A. Cislaghi

E. Chiaradia

G.B. Bischetti

AIR Universita degli studi di Milano

Geophysical Research Abstracts
Vol. 18, EGU2016-11523, 2016
EGU General Assembly 2016
© Author(s) 2016. CC Attribution 3.0 License.
A 3-D probabilistic stability model incorporating the variability of root
reinforcement
Alessio Cislaghi, Enrico Chiaradia, and Gian Battista Bischetti
University of Milan, Agricultural and Environmental Science, Milano, Italy (bischetti@unimi.it)
Process-oriented models of hillslope stability have a great potentiality to improve spatially-distributed landslides
hazard analyses. At the same time, they may have severe limitations and among them the variability and uncer-
tainty of the parameters play a key role. In this context, the application of a probabilistic approach through Monte
Carlo techniques can be the right practice to deal with the variability of each input parameter by considering a
proper probability distribution.
In forested areas an additional point must be taken into account: the reinforcement due to roots permeating the soil
and its variability and uncertainty. While the probability distributions of geotechnical and hydrological parameters
have been widely investigated, little is known concerning the variability and the spatial heterogeneity of root rein-
forcement. Moreover, there are still many difficulties in measuring and in evaluating such a variable.
In our study we aim to: i) implement a robust procedure to evaluate the variability of root reinforcement as a proba-
bilistic distribution, according to the stand characteristics of forests, such as the trees density, the average diameter
at breast height, the minimum distance among trees, and (ii) combine a multidimensional process-oriented model
with a Monte Carlo Simulation technique, to obtain a probability distribution of the Factor of Safety.
The proposed approach has been applied to a small Alpine area, mainly covered by a coniferous forest and char-
acterized by steep slopes and a high landslide hazard.
The obtained results show a good reliability of the model according to the landslide inventory map.
At the end, our findings contribute to improve the reliability of landslide hazard mapping in forested areas and help
forests managers to evaluate different management scenarios.


A 3-D probabilistic stability model incorporating the variability of root reinforcement

https://air.unimi.it/retrieve/handle/2434/465165/757843/Cislaghi%20et%20al.%20-%202016%20-%20A%203-D%20probabilistic%20stability%20model%20incorporating%20.pdf

A 3-D probabilistic stability model incorporating the variability of root reinforcement

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