Nielsen, Lars Henrik

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Samfundsøkonomisk analyseNielsen, Lars HenrikPublication date:2011Document VersionOgså kaldet Forlagets PDFLink back to DTU OrbitCitation (APA):Nielsen, L. H. (2011). Biogas produktion i økologisk landbrug. Samfundsøkonomisk analyse [Lyd og/eller billedproduktion (digital)]., København (DK), 31 Oct, 01/01/2011  NaturErhvervstyrelsen  Seminar 31.10.2011 København   BioConcens:   Biogas Socio-economy Biomass and bioenergy production in organic agriculture – consequences for soil fertility, environment, spread of animal parasites and socio-economy.     Biogas produktion i økologisk landbrug  Samfunds-økonomisk analyse    Lars Henrik Nielsen Afd. for Systemanalyse, Risø DTU   2 Risø DTU, Technical University of Denmark Første møde i følgegruppe relateret til ”økologisk” biogasproduktion  • Biogasanlæg, drevet primært på basis af Grønbiomasse   • Hovedresultaterne af udregningerne på samfundsøkonomien for anlæggene og videre – hvordan anvender man optimalt biogas i økologisk produktion –   gårdanlæg eller fællesanlæg?   Hvor mangler der viden?     Seniorforsker, Lars Henrik Nielsen, Risø – DTU.   3 Risø DTU, Technical University of Denmark ”økologisk” biogasproduktion  primært på grønbiomasse  Erhvervet peger på fordele i form af – mindre klimabelastning,  – bedre næringsstofudnyttelse,  – øget højværdiproduktion,  – optimeret sædskifte  og ikke mindst  – afgasset grønbiomasse som vektor for øget omlægning til økologi i egne med begrænset adgang til husdyrgødning.   Dele af erhvervet ser endvidere anlæggene som midlet til  – øget uafhængighed af gødning fra konventionelt landbrug.    Udfordringer: – utilstrækkelig gasproduktion,  – høje omkostninger  og deraf følgende dårlig økonomi i anlæggene er en udfordring  for danske biogasanlæg baseret på grøn biomasse. 4 Risø DTU, Technical University of Denmark Indhold   • Samfundsøkonomisk metode   ( ≠ selskabs-økonomi )  • Biogas:  Hvad medregnes i en samfundsøkonomisk analyse   • Generelle forudsætninger  • Scenarier i BioConcens   • Resultater  • Diskussion: Vigtige faktorer og usikkerheder  5 Risø DTU, Technical University of Denmark Method  socio-economy including externalities   • Difference analysis (cost benefit)  Difference = Alternative – Reference   • Key numbers focussed on:    – Socio-economy  (relative to defined reference organic agriculture) – Energy-balance  Energy-autonomy – CO2 –eq. emission – CO2 –eq. emission reduction cost  – …  • Inputs – What has been impacted: Any kind of ‘relevant’ effect of the alternative!  – Quantification:     To what extents – Monetisation:                Related costs and benefits  – Some effects are reflected in market prices – and some are not..                  Externalities..  – With very few data:   Do s the imp ct have a positive or negative effect for society  6 Risø DTU, Technical University of Denmark Market prices and externalities  Externalities:   Socio-economic costs and benefits      not reflected in market prices  “Socio-economic price”  =    Market price  +  External costs/benefits   Methods for monetising external effects: • Preference-based methods  E.g. via virtual markets that reveal market-preferences   (Interview investigations: How much will people pay to avoid an external effect.)  Theoretical preferable. However, data often not available.    • Cost-based methods  Focus on damage costs due to the external effect.   (Repair of damage, loss of production value, medical costs et.c.)   May not reveal all external costs.   Monetising via: Costs for  avoiding / removing  the negative external effect  7 Risø DTU, Technical University of Denmark Basis socio-economic assumptions • Rate of interest:     5% p.a.   • Base year:  Year 2010  • Period analysed:  Year 2011-2030    Time horizon year 2030 • Terminal values:  Via annuity until time horizon. • Re-investments:  Identical re-investments at life times below time horizon. • Price level:   Fixed year 2008 price level.    (Ex. tax, subsidies et.c.)     • Fuel prices:   Danish Energy Agency forecasts, 2010.    8 Risø DTU, Technical University of Denmark El fra DK net :         Pris og  CO2-emission   9 Risø DTU, Technical University of Denmark Green House Gasses included   IPCC-defined GHGs and GWP  cf. 2. Assessment Report (SAR) :  – CO2  GWP100= 1    (weight based) – CH4  GWP100= 21  – N2O  GWP100= 310    GWP100: Global Warming Potential covering 100 years Other GHGs are not important in relation to biogas plants  Quantify changed emission of:  Carbon dioxide, methane and laughing gas due to the biogas alternatives  Value of GHG emission reduction:  National Quotas  Market for CO2 emission allowances:             NordPool (CO2 emission allowance)    The present analysis :  Danish Energy Agency Forecast from April 2010  10 Risø DTU, Technical University of Denmark Baseline compared to 3 scenarios named:    Biogas I & II  and Combined(Biogas & Ethanol) Centralised plants, each to serve 1000 Ha organic farming Baseline Biogas I Biogas II Combined1000 Ha 10% grass clover 20 % grass clover 10 % winterrye + whey,                    10 % grassclover 11 Risø DTU, Technical University of Denmark Biogas/ethanol:  Production and conversion  Biogas/ethanol yields:Biogas I Biogas II CombinedMethane [MWh/year] 5545 7333 7002Ethanol [MWh/year] 0 0 1283Energy production: Biogas and Ethanol plantsBiogas I Biogas II CombinedElectricity [MWh/year] 1663 2200 2101Heat [MWh/year] 3050 4033 3851Ethanol [MWh/year] 0 0 1283Energy demand for transports [MWh/year] -98 -91 -1512 Risø DTU, Technical University of Denmark Biogas/ethanol:   CO2- Reduction    CO2 - reduction: Biogas and Ethanol plantsBiogas I Biogas II CombinedCO2 eq substituted replacing DK GRID electricity [ton CO2 eq /year] 1405 1858 1774CO2 eq substituted replacing district heat [ton CO2 eq /year] 373 494 471CO2 eq substituted replacing transport fuel [ton CO2 /year] 0 0 342Increased CO2 emissions due to transport [ton CO2 /year] -26 -24 -32CO2-balance, biogas plant, scenario A [ton CO2 /year] 1752 2327 2556    (All heat utilised)CO2-balance, biogas plant, scenario B [ton CO2 /year] 1379 1834 2085    (No heat utilised)13 Risø DTU, Technical University of Denmark Socio-economic aspects included     14 Risø DTU, Technical University of Denmark Results of socio-economic analysis     Summary   (DRAFT) Unit: 1000 DKK (2009) / yearBiogas I Biogas II CombinedResult (A) (A) (A)R0    (plant only) 19 559 -R1    (CO2 added) 367 1019 -R2   (loss in food sales) -1383 -5188 -R3    (externalities) -1252 -5482 -A: All heat produced utilised15 Risø DTU, Technical University of Denmark Diskussion: Vigtige faktorer og usikkerheder   Økonomien ’i’     Samfundsøkonomi  Selskabsøkonomi  Dif. i:  Energipriser   (uden   med)   Subsidier, afgifter mm.    Eksternaliteter   (med   uden)     Hvor mangler der viden?  Usikkerhed på:    Gårdanlæg eller fællesanlæg? Anlægsinvestering pr. M3         Anlægs-Antal  Anlægs-Størrelse    Anlægs-Størrelse     1-2000Ha  x Ha  Biogas i              Økologisk  Konventionelt Landbrug    Afgasser            Gylle/gødning/græs mv.  Gylle/gødning/affald ..  Modtage-gebyr      Tab i indkomst  Gebyr modtages    Udbytte/Pris   ‘relativt’        (lavere/højere  højere/lavere)  16 Risø DTU, Technical University of Denmark  

Biogas produktion i økologisk landbrug. Samfundsøkonomisk analyse

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Biogas produktion i økologisk landbrug. Samfundsøkonomisk analyse

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