Billari, F.C.

Klobas, J.

Research Repository

Social psychological modelling of fertility intentionsFrancesco Billari & Jane Klobas, DONDENA-BocconiIUSSP Marrakesh, 27 September 2009Theory of planned behavior (TPB) model of social psychological influences on fertility decisions2Intention to have a(nother) childAttitudes to having a(nother) childNorms for having a(nother) childPerceived control for having a(nother) childExternal factorsincluding Context(e.g., country)Individual differences(e.g.,  age, education)Social networks*Actual control(e.g., health, finances)* Not studied in WP3Country differences in Intention by parity (GGS Wave 1 data)3GGS indicators of Attitudes, Norms and Control for Having a(nother) Child4AttitudesEmotionalControlPhysical NormsAttitudesFreedomControlS’economic627j Provides certainty in life .847627i ... care and security in old age .772627g ... closeness with partner .732627k ... closeness with parents .678627f ... joy and satisfaction from life .669628g Depends on spouse’s health .956628f  ... having suitable partner .694628d ... own health .606629c Relatives agree .981629b Parents agree .940629a Friends agree .872627a Affects independence .864627c  ... financial situation .705627b ... employment opportunities .691628a Depends on financial situation .982628b ... work .758628c  ... housing conditions .681Cronbach’s alpha .862 .775 .945 .764 .818Principal axis factoring with oblimin rotation. Stable solution across all groups except country – in  Georgia, Attitudes and PBC items load together. TPB factors explain women’s intention to have a second child in 5 countries5Bulgaria Russia Georgia Germany FranceCoeff p Coeff p Coeff p Coeff p Coeff pPositive attitudes (a)0.65 <.001 0.56 <.001 0.60 <.001 0.59 <.001 0.79 <.001Negative attitudes (b)-0.57 <.001 -0.31 <.001 -0.49 0.01 -0.68 <.001 -0.20 0.45Subjective norms0.52 <.001 0.73 <.001 0.89 <.001 0.75 <.001 -0.01 0.97Control (c)0.19 0.08 0.45 <.001 0.35 0.04 0.24 0.11 n.apseudo R-square0.24 0.26 0.28 0.33Effects of PBC variables on intention (coded yes/no) after controlling for age, union status and eduation, standardised coefficients, logistic regression (Philipov, Klobas & Billari, work in progress)Notes. (a) Emotional effects; (b) Effects on freedom; (c) 4 items: socioeconomic + health A subset explains differences in intention to have a child now or later6 Norwegian GGS 2007. Y is timing: now .v. within 3 years. (Dommermuth, Klobas & Lappegard, submitted)PARENTS CHILDLESSModel I Model IIModel III Model I Model IIModel III Perceived behavioural control 1.32** 1.22* 1.18 1.29** 1.12 1.08Subjective norms 1.36** 1.49** 1.50** 1.55** 1.36** 1.34**Positive attitudes 1.27* 1.23 1.29* 1.14 1.14 1.15Negative attitudes 0.99 0.90 0.93 1.06 1.09 1.09Model 1: no control variablesModel 2: includes controls for individual differencesModel 3: includes variables to measure actual controlRelationships among variables being modelled with SEM (to be extended to external variables)7SEM for intention to have first child, males and females combinedAll coefficients significant at p < .01, fit good, explained variance = 55%Comparative modelling requires common measurement base: IRT 8Here,1. All attitudes items are ordered by difficulty of “agreement” (lower panel)2. All R are ordered by probability of agreement with items (and split, for information, by intention, upper panel). R’s with higher scores more likely to agree with more difficult items to agree with and have stronger positive attitudes. Location is invariate, for any subset of items.

Social psychological modelling of fertility intentions

Initial results from the REPRO project show that the theory of planned behavior from social psychology provides a good explanation of fertility intentions in five European countries. After controlling for age, union status and education, Attitudes to positive outcomes explain women's intentions to have a second child in Bulgaria, Russia, Georgia, Germany and France. Attitudes to negative outcomes and Subjective norms also have a significant effect in all countries except France. Perceived behavioral control has a significant effect only in the former Soviet bloc countries. Future comparative modelling will require a common measurement base, and early structural equation models and item response theory models are demonstrated as possible approaches to common measurement

BILLARI, FRANCESCO CANDELORO

KLOBAS, JANE

Archivio istituzionale della Ricerca - Bocconi

https://researchrepository.murdoch.edu.au/id/eprint/23414/1/social_psychological_modelling.pdf

Social psychological modelling of fertility intentions

Abstract

Similar works

Full text

Available Versions

Research Repository

Archivio istituzionale della Ricerca - Bocconi