Aerospace Mission Outcome: Predictive Modeling

Abstract

Human-in-the-Loop (HITL)-related models can be applied in various aerospace vehicular problems, when human qualifications and performance are crucial and the ability to quantify them is therefore imperative; since nobody is perfect, these evaluations should preferably be done on a probabilistic basis. The suggested models can also be used in many other areas of applied science and engineering, not even necessarily vehicular engineering, when a human encounters an extraordinary situation and should possess a sufficiently high human capacity factor (HCF) to successfully cope with an elevated mental workload (MWL). The incentive for probabilistic predictive modeling and the rationale for such modeling is addressed in this article on the layman language level