Statistical methods for assessing and predicting the economic impact of natural disasters

Abstract

The different types of evaluation of economic losses in crop from natural disaster are discussed: based on information about partial areas of crop loss; based on the concept of vulnerability; based on dynamic time series; losses of crops in agricultural plants. Predicting crop damage from natural disaster at any level performed on the basis of information on this indicator for several years. It allows to create a dynamic series to determine the trend of damage and accept the method of promising extrapolation