The mean of 1000 stochastic realisations for the number of daily symptomatic cases documented by date of onset (solid black line) plotted with the epidemic curve (solid red line).

Abstract

<p>Also shown is the mean of 1000 realisations of the SEIR model (dashed black line) and an eigendecomposition of the epidemic curve (dashed red line). The grey shaded area shows the 95% confidence interval. Day 0 corresponds to the start of the epidemic on February 7.</p