Nielsen, Lars Henrik

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Downloaded from orbit.dtu.dk on: Dec 20, 2017Elbil - scenarier for dansk vejtransport : Energi, CO2 emission og økonomi?Nielsen, Lars HenrikPublication date:2011Document VersionOgså kaldet Forlagets PDFLink back to DTU OrbitCitation (APA):Nielsen, L. H. (2011). Elbil - scenarier for dansk vejtransport : Energi, CO2 emission og økonomi? [Lyd og/ellerbilled produktion (digital)]., Frederiksberg (DK), 8 Mar, 01/01/2011El til Vej-transportFleksible El-systemer og VindkraftWORKSHOP8. marts 2011 kl. 13.30 - 16.30  hos Dansk EnergiElbil - scenarier for dansk vejtransport: Energi CO2 emission økonomi ?Lars Henrik Nielsen SYS Risø DTURisø DTU, Danmarks Tekniske UniversitetContentThe project in short. EV- technology & EV- scenarios• Energy substitution• CO2 emission consequences• Socio-economy / cost of ownership(marginal partial analyses)Some conclusionsBasis for further analyses on • overall power system aspects• power transmission aspects• power distribution aspects13-aug-2008Præsentationens titel2Risø DTU, Danmarks Tekniske UniversitetThe Project:El til Vejtransport, Fleksible El-systemer og Vindkraft.EFP07-II Journal nr.  33033 – 0218Hovedsponsor: EFP07-IIDeltagere:Forskningscenter Risø, DTU: SYS, VEA ØRSTED, DTU: CETRAM-løse edbEnergiNet.dkDansk EnergiOverordnet mål:Analyse af mulige samspil mellem• el- og kraftvarmesektoren og• transportsektoren, dersom dele af vej-transporten baseres• ’plug in’ hybrid- og/eller elbil-teknologi.13-aug-2008Præsentationens titel3Risø DTU, Danmarks Tekniske UniversitetContent1) EV- technology    (assumptions)•Energy substitution•CO2 emission consequences•Socio-economy / cost of ownership(marginal partial analyses)2) EV- scenarios     (based on EPRI scenario)Some conclusions13-aug-2008Præsentationens titel4Risø DTU, Danmarks Tekniske UniversitetVehicles: Passenger cars and LDV < 3.5 tonThe expected ‘close to average’ fleet passenger vehiclesdefined in versions of:Reference: Internal Combustion Engine Vehicle (ICEV)Alternative: Hybrid Electric Vehicle (HEV)Plug-In Hybrid Electric Vehicle (PHEV)Battery Electric Vehicle (BEV) (All-electric)Vehicle data:Ref.: COWI (2007), EPRI (2007), IEA (2009), DOE (2010) 13-aug-20085Risø DTU, Danmarks Tekniske UniversitetLinks assumed:(among defined fleet average vehicles)• PHEVs operated in HEV-mode have the same specific energy (gasoline/diesel) consumption as the defined HEV vehicle.• PHEVs operated in BEV-mode (or charge depletion mode) have the same specific energy consumption (electricity) as the defined BEV vehicle.• HEV fuel consumption equal to 65% of the ICEV within a vintage group.13-aug-20086Risø DTU, Danmarks Tekniske UniversitetVehicle energy consumption:  kWh/km13-aug-2008Præsentationens titel7ICEV fuel consumption: HEV fuel consumption:PHEV electricity and fuel consumption: BEV electricity consumption:Risø DTU, Danmarks Tekniske UniversitetVehicle energy consumption:  km/liter13-aug-2008Præsentationens titel80 5 10 15 20 25 30 352006-20102011-20152016-20202021-20252026-2030Energy consumption per vehicle km (Gas/diesel).  [km/liter]Registration periodSpecific energy consumption for fleet average ICEV,HEV & PHEVPassenger cars and delivery vans <3.5t.    AlternativePHEV in HEV mode (Gas)HEVICEVRisø DTU, Danmarks Tekniske UniversitetElectric Vehicle: Battery size and range per charge13-aug-20089PHEV & BEV: Range [km/charge] PHEV & BEV: Battery size [kWh/pack]Risø DTU, Danmarks Tekniske UniversitetPlug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicles (PHEV):% of annual driving on electricity in DK ?13-aug-2008Præsentationens titel10Source:  Estimated (Weibull) distribution based on data from DTU Transport: ‘Transport Vane Undersøgelse: 2006+2007’.Risø DTU, Danmarks Tekniske UniversitetVehicle specific CO2 emission:  g CO2 /kmCO2Case I : Marginal el-production in DK (coal) Source: DEA (2010)13-aug-2008Præsentationens titel11ICEV CO2 emission: HEV CO2 emission:PHEV CO2 emission: CO2Case I BEV CO2 emission: CO2Case IRisø DTU, Danmarks Tekniske UniversitetElectric Vehicle: PHEV and BEV Battery cost and lifetime13-aug-200812Assumptions:BatCost I :  EV battery cost development scenario based on ref.: COWI (2007) & IEA (2009) BatCost II: EV battery cost development scenario based on ref.:  USDOE, The Recovery Act : TransformingAmerica’s Transportation Sector, Batteries and Electric Vehicles, July 14, 2010.Cost:   $/kWh battery Lifetime:  YearsRisø DTU, Danmarks Tekniske UniversitetVehicle cost of ownership:   $/yearEV battery cost: USDOE July 2010 Scenario13-aug-200813ICEV: HEV:PHEV: BatCost II , US DOE  2010 scenario BEV: BatCost II, US DOE 2010 Scenario   Risø DTU, Danmarks Tekniske UniversitetRelative cost of ownership:   ($/year)/($/year)BEV, PHEV, HEV / ICEV 13-aug-200814BatCost I :  DK DEA  2010 scenario BatCost II:  US DOE 2010 Scenario   Risø DTU, Danmarks Tekniske UniversitetConclusion:  Individual EVsEnergy & CO2 emissionEnergy:• Electricity substitutes gasoline/diesel via the EV. • EV drive trains have potential for being very energy efficient.• 3000 kWh electricity may sustain about 20.000 km average vehicle driving.• Via EVs segments of the transport sector can diversify its energy resource base and reduce dependency on oil based fuels. CO2 emission:• EV CO2 emission relates to the power supply system charging the vehicles. The EV footprint of the individual vehicle change in accordance with the power supply.• According to the Danish ‘reference’ development for the marginal power supply EVs bring almost insignificant CO2 reduction (due to coal dominated marginal power production). However, assuming linear descend to zero CO2 emission in 2050 for the power supply substantial CO2 reduction is achieved via EVs substituting ICEVs. Ultimately EVs may provide zero CO2 emission road transport.• The individual ICEV of today may emit about 2-3 ton CO2 /year. This equals max achievable EV CO2 reduction.13-aug-2008Præsentationens titelRisø DTU, Danmarks Tekniske UniversitetConclusion:  Individual EVsEconomy:• Cost and lifetime of EV batteries much determine the EV economy. Based on (marginal and partial) socio-economic costs of ownership.• In ‘reference’ battery cost development PHEVs may get break-even with the ICEV beyond year 2020. • In ‘alternative’ battery cost development PHEVs may get break-even with the ICEV year 2015.• CO2 emission allowance costs of 2-3 ton CO2 are small put relative to costs of vehicle ownership. May not constitute incentive for vehicle purchase.13-aug-2008Præsentationens titel16Risø DTU, Danmarks Tekniske UniversitetDanish fleet:  Vehicle/fleet renewalSegment: Passenger Cars + LDV < 3.5t13-aug-2008Præsentationens titel17Risø DTU, Danmarks Tekniske UniversitetDanish fleet:  PHEV Scenario:  Market share & fleet development (# PHEVs) Segment: Passenger Cars + LDV < 3.5t13-aug-2008Præsentationens titel18PHEV Market share PHEV: Fleet development Risø DTU, Danmarks Tekniske UniversitetDanish fleet:  PHEV Scenario:  Energy substitution     (TWh/year (fuel or el.))Segment: Passenger Cars + LDV < 3.5t13-aug-2008Præsentationens titel19Risø DTU, Danmarks Tekniske UniversitetDanish fleet:  PHEV Scenario:  CO2 emission (1000 ton CO2 /year)Segment: Passenger Cars + LDV < 3.5t13-aug-2008Præsentationens titel20CO2Case I : Marginal (coal based) power supply (DK DEA 2010) Risø DTU, Danmarks Tekniske UniversitetDanish fleet:  PHEV Scenario:  Socio-economic costs of ownership (Mio.$ /year)(marginal & partial analysis)13-aug-2008Præsentationens titel21BatCost I : Reference   BatCost II : US DOE 2010     Risø DTU, Danmarks Tekniske UniversitetConclusion:  PHEV (& BEV) scenarioEnergy & CO2 emissionEnergy:• Electricity substitutes gasoline/diesel via the PHEV and BEV scenarios. Focusing on year 2030:o PHEV scenario year 2030: ICEV Fuel (gasoline/diesel) substituted: - About 9.0 TWhfuel /yearPHEV fleet electricity consumption: + About 2.5 TWh electricityo BEV scenario year 2030: Fuel (gasoline/diesel) substituted: About 5.4 TWhfuel /year.Corresponding BEV fleet electricity consumption: About 1.7 TWh electricity.The numbers reflect the relative very high energy efficiency of EV drive trains.• EVs in the transport sector can diversify energy resource base and reduce dependency on oil based fuels. CO2 emission:• The EV scenario CO2 emission depends on the power supply system charging the EV fleet. 13-aug-2008Præsentationens titelRisø DTU, Danmarks Tekniske UniversitetConclusion: PHEV (& BEV) scenarioEconomy: Based on (marginal and partial) socio-economic analysis.Economy:• Cost and lifetime of EV batteries much determine the EV economy and outcome of the PHEV and BEV scenarios. • In a ‘reference’ battery cost development the PHEV scenario is close to break-even with reference development. Beyond year 2025 annual socio-economic gains emerge. The BEV scenario, however, show annual deficits throughout the period, though relatively smaller later in the period. • In an ‘alternative’ battery cost development (US DOE 2010) the PHEV scenario is attractive from year 2015 and throughout the period. The BEV scenario becomes cost effective from beyond year 2020. • CO2 emission allowance costs are small put relative to costs of vehicle ownership and the scenario costs. 13-aug-2008Præsentationens titel23

Elbil - scenarier for dansk vejtransport : Energi, CO2 emission og økonomi?

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Elbil - scenarier for dansk vejtransport : Energi, CO2 emission og økonomi?

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