Bronstert, A.

Guntner, A.

Jaeger, A.

Krol, M.

English

Krol, Martinus S.

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Regional integrated modelling of water availability and crop production in the semi-arid north-east of Brazil considering climate change impacts

University of Twente Research Information

Geophysical Research Abstracts, Vol. 6, 01649, 2004SRef-ID: 1607-7962/gra/EGU04-A-01649c© European Geosciences Union 2004REGIONAL INTEGRATED MODELLING OFWATER AVAILABILITY AND CROP PRODUCTIONIN THE SEMI-ARID NORTHEAST OF BRAZILCONSIDERING CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTSA. Bronstert (1,2), A. Jaeger (2), M. Krol (3), A. Güntner (4)(1) University of Potsdam, Germany (axelbron@rz.uni-potsdam.de), (2) Potsdam-Institute forClimate Impact Research, Germany, (3) University of Twente, Enschede, The Netherlands, (4)Geoforschungszentrum Potsdam, GermanyMany semi-arid regions are characterised by water scarcity and vulnerability of nat-ural resources, pronounced climatic variability and social stress situations. Integratedstudies including climatology, hydrology, and socio-economy are required both foranalysing the dynamic natural conditions and to assess possible strategies to makesemi-arid regions less vulnerable to the present and changing climate. The model in-troduced here dynamically describes the relationships between climate forcing, wateravailability, agriculture and societal processes. The model has been tailored to simulatethe complex situation in the semi-arid NE-Brazil by a quantitative manner includingthe sensitivity to climate change. The results presented show the general functioningof the integrated model, with a primary focus on climate change impacts. It becomesevident, that due to large differences in regional climate scenarios, it is still impossibleto give quantitative values for the most probable development, e.g. to assign probabil-ities to the simulated results. However, it becomes clear that water is a very crucialfactor, and that an efficient and ecologically sound water management is a key ques-tion for the further development of that semi-arid region. The simulation results show,that independent of the differences in climate change scenarios, agriculture is morevulnerable to drought impacts in the case of rain-fed farming compared to irrigatedfarming. However, the capacity of irrigation and other water infrastructure systemsto enhance resilience in respect to climatic fluctuations is significantly constrained incase of an overall and significant negative precipitation trend.

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Regional integrated modelling of water availability and crop production in the semi-arid north-east of Brazil considering climate change impacts

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University of Twente Research Information