Population as a Development Factor of Podravina: Podravina Human Resources in Post-Transitional Stage of Intensive Depopulation

Abstract

U zadnja dva desetljeća proces depopulacije podravskih naselja nastavljen je uz zabrinjavajući trend ubrzanja. U ovom članku autori su prikazali glavne elemente koji karakteriziraju kvantitativno i kvalitativno kretanje i strukturu stanovništva Podravine. Ta kretanja povezana su s analizom što ona znače za gospodarski i društveni život i razvoj ovoga kraja. Na početku je analizirano kvantitativno kretanje broja stanovnika od 1948. do 2011. godine, uz prikaz promjena u teritorijalnom rasporedu pučanstva. Potom slijedi detaljna analiza prirodnog kretanja stanovništva, prvenstveno nataliteta, fertiliteta i mortaliteta. Prikupljeni su podaci za sve podravske gradove i općine, te pojedinačno za svih 38 župa Komarničkog arhiđakonata. Analiza spolne i starosne strukture otkriva intenzivne procese starenja stanovništva. Prikazana je obrazovna i profesionalna struktura stanovništva po općinama, kao i kretanje nezaposlenosti. Na temelju tih i drugih kvalitativnih pokazatelja izvršena je tipizacija podravskih općina prema njihovim potencijalima za budući razvoj. Na kraju je data i projekcija broja stanovnika Podravine do 2051. godine. Analiza je poduprijeta velikim brojem tablica i grafikonaIn the last two decades, the process of depopulation of Podravina villages has continued with a dis-concerting acceleration of the trend. The paper shows the main elements characterizing the quantitative and qualitative development and structure of the Podravina population. The relation among the trends is explained in the analysis of their significance for the economic and social life and development of the area. Firstly, the quantitative trend of the number of inhabitants was analysed in the period from 1948 until 2011 accompanied by the illustration of changes in the territorial distribution of the population. This is followed by a thorough analysis of the natural change in population, first of all, the birth rate, fertility rate and mortality rate. Data have been collected for all cities and districts in Podravina, as well as individually for all 38 parishes of the Komarnik Archdeaconry. The analysis of age and sex structure shows the intensive processes of ageing of the population. Educational and professional structure of the population, as well as unemployment trends were shown for every district. Based on these and other qualitative indicators, a typification of Podravina districts was performed according to their potential for future development. Finally, a projection of the number of inhabitants in Podravina by 2051 was provided. The analysis is supported by a large number of tables and graphs

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