8th Annual Conference on Systems Engineering Research (CSER) presentatio

Farr, Dr. John V.

Valerdi, Dr. Ricardo

Young, Leone Z.

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The Role of Complexities in Systems Engineering Cost Estimating ProcessesLeone Z. Young, Stevens Institute of TechnologyDr. John V. Farr, Stevens Institute of TechnologyDr. Ricardo Valerdi, Massachusetts Institute of TechnologyPresented to the Conference on Systems Engineering Research 2010                                                        Page 1Presented to the Conference on Systems Engineering Research 2010                                                        Page 2Agenda1. Purpose & Motivation2. Objectives3. Complexity • Overview • Types4. The Proposed Approach • The Constructive Systems Engineering Cost Model (COSYSMO) -Sizing Categories• Mapping and Measuring Complexities with Systems Artifacts• The Systems Modeling Language (SysML)5. Summary & Conclusion6. Future WorkPresented to the Conference on Systems Engineering Research 2010                                                        Page 3Purpose & Motivation• Systems Designs, Systems Complexities & Systems Cost Estimates• Systems Engineers             Systems Cost Estimators• Systems Complexities Impact Estimate Ability on… – Systems Engineering– Project & Program Management– Hardware, Software, Integration• Cost Estimating Community & Literatures• Lack of procedural guidance of systems complexities• Void in LiteraturePresented to the Conference on Systems Engineering Research 2010                                                        Page 4Objectives• Mappings and Measuring Systems Complexities with Artifacts – Requirements, Interfaces, Algorithms and Operation Scenarios (COSYSMO) as Mapping Categories• Awareness of Systems Complexities while Creating Systems Cost Estimates – Impact on Systems Cost Estimates – Systems Cost Estimators = Main Audience• Better Understanding of Systems Complexities• Enhance Systems Cost Estimating Techniques• Support Current Research - Project Management Life Cycle Costing Presented to the Conference on Systems Engineering Research 2010                                                        Page 5ComplexityColwell, B. “Complexity in Design”, IEEE Computer, Vol. 38, No. 10, pp 10-12, Oct 2005“Another group that adopted the word “complexity” is wine connoisseurs. When they say a wine is complex, they mean they think it tastes good, and it strikes a good balance between all the different ways a wine can be measured. Rich and deep, oakywith a hint of fresh bougainvillea blossoms after a rainstorm on a Tuesday…”Presented to the Conference on Systems Engineering Research 2010                                                        Page 6Complexity Types• Literature Reviews• Significantly Investigated – Many Disciplines/Domains– Many Different Typologies• Chemistry • Biogeography • Biology • Ecology• Systems Biology • Project Management• Geography • Management Information Systems • Computer Science • Computer Engineering• Software Engineering • Systems EngineeringTruhlar, D. G., "Molecular Modeling of Complex Chemical Systems", Journal of the American Chemical Society (JACS), 130 (50), 16824–16827, December 10, 2008Presented to the Conference on Systems Engineering Research 2010                                                        Page 7Complexity Types (cont’d)High Energy Accelerator Research Organization, KEK, "First Glimpse of a Protein Molecule Breathing Caught in Action", Feb 12, 2009, retrieved from http://www.kek.jp/intra-e/press/2009/ERATO.htmlPresented to the Conference on Systems Engineering Research 2010                                                        Page 8Complexity Types (cont’d)• Paper documented• 32 Complexity Types• 12 Disciplines and DomainsFjelstad. J., DiStefano, T., and Faraci, A., "Wafer Level Packaging of Compliant, Chip Size ICs", International Journal of Microelectronics, Vol. 17, No. 2, 23-27, 2000Presented to the Conference on Systems Engineering Research 2010                                                        Page 9Quantify Systems Complexities with Systems Artifacts• Management Information Systems &  IT– Bhatacharya et al., 2007– Artifact-Centered Operational Modeling– Dori, D., 2002– Object-Process Methodology– Nigam and Caswell, 2003– Business Artifacts• Robotic Engineering – Takeda et al., 2002– Artifact Intelligence• Systems Engineering – Cost Estimating?Universitat Osnabruck, Robotics Research, Walking Test Robot (WALTER), retrieved from http://www.inf.uos.de/techinf/robotics.htmlHonda, ATR and Shimadzu Jointly Develop Brain-Machine Interface Technology Enabling Control of a Robot by Human Thought Alone, Honda ASIMO, retrieved from http://world.honda.com/news/2009/c090331Brain-Machine-Interface-Technology/Presented to the Conference on Systems Engineering Research 2010                                                        Page 10The Constructive Systems Engineering Cost Model (COSYSMO)Where:PMNS = effort in Person Months (Nominal Schedule)A = calibration constant derived from historical project dataE = represents diseconomies of scalek = {REQ, IF, ALG, SCN}wk = weight for “easy”, “nominal”, or “difficult” size driverΦk = quantity of “k” size driverEM = effort multiplier for the jth cost driver.Systems Sizing Categories• # of Systems Requirements• # of Major Interfaces• # of Critical Algorithms• # of Operation ScenariosPresented to the Conference on Systems Engineering Research 2010                                                        Page 11Mapping and Measuring Systems Complexities with Artifacts Presented to the Conference on Systems Engineering Research 2010                                                        Page 12Mapping and Measuring Systems Complexities with Artifacts (cont’d)Presented to the Conference on Systems Engineering Research 2010                                                        Page 13The Constructive Systems Engineering Cost Model (COSYSMO)Where:PMNS = effort in Person Months (Nominal Schedule)A = calibration constant derived from historical project dataE = represents diseconomies of scalek = {REQ, IF, ALG, SCN}wk = weight for “easy”, “nominal”, or “difficult” size driverΦk = quantity of “k” size driverEM = effort multiplier for the jth cost driver.Quantified Systems Complexities• # of Systems Requirements• # of Major Interfaces• # of Critical Algorithms• # of Operation ScenariosPresented to the Conference on Systems Engineering Research 2010                                                        Page 14The Systems Modeling Language (SysML) ApproachPresented to the Conference on Systems Engineering Research 2010                                                        Page 15Summary & Conclusion• Systems Complexities = Multidimensional• Systems Cost Estimators must recognize– Systems complexities do impact on systems cost estimates– Systems complexities can be inherent in nature and may not be captured all in one particular aspect of SE– Unreliable estimates lead to unfavorable project outcomesPresented to the Conference on Systems Engineering Research 2010                                                        Page 16Future Work• Systems Integration Cost Estimating Effort• Systems Project/Program Management Cost Estimating Effort– Complexities• Types• Roles• Depths• Durations• MagnitudePresented to the Conference on Systems Engineering Research 2010                                                        Page 17Project Management Life Cycle Costing Framework & COSYSMOPresented to the Conference on Systems Engineering Research 2010                                                        Page 18Questions?Suggestions?Presented to the Conference on Systems Engineering Research 2010                                                        Page 19Reserve for Back UpPresented to the Conference on Systems Engineering Research 2010                                                        Page 20Summary of Life Cycle Cost Estimating MethodsPresented to the Conference on Systems Engineering Research 2010                                                        Page 21Summary of Complexities Presented to the Conference on Systems Engineering Research 2010                                                        Page 22Summary of Complexities (cont’d) Presented to the Conference on Systems Engineering Research 2010                                                        Page 23Summary of Complexities (cont’d) 

The Role of Complexities in Systems Engineering Cost Estimating Processes

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The Role of Complexities in Systems Engineering Cost Estimating Processes

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