Simulated and observed evolution of annual dengue incidence for different scenarios of serotype interactions: Model simulation with short term cross-protection only (A,B), Model simulation with cross-enhancement only (C,D), Model simulation with cross-protection & cross-enhancement (E,F).
<p>Wavelet analysis for observed data (G) and observed annual DHF/DSS incidence corrected for under-reporting (H). Footnotes of panels A, C, E: 1. Increased susceptibility and severity in case of secondary infection 2. Dominant period assessed using Fourier power spectrum over 36 consecutive years, 3. Median, minimum and maximum 4. The basic reproduction number reported is the annual average (average vector density and daily biting rates). In Wavelet analysis for observed data (G), the power has been scaled by the global wavelet spectrum. The cross-hatched region is the cone of influence, where zero padding has reduced the variance. Black contour is the 10% significance level <a href="http://www.plosone.org/article/info:doi/10.1371/journal.pone.0051244#pone.0051244-Torrence1" target="_blank">[41]</a>. The 36 years of available data were duplicated to improve comparability with model results (H).</p
