<p>A: regression through observed data of <i>Macoma balthica</i> for the time interval May to June 1997. B: preset slope forced through observed data (in this example slope = 1 for density independence). C: deterministic data calculated from observed data to lie on hypothetical regression line from previous step. D: regression after measurement error, estimated by bootstrapping, was added to deterministic data, one example of 10000 simulations. E: additionally, before adding measurement error, process error was added to log<i>D<sub>t</sub></i><sub>+1</sub>, to arrive at observed residual deviance from first step, one example of 10000 simulations. F: modelled slope values with prediction intervals for various preset slopes, simulated with observed measurement error alone (white line for slope values and grey bootstrap interval) and observed process error additionally (black dots and whiskers). The dashed line gives the observed slope from step A. In this case the observed slope falls within the modelled prediction interval, whatever the preset slope (i.e. assumed true slope) is.</p
