Determining crucial factors for the popularity of scientific articles

Abstract

Using a set of over 70.000 records from PLOS One journal consisting of 37 lexical, sentiment and bibliographic variables we perform analysis backed with machine learning methods to predict the class of popularity of scientific papers defined by the number of times they have been viewed. Our study shows correlations among the features and recovers a threshold for the number of views that results in the best prediction results in terms of Matthew's correlation coefficient. Moreover, by creating a variable importance plot for random forest classifier, we are able to reduce the number of features while keeping similar predictability and determine crucial factors responsible for the popularity.Comment: 13 pages, 6 figure