'Revista Brasileira de Hematologia e Hemoterapia (RBHH)'
Abstract
A SIR-type deterministic mathematical model for three hosts is applied to analyze the transmission process for American tegumentary leishmaniasis in Rio Blanco and Las Carmelitas, located in northeastern Salta Province, Argentina, and to derive the expression for the baseline reproducibility number R-o. The model is implemented in the MATLAB environment, and based on data from endemic areas, simulations are performed and numerical estimations of R-o are obtained. Rio Blanco shows R-o = 4.689 and Las Carmelitas R-o = 1.948. By studying the model numerically, we also estimate the force of infection, namely 0.239 and 0.171 (unit 1/year), respectively. The simulations show that in Rio Blanco, the endemic phase was more sustained than the inter-epidemic phase in Las Carmelitas. The estimations of these epidemiological parameters indicate where the Ministry of Health and Provincial Health Department will experience greater difficulty in controlling and eradicating the disease.23112663267
