China’s Local Government Debt and Economic Growth

Abstract

This paper explores the impact of China’s local government debt on economic growth. This analysis, based on a panel of 31 provinces over 14 years, takes into account a broad range of economic growth determinants as well as various estimation issues including heteroskedascity and omitted variable. The empirical results suggest an inverse relationship between China’s local government debt and economic growth, controlling for other determinants of growth: on average, a 10 percentage point increase in the debt-to-GDP ratio is associated with a slowdown in annual real per capita GDP growth of around 0.27 percentage points per year