The report highlights the demands and supply of organic concentrates

Padel, Susanne

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Organic Eprints

Organic Revision D 41(2) 2004 update of overview supply and demand of organic concentrated feed in the EU     November 2005   Draft 2004 update of supply and demand for concentrated organic feed in the EU (WP42) 27/11/2004 Susanne Padel and Steve Lowman   Data sources: The following countries’ data could be updated for 2004 from the sources available to us (ministries, Eurostat). For land use: AT -  Bundesministerium für Land- und Forstwirtschaft, Umwelt und Wasserwirtschaft URL <http://www.gruener-bericht.at/cms/> DE -  Zentrale Markt- und Preisberichtstelle für Erzeugnisse der Land-, Forst- und Ernährungswirtschaft GmbH URL <http://www.zmp.de/dialog/Formular_Strukturdaten2004.asp> DK - The Danish Plant Directorate. URL <http://www.pdir.dk> ES -  Ministry of Agriculture, Fisheries and Food URL <http://www.mapya.es/es/alimentacion/pags/ecologica/info.htm> FI -  The Plant Production Inspection Centre (KTTK). Statistics supplied by email. FR -  L’Agence BIO. URL <http://www.agencebio.org/actualites.asp?n1=3> HU - Report on the Activity of Biokontroll Hungária KHT: YEAR 2004 URL <http://www.biokontroll.hu/english/>  IT -  SINAB. URL <http://www.sinab.it/> PT -  Instituto de Desenvolvimento Rural e Hidráulica. URL < http://www.idrha.min-agricultura.pt/agricultura_biologica/dados_estatisticos.htm>  NL -  Jaarrapport EKO-monitor. URL <http://www.biologica.nl/eko-monitor/> SE -  KRAV. URL <http://statistik.krav.se/>  UK -  Organic Statistics - United Kingdom URL <http://www.statistics.defra.gov.uk/esg/statnot/orguk.pdf> Eurostat data on crops was used for BE, GR, NO, CZ, LV, LT, SK, and SI. URL <http://www.europa.eu.int/comm/eurostat> For livestock numbers: All of the above, except for those using Eurostat as a data source, and Germany, where 2004 organic livestock data are expected in January 2006.   Organic Revision D 41(2) 2004 update of overview supply and demand of organic concentrated feed in the EU     November 2005 For details on methodology, assumptions and balances for 2002 and 2003 see:  PADEL, S. (2005) Overview of supply and demand for concentrated organic feed in the EU in 2002 and 2003 with a particular focus on protein sources for mono-gastric animals. Aberystwyth, Institute of Rural Sciences, University of Wales, Aberystwyth. http://www.organic-revision.org/pub/wp42_feedoverview_final_deliverable.pdf  Summary of key trends and changes in 2004  The total organic flock in the EU 25 appears to have increased by between 6 and 9 per cent, depending on stock category. Greatest increases occurred for sheep in France, Italy, Spain and the UK. In the other livestock categories, increases in some countries were balanced by decline in others, leading to overall small increases (see Table 3 update1).  The production area of organic cereals increased between 2003 and 2004 by approximately 6 %. Significant reduction (9%) in the cereals area seems to have occurred in Italy, Spain and Hungary, whereas the area increased in Austria, Greece and Portugal (see Table 4 update).  The area for pulses appears to have declined by a further 14% in the EU 25. Reductions occurred in particular in France and Italy as two important producers of organic pulses, but increased in some other countries. There is greater uncertainty in the data for pulses, as not as many countries report data for pulses separately.   On 100% organic rations the demand for concentrate feeds for all organic livestock currently kept in the EU would have risen from approximately 1.1 million to 1.2 million tonnes. The proportions remain unchanged (65% of this demand is for cereals, 26% for pulses that could be grown in most regions of the EU, and 9% for high quality protein sources) (see Table 5 update).  In all three years, the EU would have grown more than sufficient organic cereals to feed all organic livestock on a 100% organic diet. For organic cereals, there seems to be a surplus of supply over demand that would allow for further increases in stock numbers at current feed production levels.  A potential deficit for home grown pulses that was projected for 2003 is likely to have increased further in 2004, because of reductions in the area for organic pulses. It appears that the intended shift to 100% organic diets has not stimulated increases in the production of organic pulses in the EU.                                               1 Table numbering refers to the main report.  Organic Revision D 41(2) 2004 update of overview supply and demand of organic concentrated feed in the EU     November 2005 Table 3 update: Numbers of organic animals in the EU 25 in 2002 to 2004 Animal category 2002  2003 2004    Change 2004/2003 Bovine 1.39  million  1.47 million  1.56 million  106% Sheep 1.71  million  1.64 million  1.88 million  109% Pigs 552,000  473,000 493,000  104% Chicken  (layers and broilers)* 16.1 million  17.3 million  18.34 million  106% *Other categories of poultry were ignored because of the very limited amount of data available.  Source: Own data Table 4 update: Production of organic cereals and pulses in the whole EU 25 in 2002 to 2004 Land use 2002 (ha) 2003 (ha) 2004 Estimate(ha) 2002 (t) 2003 (t) 2004  Estimate (t) Major producing countries Cereals   881,700  948.144 994,230  2.65   million 2.79  million 2.91 million Italy, Germany, Spain and France Pulses  109,500 88,400 75,375  328,000 265,000 230,000 Italy, Germany, France and Austria Figure 4 update: Calculated balance of demand and supply of organic concentrate feed in the EU 25 for 2002 and 2003 (million tonnes)  m t-0.500.511.522002 2003 2004 2002 2003 2004 2002 2003 2004 2002 2003 2004All concentrate Cereals Home grownpulsesHigh qualityprotein Source: Own data  Balance A (current)Current demandSupply for feedSupply 2002 2003 2004 2002 2003 2004 2002 2003 2004 2002 2003 2004Production (3t/ha) 2.97       3.10       3.23       2.65       2.84        2.98        0.33       0.26       0.25       0 0 -         % Animal feed 55% 55% 55% 90% 90% 90%Supply for feed      1.75       1.79       1.86  1.45     1.56             1.64  0.30     0.23          0.22  -      -                  -   Demand 2002 2003 2004 2002 2003 2004 2002 2003 2004 2002 2003 2004Ruminants 0.64       0.65       0.68       0.45       0.46        0.49        0.19       0.19       0.20       -        -          -         Pigs 0.20       0.17       0.18       0.13       0.11        0.12        0.03       0.03       0.03       0.03      0.03        0.03       Poultry 0.30       0.28       0.32       0.15       0.14        0.16        0.08       0.07       0.08       0.07      0.07        0.08       Overall demand 1.14     1.10     1.18     0.74     0.72      0.77       0.30     0.29     0.31     0.11    0.10      0.11      Balance A (current)      0.61       0.69       0.68  0.71     0.84             0.87  -      0.06 -     -     0.09  0.11 -    0.10 -     -     0.11 Area equivalent (1000 ha) 203 230 227 238 281 290 0 -19 -28 -36 -32 -36Percent of total 100% 100% 100% 65% 65% 65% 26% 26% 26% 10% 9% 9%Sensitivity analysisHigher yieldProduction (3.5 t/ha)      3.47       3.62       3.77  3.09       3.31               3.48  0.38       0.30            0.29  -        -                  -   Supply for feed      2.04       2.09       2.18  1.70       1.82               1.91  0.34       0.27            0.26  0 0          -   Balance B (higher yield)      0.90       0.99       1.00  0.96     1.10             1.14  0.04     0.02 -     -     0.05  0.11 -    0.10 -     -     0.11 Change to Balance A (m tonnes)      0.29       0.30       0.32       0.25        0.26        0.27      0.04       0.04       0.04          -              -             -   Modified rations for pigs and poultryDemand modified pigs and poultry only       1.13        1.09        1.17  0.74       0.72               0.77  0.34       0.32             0.35  0.05      0.05              0.05 Balance C (modified P&P)      0.62       0.70       0.69  0.71     0.84             0.87  0.04 -     0.09 -      -     0.13  0.05 -    0.05 -       -     0.05 Change to Balance A (m tonnes)      0.01       0.01       0.01       0.00  -     0.00  -     0.00  -   0.04  -    0.03  -    0.04      0.06        0.05        0.06 Modified rations all animalsDemand with modified rations all species       0.95        0.91        0.98  0.58       0.56             0.61  0.32       0.30           0.32  0.05      0.05             0.05 Balance D (modified all)      0.80       0.88       0.88  0.87     1.00             1.03  0.02 -     0.07 -     -     0.10  0.05 -    0.05 -     -     0.05 Change to Balance A (m tonnes)      0.19       0.19       0.20       0.16        0.16        0.16  -   0.02  -    0.01  -    0.01      0.06        0.05        0.06 All concentrate Cereals Home grown pulses High quality protein nic Revision D 41(2) 2004 update of overview supply and demand of organic concentrated feed in the EU     November 2005 Table 5 update: Supply and demand of organic concentrate feeds in 2002 to 2004 (million t) Orga Organic Revision D 41(2) 2004 update of overview supply and demand of organic concentrated feed in the EU     November 2005  

Overview of supply and demand for concentrated organic feed in the EU in 2002 and 2003 with a particular focus on protein sources for mono-gastric animals

Overview of supply and demand for concentrated organic feed in the EU in 2002 and 2003 with a particular focus on protein sources for mono-gastric animals

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