Native Dutch are emigrating from the Netherlands in surprisingly large numbers. This column shows that most Dutch emigrants are choosing to exit due to dissatisfaction with the quality of the public domain, particularly high population density. Is their exit a vote of no confidence in the Dutch government?

Dalen van, H.P.

Henkens, C.J.I.M.

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Exit, voice and loyalty in the Netherlands
Hendrik P. van Dalen   Kène Henkens
6 October 2008
Native Dutch are emigrating from the Netherlands in surprisingly large numbers. This column shows
that most Dutch emigrants are choosing to exit due to dissatisfaction with the quality of the public
domain, particularly high population density. Is their exit a vote of no confidence in the Dutch
government?
For the fifth year in a row, emigration from the Netherlands exceeded immigration last year, reaching
123,000  emigrants,  which  amounts to 7.5  emigrants per 1000  inhabitants.  Dutch  media  has
repeatedly reported this phenomenon because it caught demographic forecasters by surprise. The last
emigration wave occurred fifty years ago, and at present the Netherlands is the only Western
European country experiencing net emigration, although similar trends are visible in the UK (Salt and
Rees, 2006) and to lesser extent in Germany.
People leaving the Netherlands on such a large scale has worried the media and politicians. The big
Dutch  puzzle  is  that  it  contradicts  common  knowledge  and  economic  logic.  The  reason  why
immigrants come to the United States or Europe has been widely, studied and the general driving
force behind these migration flows is thought to be a higher standard of living (cf. Hatton and
Williamson, 2005). The Netherlands is one of the most prosperous countries in the world, so why are
people leaving a country that has been immigrants’ destination for so many years?
To  answer  this  question,  we  examined  national  data  to  see  who  has  left  and  surveyed  a
representative sample of the Dutch in 2005 to learn who had emigration plans. To generate more
in-depth insight into the characteristics of the Dutch emigrant, we also carried out a survey among a
focus group of potential emigrants who had visited an emigrants’ fair. In 2007, with the help of
Statistics Netherlands, we tracked the whereabouts of all those surveyed in 2005.
Who has left?
National emigration figures for 1999 to 2006 show that men are twice as likely to emigrate as women,
and it is mostly the young (under 30) who emigrate. Furthermore, it is the Dutch in the top decile of
the income distribution who are most likely to emigrate. Sixty-nine percent of Dutch emigrants choose
a Eur o pean des tinatio n. It s ho uld not be a s ur pr is e that m o s t em igr ants m ove to o ne of the
neighbouring countries Germany and Belgium. However, it is well established that this applies mainly
to cross-border migration, where people live just across the border and still work in the Netherlands.
High housing and land prices in the Netherlands drive many to move to Belgium or Germany, which
offer spacious houses that are almost unaffordable for middle-income households in the Netherlands.
When Belgium and Germany are left out of the equation, 31% of emigrants are headed to European
destinations. The US and Canada account for another 15%. Table 1 lists the top ten destinations for
native Dutch emigrants.
Table 1 Where do Dutch emigrants go?
  Destination
Frequency
distribution
Age at time of
departure
%
self-employed
%
single
1 Belgium 21.1 40.3 9.0 24.8
 
Why are the Dutch leaving the Netherlands? | vox - Research-based poli... http://www.voxeu.org/index.php?q=node/2044
1 van 5 28-7-2009 11:292 Germany 17.1 40.6 7.2 24.3
3 France 6.5 45.5 10.3 20.9
4 USA 6.4 35.6 3.3 29.5
5 UK 6.1 32.8 2.2 42.6
6 Spain 5.9 43.7 9.6 25.9
7
Netherlands Antilles
and Aruba
5.5 35.5 4.3 26.2
8 Australia 3.3 33.9 4.8 34.3
9 Canada 2.7 38.2 17.8 20.0
10 Switzerland 2.0 36.2 3.1 33.2
Source: Statistics Netherlands
Why leave?
Based on our emigration survey in 2005, we established that 3% of the Dutch population had rather
firm emigration plans. Many fulfilled their intentions: 24% had left after two years. Considering the
fact that emigration is a complex process tied up with a lot of red tape and long-lasting problems such
as selling a house or a business, this percentage is quite high.
The thousand-dollar question surrounding the Dutch emigration wave is, of course, why leave?
Examining the determinants of emigration intentions and subsequent actions reveals a clear picture.
The determinants may classified into two groups: (a) the individual characteristics that one would
expect to be relevant if emigration were a matter of private gains (like age, human capital, health,
networks, psychological personality characteristics) and (b) the provision and perceived quality of the
public domain of life in the Netherlands. Every individual depends on the actions and solidarity of
others and perhaps more so in a crowded country such as the Netherlands which is also known for its
extensive welfare state. The following elements were determined – based on a statistical analysis – to
represent the public domain: (1) the Dutch welfare state and institutions which provide the public
goods and services (law and order, social security, education, health care); (2) the quality of the
public space (noise pollution, space, nature, crowdedness); and (3) the evaluation of social problems
addressed by the government, like crime, pollution, and ethnic tensions.
The results of our study reveal that both the private and the public domain of life are important to
understanding emigration from a high-income country like the Netherlands. The more negative one is
about the public domain, the more likely it is that one will actually emigrate (see Figure 1). Of course,
the Dutch who stayed are also negative about large parts of the public domain, but emigrants
(“movers” and “dreamers”, i.e. those who intended to emigrate but have not yet) are far more
negative than those staying behind.1 The biggest difference between emigrants and those staying
behind is the evaluation of the quality of public space. Without knowing how people feel about the
quality of the public domain, large-scale emigration would remain a mystery.
Figure 1 Evaluation of the living conditions in the Netherlands, by migration status
Why are the Dutch leaving the Netherlands? | vox - Research-based poli... http://www.voxeu.org/index.php?q=node/2044
2 van 5 28-7-2009 11:29Note: Dreamers are Dutch who intended to emigrate but have not (yet) done so; stayers are Dutch
who did not intend to emigrate and have indeed stayed; movers are Dutch who intended to emigrate
and have done so.
Of course, one may wonder whether all those aspects the emigrants loath will be much better in their
country of destination. At the time of the survey, we only asked about their expectations, and in this
respect all emigrants believed the public space would be far better and the social problems less severe
in their “promised land”. It is striking that only 17% believed they would attain a higher income
abroad and even 29% expected that their income would drop.
Who remains loyal?
The fact that Dutch leave their country for reasons that are directly tied to the quality of the public
domain makes one wonder how many, disillusioned with exercising their voice, would abandon loyalty
and head for the exit (Hirschman, 1970). We performed a counterfactual analysis to assess the
importance of the public domain in explaining emigration intensions (see Van Dalen and Henkens,
2007). Our calculations suggest that if all Dutch held extremely negative evaluations of the public
domain, approximately 20% of the population (16 million inhabitants) would be inclined to leave the
country. Population pressure is an especially strong driving force. Of course, one could also turn this
gloomy  outcome  around,  as80%  remain  loyal.  However,  this “loyal”  majority  must  be  a  very
frustrated group of people.
Conclusion
Our study suggests that the quality of the public domain is an important part of quality of life, and
those Dutch who have moved are implicitly casting a vote of no confidence in those who govern the
nation. This lesson may also be of some relevance to other European countries where emigration has
taken off and crowdedness has become a concern. For example, England’s population density is
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3 van 5 28-7-2009 11:29Comments
I am a Dutch 'mover' (I
On October 6th, 2008 norvo says:
I am a Dutch 'mover' (I moved 3 years ago from the Netherlands to Ireland) and find this study
interesting, however I have talked to a large number Dutch people living abroad and also to a number
of 'dreamers' still intending to leave and find that the main reason why people want to leave has
nothing to do with the government but more with the possibility of gaining work experience, higher
salaries, wanting to experience the world (why limit yourself to one little country while we are all
world citizens - keep in mind that Dutch people always have moved around a lot to explore and
experience life abroad, with globalization this has only become easier) and having international
partners (as in girlfriend/boyfriend/husband/wife/etc).
Granted, the Dutch regulations are causing way too much red tape and this leads to dissatisfaction
(esp. when having international partners). But most other countries have similar red tape. For
example, it is unbelievable that within the EU the free market still does not apply to pension plans on
a European scale (meaning I can not choose to get a German or Dutch pension plan from my
employer while I work in Ireland, why not??). Same goes for health care, etc. I would love to see a
free market in this on a European scale.
similar to that of the Netherlands (394 inhabitants per square kilometre), and British surveys seem to
register the same type of dissatisfaction witnessed in the Netherlands.
As people forego “voice” by choosing their “exit” option, national governments find themselves in
competitions previously restricted to local governments. Perhaps that is the true sign that we live in
the age of globalisation.
References
Hatton, T.J., and J.G. Williamson, 2005, What Fundamentals Drive World Migration?, in: G.J. Borjas
and J. Crisp (eds.), Poverty, International Migration and Asylum, Palgrave MacMillan, New York,
pp.15-38.
Hirschman, A.O., 1970, Exit, Voice and Loyalty – Responses to Decline in Firms, Organizations and
States, Harvard University Press, Cambridge MA.
Salt, J. and P.H. Rees, 2006, Globalisation, Population Mobility and Impact of Migration on Population,
ESRC Seminar Series, Economic and Social Research Council, Swindon.
Van Dalen, H.P., and K. Henkens 2007, Longing for the Good Life: Understanding Emigration from a
High-Income Country, Population and Development Review, 33: 37-65.
Van Dalen, H.P., and K. Henkens, 2008, Emigration Intentions: Mere Words or True Plans? Explaining
International Migration Intentions and Behavior, CentER discussion paper, no. 2008-60, Tilburg
University.
1 The only exception to this rule is with respect to the income one earns in the Netherlands.
 
This article may be reproduced with appropriate attribution. See Copyright (below).
Topics: Migration
Tags: Netherlands, emigration, quality of life
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4 van 5 28-7-2009 11:29VoxEU.org
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One more thing that needs to be considered is that the Dutch government is requiring people who
move abroad for a few years to unregister as resident, while most other EU countries do not require
this (this could mess up the stats a bit). This also makes it more difficult for people out who want to
go abroad for just a few years to gain work experience, because why return to the Netherlands while
it was almost impossible to grow any capital/social benefits/etc in the home country? It may become
easier to stay where you are or just go to another country where there is less red tape or has
something else appealing.
Why are the Dutch leaving the Netherlands? | vox - Research-based poli... http://www.voxeu.org/index.php?q=node/2044
5 van 5 28-7-2009 11:29

Exit, voice and loyalty in the Netherlands

Native Dutch are emigrating from the Netherlands in surprisingly large numbers. This column shows that most Dutch emigrants are choosing to exit due to dissatisfaction with the quality of the public domain, particularly high population density. Is their exit a vote of no confidence in the Dutch government

Exit, voice and loyalty in the Netherlands

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