Impactos da substituição de importações de produtos agrícolas e agroindustriais na economia brasileira

Abstract

Due to its natural resources, the Brazilian economy has been able, at the same time, to provide the needs of the internal market of agricultural an agroindustrial products as well as of playing a major role in the international market for some agricultural and agroindustrial products. However, it can be observed a negative surplus in the trade balance of some agricultural products. This paper evaluates the impacts that a supposed process of import substitution of agricultural and agroindustrials products would have in the Brazilian economy. To do so, it is made use of the input-output theory, where the imports of the above products are now being considered as domestic products. In this procedure, it was implicitly assumed that there would be some kind of compensatory policy to allow for the domestic sectors to supply the imported products at the same price level as in the international market and that there would not be retaliations in the international market. The impacts are measured by applying different kinds approaches, e.g., multipliers, forward and backward linkages, and field-of-influence, to the observed and modified input-output systems. The results show gains for the economy as a whole, without significant changes in the productive structure. The Textile sector would be the one to respond more positively to the policy being proposed here