Transport of liquefied natural gas (LNG) by ship occurs globally on a massive
scale. The large temperature difference between LNG and water means LNG will
boil violently if spilled onto water. This may cause a physical explosion known
as rapid phase transition (RPT). Since RPT results from a complex interplay
between physical phenomena on several scales, the risk of its occurrence is
difficult to estimate. In this work, we present a combined fluid-dynamic and
thermodynamic model to predict the onset of delayed RPT. On the basis of the
full coupled model, we derive analytical solutions for the location and time of
delayed RPT in an axisymmetric steady-state spill of LNG onto water. These
equations are shown to be accurate when compared to simulation results for a
range of relevant parameters. The relative discrepancy between the analytic
solutions and predictions from the full coupled model is within 2% for the RPT
position and within 8% for the time of RPT. This provides a simple procedure to
quantify the risk of occurrence for delayed RPT for LNG on water. Due to its
modular formulation, the full coupled model can straightforwardly be extended
to study RPT in other systems.Comment: 22 pages, 11 figure
