This paper proposes a method to construct an adaptive agent that is universal
with respect to a given class of experts, where each expert is an agent that
has been designed specifically for a particular environment. This adaptive
control problem is formalized as the problem of minimizing the relative entropy
of the adaptive agent from the expert that is most suitable for the unknown
environment. If the agent is a passive observer, then the optimal solution is
the well-known Bayesian predictor. However, if the agent is active, then its
past actions need to be treated as causal interventions on the I/O stream
rather than normal probability conditions. Here it is shown that the solution
to this new variational problem is given by a stochastic controller called the
Bayesian control rule, which implements adaptive behavior as a mixture of
experts. Furthermore, it is shown that under mild assumptions, the Bayesian
control rule converges to the control law of the most suitable expert.Comment: 36 pages, 11 figure
