

A method of measuring adsorption without washing the tissue has been devised and studied.Diffusion through chopped lung tissue has been studied from a theoretical and experimental point of view. Predicted curves for the y-globulin content of the extracellular space have been calculated and applied to experimental results. The rate of uptake was found to be at least partly diffusion controlled. Adsorption equilibrium and rate constants have been rigorously defined. No evidence was found for a fast initial phase of sensitization or adsorption.Calculations have been performed concerning the consequences of slow steady y-globulin uptake after long periods of incubation.The amounts of rabbit y-globulin adsorbed onto lung tissue were found to be of the same order of magnitude, or somewhat lower, than those previously reported.No evidence against a linear adsorption isotherm was found in any experiments.Neither adsorption nor sensitization were altered by reducing the calcium concentration during passive sensitization.Reduction of the ionic strength of the medium caused a large increase in the amount of Y-globulin adsorbed but did not increase sensitization.Two guinea pig antibodies have been separated by preparative electrophoresis and ion exchange chromatography.The antigenic relationship and purity of γ₁-and γ₂-globulins have been studied. No contamination was detectable in γ₂_globulin, but y₁-globulin contained fast γ₂-globulin and sometimes ß-globulins as well.Ovalbumin (crystallized 5 times) has been shown to contain at least four proteins.It has been shown that γ₁-globalin anti-bodies sensitize lung tissues in very low concentrations, but no evidence was found that the very low sensitizing power of γ₂-globulin antibodies was not due to impurity.Quantitative passive cutaneous anaphylaxis experiments performed in parallel with the tests on lung tissue showed that whenever the γ₂-globulin fraction contained antibody it appeared more potent relative to γ₂-globulin than when tested on lung tissue although the γ₁-globulin was always considerably more potent in both tests.The skin sensitization produced by the γ₂--globulin fraction disappeared faster than that produced by the γ₁-globulin fraction.It was not possible to detect enough γ₁-globulin contaminant in the γ₂-globulin fraction to account for the skin sensitizing ability of the latter.It was concluded that γ₂-globulin antibody must have some skin sensitizing ability of its own, but that it is considerably less potent than the γ₁-globulin antibody.No difference was detectable between the extents of adsorption of γ₁-and γ₂-globulins onto lung tissue.An equation has been derived describing the loss of thiosulphate by radiative oxidation in iodine-131 solutions.An analysis has been presented of interpolation and other errors in a rapid method for assaying large numbers of histamine solutions using visual linear interpolation between two standards

The QT interval in lightning injury with implications for the cessation of metabolism hypothesis

An hypothesis is presented to provide an alternative to the Cessation of Metabolism hypothesis often invoked in lightning injury. Cessation of Metabolism has been proposed to explain the observation of good recovery after a prolonged period in cardiac arrest in some lightning injured patients. Reevaluation of EEGs from lightning injured patients show a high incidence of QT prolongation. Reexamination of the cases used to support Cessation of Metabolism also reveals little evidence to justify the hypothesis. The finding of QT prolongation coupled with the hyperadrenergic state said to exist in lightning injury, may promote a state of episodic induction of and recovery from Torsade de Pointes Ventricular Tachycardia (VT). Histological examination of the myocardium supports the new hypothesis. This the first concerted description of lightning injury as one of the general causes of QT prolongation. It appears to occur frequently after lightning injury, is a prerequisite of and predisposes to episodes of Torsade de Pointes VT. These electrocardiographic abnormalities explain Cessation of Metabolism and recognition may change management and lead to greater survival

At the Margin of Empire: John Webster and Hokianga 1841-1900

Hokianga trader John Webster (1818-1912) lived a long and sometimes colourful life. It was enough to get him a page in Guy Scholefield’s 1940 Dictionary of New Zealand Biography, which concluded with praise for Webster’s “knowledge of Māori and sympathy for the race.”[i] James Cowan was similarly hagiographic in his 1930s series on famous New Zealanders in the New Zealand Railways Magazine. For Cowan, Webster was one of those “who sought their fortunes in the wildest parts of the earth, and distinguished themselves as pioneers of enterprise, self-reliance, and cool courage.”[ii] But our views of history have changed since then. The editors of the current Dictionary of New Zealand Biography thought there were far too many white male settler stories. They purged the cast, and Webster was one of the banished.[i] G. H. Scholefield (ed) “Webster, John”, A Dictionary of New Zealand Biography, Whitcomb & Tombs, Wellington 1940, volume II, p. 477.[ii] James Cowan “Famous New Zealanders – No. 43 – John Webster of Hokianga – The Adventures of a Pioneer”, New Zealand Railways Magazine, 1 October 1936, p. 17

Trifluoromethylation of carbonyl groups in aromatic poly(ether ketone)s: formation of strongly polar yet surface-hydrophobic poly(arylenenecarbinol)s

Fluoride-catalyzed reactions of trimethyl(trifluoromethyl)silane with a range of aromatic poly(ether ketone)s, both amorphous and semi-crystalline, proceed quantitatively in THF to yield soluble, amorphous polymers in which the carbon-silicon bond of CF3SiMe3 has added across the carbonyl-oxygen double bond of each carbonyl group. When the starting poly(ether ketone) is amorphous and soluble in THF the reaction is fairly rapid (hours), but is much slower (days) when the starting polymer is semi-crystalline, with only low solubility in THF. Quantitative desilylation of the resulting polymers is achieved by reaction with excess fluoride ion, affording poly(arylene-trifluoromethylcarbinol)s. These extremely polar polymers are readily soluble in protic solvents such as methanol or ethanol, to give solutions from which tough, coherent films may be cast by evaporation in air. Despite the evidently high polarity of the bulk polymers, the surfaces of cast films are relatively hydrophobic, with static water contact angles of ~ 90°. Surface analyses by XPS are consistent with enrichment of the polymer-air interface in CF3 groups