An agent-based implementation of hidden Markov models for gas turbine condition monitoring

This paper considers the use of a multi-agent system (MAS) incorporating hidden Markov models (HMMs) for the condition monitoring of gas turbine (GT) engines. Hidden Markov models utilizing a Gaussian probability distribution are proposed as an anomaly detection tool for gas turbines components. The use of this technique is shown to allow the modeling of the dynamics of GTs despite a lack of high frequency data. This allows the early detection of developing faults and avoids costly outages due to asset failure. These models are implemented as part of a MAS, using a proposed extension of an established power system ontology, for fault detection of gas turbines. The multi-agent system is shown to be applicable through a case study and comparison to an existing system utilizing historic data from a combined-cycle gas turbine plant provided by an industrial partner

Designing Wind Turbine Condition Monitoring Systems Suitable for Harsh Environments

Research into wind turbine condition monitoring is continually receiving greater attention due to the potential benefits from condition monitoring systems (CMS). These benefits can only be realised with high reliability of the condition monitoring system itself. This paper discusses how CMS reliability can be increased, by introducing four types of robustness and how to design the CMS to meet these requirements. The paper uses a case study CMS installation to illustrate the design requirements, and lessons learned from the installation process

Bail-Out or Work-Out? Theoretical Considerations

In recent years, we appear to have entered an era of capital account crises. In response, a number of new crisis resolution ideas have been put forward, including the establishment of supranational institutions such as an international lender of last resort or an international bankruptcy court, temporary payments standstills and the inclusion of collective action clauses in debt contracts. This paper assesses these proposals using a theoretical model of crisis. The model underscores the importance of adapting policy interventions to the nature of the crisis at hand. For example, it finds that payments standstills and last-resort lending are an equally efficient means of dealing with liquidity crises, both ex-ante and ex-post, while creditor committees are second-best. It finds that debt-write-downs are a preferred means of dealing with solvency crises than subsidized IMF financing because of the negative moral hazard implications of the latter tool. And it finds that international bankruptcy court proposals may be superior to contractual approaches in securing such write-downscrisis resolution, international lender of last resort, standstills, IMF

Medical therapy, percutaneous coronary intervention and prognosis in patients with chronic total occlusions

Objective There is little published data reporting outcomes for those found to have a chronic total coronary occlusion (CTO) that is electively treated medically versus those treated by percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI). We sought to compare long-term clinical outcomes between patients treated by PCI and elective medical therapy in a consecutive cohort of patients with an identified CTO. Methods Patients found to have a CTO on angiography between January 2002 and December 2007 in a single tertiary centre were identified using a dedicated database. Those undergoing CTO PCI and elective medical therapy to the CTO were propensity matched to adjust for baseline clinical and angiographic differences. Results In total, 1957 patients were identified, a CTO was treated by PCI in 405 (20.7%) and medical therapy in 667 (34.1%), 885 (45.2%) patients underwent coronary artery bypass graft surgery. Of those treated by PCI or medical therapy, propensity score matching identified 294 pairs of patients, PCI was successful in 177 patients (60.2%). All-cause mortality at 5 years was 11.6% for CTO PCI and 16.7% for medical therapy HR 0.63 (0.40 to 1.00, p=0.052). The composite of 5-year death or myocardial infarction occurred in 13.9% of the CTO PCI group and 19.6% in the medical therapy group, HR 0.64 (0.42 to 0.99, p=0.043). Among the CTO PCI group, if the CTO was revascularised by any means during the study period, 5-year mortality was 10.6% compared with 18.3% in those not revascularised in the medical therapy group, HR 0.50 (0.28–0.88, p=0.016). Conclusions Revascularisation, but not necessarily PCI of a CTO, is associated with improved long-term survival relative to medical therapy alone