Historic data from many countries demonstrate that on average no more than
50-70% of the uranium in a deposit could be mined. An analysis of more recent
data from Canada and Australia leads to a mining model with an average deposit
extraction lifetime of 10+- 2 years. This simple model provides an accurate
description of the extractable amount of uranium for the recent mining
operations.
Using this model for all larger existing and planned uranium mines up to
2030, a global uranium mining peak of at most 58 +- 4 ktons around the year
2015 is obtained. Thereafter we predict that uranium mine production will
decline to at most 54 +- 5 ktons by 2025 and, with the decline steepening, to
at most 41 +- 5 ktons around 2030. This amount will not be sufficient to fuel
the existing and planned nuclear power plants during the next 10-20 years. In
fact, we find that it will be difficult to avoid supply shortages even under a
slow 1%/year worldwide nuclear energy phase-out scenario up to 2025. We thus
suggest that a worldwide nuclear energy phase-out is in order.
If such a slow global phase-out is not voluntarily effected, the end of the
present cheap uranium supply situation will be unavoidable. The result will be
that some countries will simply be unable to afford sufficient uranium fuel at
that point, which implies involuntary and perhaps chaotic nuclear phase-outs in
those countries involving brownouts, blackouts, and worse.Comment: 13 pages, extended version of the contributed paper to the World
Resource Forum 2011 in Davo