The evaluation of strategic decisions with real options

Abstract

Opsiyon seçenek anlamına gelmektedir, organizasyonun sahip olduğu seçenekler firmaların daha da başarılı olmalarını sağlarken başarısızlık riskini de ortadan kaldırmalıdır. Firma yöneticilerinin görevi bu seçenekler kümesini en etkin değeri sağlayacak şekilde yönetmektir. Stratejik opsiyon kümesinin en etkin şekilde yönetilebilmesi için stratejik opsiyonların değerini etkileyen unsurların neler olduğunun belirlenebilmesi gerekmektedir. Stratejik opsiyonların değeri tek bir unsurdan oluşmamaktadır. Firmanın sahip olduğu stratejik seçenekler kümesinin değerli olması stratejik opsiyondan elde edilen değerin bir göstergesidir ancak değerin tamamını açıklamamaktadır. Firma yöneticileri bu stratejik opsiyon kümesinden bazılarını kullanmaya karar vermekte, çevre koşulları, firma yöneticisinin özellikleri ve benzeri unsurlar kullanılan bu opsiyonun değerini etkilemektedir. Bu sebeple sorgulanması gereken bir unsurda firmanın kullanmayı seçtiği stratejik opsiyonların değeridir, ancak firmaların değerli stratejik opsiyon seçmeleri firma performansına her zaman katkı sağlamamaktadır. Stratejik opsiyonların etkin yönetimi için göz önüne alınması gereken bir diğer unsur, stratejik opsiyonların kullanımının etkin bir şekilde yönetilmesidir. Firmalar değerli bir stratejik opsiyon kullanmayı seçmiş olsalar bile uygulamadan kaynaklanan hatalar bu değerin elde edilmesini engelleyebilmektedir. Stratejik opsiyonlar değerlendirilirken, stratejik opsiyonların firmanın yetkinlik geliştirme sürecine ve ardıl stratejik opsiyonlara olan etkisinin ve bu ilişkinin firmaya katkısının da incelenmesi gereklidir. Bu çalışma kapsamında stratejik opsiyonların değerini etkileyen tüm bu unsurlar göz önüne alınmış ve stratejik opsiyonların değerini etkileyen unsurların neler olduğu belirlenmeye çalışılmıştır. Bu amaçla İMKB'ye bağlı firmalarda uygulama yapılmıştır. Anahtar Kelimeler: Stratejik  opsiyonlar, firma performansı, yetenek geliştirme, çok ölçütlü istatistiksel karar verme.The developments in the recent years such as removal of cross border barriers in Europe; the globalization of product markets, the technology developments, and the change in the organization forms increased the competition among firms. This increased competition caused high level of changes in the firms' environment and uncertainty for organizations of all types. The high level of competition and uncertainty forced firms to make right and on time strategic decisions in order to survive. The management practices for the stable environments are not suitable for the new dynamic environment. In order to respond to this dynamic and uncertain environment, managers and academicians focused on the organization's strategic flexibility. According to the strategic options view the main property of strategic flexibility is the ability to access to the resources and capabilities when they are needed (Sanchez, 1993). Strategic flexibility is defined as "condition of having strategic options that are created through combined effects of an organization's coordination flexibility in acquiring and using flexible resources" (Sanchez, 1993). According to this definition in order to have strategic flexibility, firms need to have strategic options and the main task of the managers is to define, develop, acquire and coordinate the resources and competencies that will optimize the value of strategic options cluster. Therefore managers should answer the question "exercising what kind of options result will optimize the value created and captured through the strategic options and what are the factors affecting this process"? In literature several researchers emphasized the value of strategic options (Reuer and Leiblein, 2000; Tong and Reuer, 2006; Vassolo et al., 2004; Sanchez, 2003). According to McGrath et al. (2004) the link between real options, the factors that are effecting these options and the performance is largely unexamined. There is a need to understand the factors that affect the value created and captured through the strategic options. The objective of this study is to reveal this relation and the effectiveness of it. In the study the factors affecting the value crated and captured through strategic options are classified as firms' internal factors (firm size, management practices etc) and environmental factors (uncertainty, munificence). On the other hand Coff and Laverty (2007) claimed that strategic options differ from financial options: in strategic options, significant uncertainty remains at the exercise decision, and the value of knowledge depends on its transfer and integration within the firm. Even if managers are able to create valuable options, the value captured from a firm's options may still be low. The management of strategic options therefore includes both creating valuable strategic options and capturing the value of a firm's strategic options. Based on the main question "what are the factors affecting the value created and captured through the strategic options" five research questions are evaluated: i) What are the factors effecting the value of strategic options portfolio? ii) What are the factors that affect a firm's ability to choose an optimal portfolio of strategic options to develop (e.g., strategic planning processes, strategic decision processes), iii) what is the relation between competence building process and exercising strategic options, iv) what is the value of the strategic options that trigger the sequential strategic options? v) What are the factors that affect management's ability to capture value from its strategic options (e.g., operational capabilities important in implementing options)? In order to answer the research questions a five period model is developed. The market value of a firm is the sum of the market value of these two components. Assets-in-place refers to particular allocations of a firm?s resources already made. The value of this component is derived from the stream of cash-flow generated over time. Rights to decide the allocation of resources, have value to the extent that they affect future cash-flow, and their valuation is the principal object of the real options approach. In judging decisions undertaken by managers, investors consider not only the effects of managerial decisions on the amount, time and risk of a firm's expected cash flow, but also on the variables that determine the value of its real option portfolio. Therefore in order to evaluate the value created through strategic options the market reaction is considered. The event study analysis is utilized to measure the market reaction. The multi-attribute statistical models are utilized in order to evaluate the factors affecting the value created and captured through strategic options. Keywords: Strategic options, competence, firm performance, multi attribute statistical analysis

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