Comparison of ONCHOSIM-predicted trends in infection during 15 to 17 years of ivermectin mass treatment to previously published data.

Abstract

<p>Data are from one hyperendemic village in the River Gambia focus in Senegal where annual and 6-monthly mass treatment took place (closed circles), and three hyperendemic village in the River Bakoye focus in Mali where only annual mass treatment took place (closed diamonds, open squares and triangles) <a href="http://www.plosone.org/article/info:doi/10.1371/journal.pone.0115886#pone.0115886-Diawara1" target="_blank">[2]</a>, <a href="http://www.plosone.org/article/info:doi/10.1371/journal.pone.0115886#pone.0115886-Traore1" target="_blank">[4]</a>. ONCHOSIM predictions (black lines) are the averages of 100 repeated simulations, which were based on either of two assumption sets for ivermectin efficacy (<a href="http://www.plosone.org/article/info:doi/10.1371/journal.pone.0115886#pone-0115886-t002" target="_blank">Table 2</a>). After about ten mass treatment rounds (1994–1995), the model predictions based on ivermectin assumption set 1 are at most somewhat pessimistic compared to the data, though discrepancies may also be due to inaccuracy of data used to populate the model (e.g. information on pre-control infection levels and/or coverage and timing of mass treatment). The seemingly large discrepancies between predictions and data after the year 2005 are due to CMFL values close to zero that had been rounded down to one decimal before logarithmic transformation.</p