Effects of future control strategy on remaining program duration and treatment rounds until elimination.

Abstract

<p>All differences are defined compared to the strategy of continuing annual treatment strategy at maintained treatment coverage, and are based on the assumptions of low variation in exposure to fly bites. Estimates are pooled over all combinations of number of past treatment rounds and pre-control community microfilarial load (see <a href="http://www.plosone.org/article/info:doi/10.1371/journal.pone.0115886#pone-0115886-g004" target="_blank">Figs. 4</a>, <a href="http://www.plosone.org/article/info:doi/10.1371/journal.pone.0115886#pone.0115886.s003" target="_blank">S3</a>, <a href="http://www.plosone.org/article/info:doi/10.1371/journal.pone.0115886#pone.0115886.s004" target="_blank">S4</a>, and <a href="http://www.plosone.org/article/info:doi/10.1371/journal.pone.0115886#pone.0115886.s005" target="_blank">S5</a> for more detailed estimates of reduction in program duration by pre-control community microfilarial load).</p><p>* Estimates were similar for different assumptions about pre-control levels of infection and number of past treatment rounds.</p><p>** When future mass treatment coverage was assumed to drop, the reduction in program duration tended to be smaller for settings with fewer past treatment rounds and higher pre-control infection levels (and vice versa). Analogously, when future mass treatment coverage was assumed to drop, the increase in remaining number of mass treatment rounds tended to be higher for settings with fewer past treatment rounds and higher pre-control infection levels (and vice versa).</p><p>Effects of future control strategy on remaining program duration and treatment rounds until elimination.</p