Can
Switching from Coal to Shale Gas Bring Net Carbon Reductions to China?
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Abstract
To
increase energy security and reduce emissions of air pollutants and
CO<sub>2</sub> from coal use, China is attempting to duplicate the
rapid development of shale gas that has taken place in the United
States. This work builds a framework to estimate the lifecycle greenhouse
gas (GHG) emissions from China’s shale gas system and compares
them with GHG emissions from coal used in the power, residential,
and industrial sectors. We find the mean lifecycle carbon footprint
of shale gas is about 30–50% lower than that of coal in all
sectors under both 20 year and 100 year global warming potentials
(GWP<sub>20</sub> and GWP<sub>100</sub>). However, primarily due to
large uncertainties in methane leakage, the upper bound estimate of
the lifecycle carbon footprint of shale gas in China could be approximately
15–60% higher than that of coal across sectors under GWP<sub>20</sub>. To ensure net GHG emission reductions when switching from
coal to shale gas, we estimate the breakeven methane leakage rates
to be approximately 6.0%, 7.7%, and 4.2% in the power, residential,
and industrial sectors, respectively, under GWP<sub>20</sub>. We find
shale gas in China has a good chance of delivering air quality and
climate cobenefits, particularly when used in the residential sector,
with proper methane leakage control