Sensitivity of the long-term reduction in microfilarial load in individuals under 20 years of age to the assumed rate of decay of vaccine efficacy.

Abstract

<p>The mean duration of vaccine prophylactic (against incoming L3 larvae) and therapeutic (against microfilariae) activity is 1/the rate of decay (i.e. 5, 10, 20 and 50 years). We illustrate with a pre-control endemicity of 40% microfilarial prevalence. The solid line indicates the baseline (pre-control) contribution of each group to the overall microfilarial load, which is the product of multiplying the age- and sex-specific microfilarial loads (<a href="http://www.plosntds.org/article/info:doi/10.1371/journal.pntd.0003938#pntd.0003938.g003" target="_blank">Fig 3B</a>) times the proportion of the population within each corresponding demographic stratum (<a href="http://www.plosntds.org/article/info:doi/10.1371/journal.pntd.0003938#pntd.0003938.g002" target="_blank">Fig 2</a>). The dotted lines correspond to these contributions after 15 years of vaccination for decreasing waning rates of the prophylactic and therapeutic effects of the vaccine; the lower the rate, the greater the reduction in microfilarial loads achieved by the vaccination programme. Other assumptions as in <a href="http://www.plosntds.org/article/info:doi/10.1371/journal.pntd.0003938#pntd.0003938.g004" target="_blank">Fig 4</a>.</p

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