Hakan Berument

English

Research Papers in Economics

  11 
  Table 1 : Condensed Input-Output Table of the Turkish Economy  (in nominal values, in billion TL, 1990)         
                       
    Input User Sectors                Total 
   Sales By  A1  A2  A3  A4  A5  A6  A7  A8  A9   
A1  Primary Producing Industries*  14926.4  59.0  0.0  22115.4  0.0  4.5  0.5  0.7  2954.0  40060.5 
A2  Mining and Stone Quarrying  12.6  14.4  0.0  2385.9  0.0  505.0  17.9  1228.0  399.1  4562.9 
A3  Crude oil and Natural Gas Production  0.0  0.0  0.0  130.4  10242.4  803.6  18.8  0.0  17.9  11213.1 
A4  Manufacturing Industries  6196.5  393.5  71.6  74164.8  24.5  444.7  189.9  21352.5  17889.3  120727.3 
A5  Oil Refinement  2214.3  311.6  31.3  5541.7  47.1  146.4  75.4  1159.3  12624.0  22151.1 
A6  Electricity  96.0  231.7  9.5  5654.3  118.1  284.8  326.6  86.0  1051.7  7858.7 
A7  Gas Manufacturing, Water Works  134.1  1.8  0.0  330.2  4.0  4.3  16.6  129.3  623.9  1244.2 
A8  Construction  0.0  0.0  0.0  0.0  0.0  0.0  0.0  0.0  0.0  0.0 
A9  Service Industries  7436.0  439.5  165.5  31299.3  573.2  698.3  148.3  8773.0  33898.0  83431.1 
Total Inputs  31015.9  1451.5  277.9  141622.0  11009.3  2891.6  794.0  32728.8  69457.9  291248.9 
Labour costs  7407.0  1968.5  70.7  19242.7  186.3  1965.9  468.1  13317.9  62475.0  107102.1 
Other Income Factors  58404.2  1895.7  1287.6  39630.8  3951.8  2609.1  1123.3  9956.5  104812.0  223671.0 
Total Output Cost  96827.1  5315.7  1636.2  200495.5  15147.4  7466.7  2385.4  56003.2  236744.9  622022.1 
                       
*  Includes Agriculture, Animal Husbandry, Forestry and Fishing                 
   12 
 
  Table 2 : Condensed Input-Output Table of the Turkish Economy (% shares, 1990)           
                       
    Input User Sectors            Total 
Sales By  A1  A2  A3  A4  A5  A6  A7  A8  A9   
A1  Primary Producing Industries  15.42  1.11  0.00  11.03  0.00  0.06  0.02  0.00  1.25  6.44 
A2  Mining and Stone Quarrying  0.01  0.27  0.00  1.19  0.00  6.76  0.75  2.19  0.17  0.73 
A3  Crude oil and Natural Gas Production  0.00  0.00  0.00  0.07  67.62  10.76  0.79  0.00  0.01  1.80 
A4  Manufacturing Industries  6.40  7.40  4.38  36.99  0.16  5.96  7.96  38.13  7.56  19.41 
A5  Oil Refinement  2.29  5.86  1.91  2.76  0.31  1.96  3.16  2.07  5.33  3.56 
A6  Electricity  0.10  4.36  0.58  2.82  0.78  3.81  13.69  0.15  0.44  1.26 
A7  Gas Manufacturing, Water Works  0.14  0.03  0.00  0.16  0.03  0.06  0.70  0.23  0.26  0.20 
A8  Construction  0.00  0.00  0.00  0.00  0.00  0.00  0.00  0.00  0.00  0.00 
A9  Service Industries  7.68  8.27  10.11  15.61  3.78  9.35  6.22  15.67  14.32  13.41 
Total Inputs  32.03  27.31  16.98  70.64  72.68  38.73  33.29  58.44  29.34  46.82 
Labour costs  7.65  37.03  4.32  9.60  1.23  26.33  19.62  23.78  26.39  17.22 
Other Income Factors   60.32  35.66  78.69  19.77  26.09  34.94  47.09  17.78  44.27  35.96 
Total Output Cost  100.00  100.00  100.00  100.00  100.00  100.00  100.00  100.00  100.00  100.00 
   13 
 
  Table 3 : Inflationary Effects of 20% Crude oil Price Increase at the End of the First Iteration (1990)         
                       
    Input User Sectors            Total 
 Sales By  A1  A2  A3  A4  A5  A6  A7  A8  A9   
A1  Primary Producing Industries  15.42  1.11  0.00  11.03  0.00  0.06  0.02  0.00  1.25  6.44 
A2  Mining and Stone Quarrying  0.01  0.27  0.00  1.19  0.00  6.76  0.75  2.19  0.17  0.73 
A3  Crude oil and Natural Gas Production  0.00  0.00  0.00  0.08  81.14  12.91  0.95  0.00  0.01  2.16 
A4  Manufacturing Industries  6.40  7.40  4.38  36.99  0.16  5.96  7.96  38.13  7.56  19.41 
A5  Oil Refinement  2.29  5.86  1.91  2.76  0.31  1.96  3.16  2.07  5.33  3.56 
A6  Electricity  0.10  4.36  0.58  2.82  0.78  3.81  13.69  0.15  0.44  1.26 
A7  Gas Manufacturing, Water Works  0.14  0.03  0.00  0.16  0.03  0.06  0.70  0.23  0.26  0.20 
A8  Construction  0.00  0.00  0.00  0.00  0.00  0.00  0.00  0.00  0.00  0.00 
A9  Service Industries  7.68  8.27  10.11  15.61  3.78  9.35  6.22  15.67  14.32  13.41 
Total Inputs  32.03  27.31  16.98  70.65  86.20  40.88  33.44  58.44  29.34  47.18 
Labour costs  7.65  37.03  4.32  9.60  1.23  26.33  19.62  23.78  26.39  17.22 
Other Income Factors   60.32  35.66  78.69  19.77  26.09  34.94  47.09  17.78  44.27  35.96 
Total Output Cost  100.00  100.00  100.00  100.01  113.52  102.15  100.16  100.00  100.00  100.36 
   14 
 
  Table 4 : Inflationary Effects of 20% Crude Oil Price Increase at the End of the Second Iteration (1990)      
                       
    Input User Sectors              Total 
Sales By  A1  A2  A3  A4  A5  A6  A7  A8  A9   
A1  Primary Producing Industries  15.42  1.11  0.00  11.03  0.00  0.06  0.02  0.00  1.25  6.44 
A2  Mining and Stone Quarrying  0.01  0.27  0.00  1.19  0.00  6.76  0.75  2.19  0.17  0.73 
A3  Crude oil and Natural Gas Production  0.00  0.00  0.00  0.08  81.14  12.91  0.95  0.00  0.01  2.16 
A4  Manufacturing Industries  6.40  7.40  4.38  37.00  0.16  5.96  7.96  38.13  7.56  19.41 
A5  Oil Refinement  2.60  6.65  2.17  3.14  0.35  2.23  3.59  2.35  6.05  4.04 
A6  Electricity  0.10  4.45  0.59  2.88  0.80  3.90  13.99  0.16  0.45  1.29 
A7  Gas Manufacturing, Water Works  0.14  0.03  0.00  0.16  0.03  0.06  0.70  0.23  0.26  0.20 
A8  Construction  0.00  0.00  0.00  0.00  0.00  0.00  0.00  0.00  0.00  0.00 
A9  Service Industries  7.68  8.27  10.12  15.61  3.78  9.35  6.22  15.67  14.32  13.41 
Total Inputs  32.34  28.19  17.26  71.09  86.26  41.23  34.17  58.73  30.07  47.70 
Labour costs  7.65  37.03  4.32  9.60  1.23  26.33  19.62  23.78  26.39  17.22 
Other Income Factors  60.32  35.66  78.69  19.77  26.09  34.94  47.09  17.78  44.27  35.96 
Total Output Cost  100.31  100.89  100.27  100.45  113.58  102.50  100.88  100.29  100.73  100.87 
   15 
 
  Table 5 : Inflationary Effects of 20% Oil Price Increase at the End of the Third  Iteration (1990)     
                       
    Input User Sectors              Total 
Sales By  A1  A2  A3  A4  A5  A6  A7  A8  A9   
A1  Primary Producing Industries  15.46  1.11  0.00  11.06  0.00  0.06  0.02  0.00  1.25  6.46 
A2  Mining and Stone Quarrying  0.01  0.27  0.00  1.20  0.00  6.82  0.76  2.21  0.17  0.74 
A3  Crude oil and Natural Gas Production  0.00  0.00  0.00  0.08  81.36  12.95  0.95  0.00  0.01  2.17 
A4  Manufacturing Industries  6.43  7.44  4.40  37.16  0.16  5.98  8.00  38.30  7.59  19.50 
A5  Oil Refinement  2.60  6.66  2.17  3.14  0.35  2.23  3.59  2.35  6.06  4.04 
A6  Electricity  0.10  4.47  0.60  2.89  0.80  3.91  14.03  0.16  0.46  1.30 
A7  Gas Manufacturing, Water Works  0.14  0.03  0.00  0.17  0.03  0.06  0.70  0.23  0.27  0.20 
A8  Construction  0.00  0.00  0.00  0.00  0.00  0.00  0.00  0.00  0.00  0.00 
A9  Service Industries  7.74  8.33  10.19  15.73  3.81  9.42  6.26  15.78  14.42  13.51 
 Total Inputs  32.48  28.31  17.35  71.42  86.52  41.43  34.31  59.04  30.22  47.92 
 Labour costs  7.65  37.03  4.32  9.60  1.23  26.33  19.62  23.78  26.39  17.22 
 Other Income Factors  60.32  35.66  78.69  19.77  26.09  34.94  47.09  17.78  44.27  35.96 
 Total Output  100.45  101.01  100.37  100.79  113.83  102.70  101.03  100.59  100.88  101.10 
   16 
 
Table 6 : Total Inflationary Effect of Various Scenarios (1990, % increase)         
                     
 Iterations                   
Scenarios  1  2  3  4  5  6  7  8  9  10 
S1  0.36  0.87  1.14  1.28  1.36  1.4  1.42  1.43  1.44  1.44 
S2  0.36  0.94  1.32  1.58  1.75  1.85  1.92  1.96  1.99  2.01 
S3  0.36  0.92  1.27  1.5  1.65  1.74  1.8  1.84  1.86  1.87 
S4  0.36  0.96  1.41  1.76  2.02  2.21  2.35  2.46  2.54  2.6 
S5  0.36  1  1.56  2.06  2.49  2.86  3.17  3.45  3.69  3.89 
S6  0.36  0.98  1.47  1.85  2.15  2.37  2.54  2.67  2.77  2.85 
S7  0.36  1.02  1.62  2.17  2.65  3.08  3.46  3.79  4.09  4.35 
S8  0.36  1.07  1.79  2.53  3.28  4.04  4.8  5.57  6.35  7.13 
                     
S1: Inflationary Effect of 20%  Oil Price Increase(1990, Wages and Other Factor Income Fixed)        
S2: Inflationary Effect of 20%  Oil Price Increase (1990, Wages Adjusted, Other Income Factors Fixed)      
S3: Inflationary Effect of 20%  Oil Price Increase (1990, Wages Fixed, 1/3 of Other Income Factors Adjusted)      
S4: Inflationary Effect of 20%  Oil Price Increase (1990, Wages Fixed, 2/3 of Other Income Factors Adjusted)    
S5: Inflationary Effect of 20%  Oil Price Increase (1990, Wages Fixed, 3/3 of Other Income Factors Adjusted)    
S6: Inflationary Effect of 20%  Oil Price Increase (1990, Wages and 1/3 of Other Income Factors Adjusted)    
S7: Inflationary Effect of 20%  Oil Price Increase (1990, Wages and 2/3 of Other Income Factors Adjusted)    
S8: Inflationary Effect of 20%  Oil Price Increase (1990, Wages and 3/3 of Other Income Factors Adjusted)    
 

Inflationary Effect of Crude Oil Prices in Turkey

http://www.bilkent.edu.tr/~economics/papers/02-03%20DP_H.Berument.pdf

Inflationary Effect of Crude Oil Prices in Turkey

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Research Papers in Economics