Charlotte Boschan

Gerhard Bry

English

Research Papers in Economics

This PDF is a selection from an out-of-print volume from the National Bureau of Economic Research
Volume Title: Cyclical Analysis of Time Series: Selected Procedures and Computer Programs
Volume Author/Editor: Gerhard Bry and Charlotte Boschan
Volume Publisher: UMI
Volume ISBN: 0-87014-223-2
Volume URL: http://www.nber.org/books/bry_71-1
Publication Date: 1971
Chapter Title: Foreword to "Cyclical Analysis of Time Series: Selected Procedures and Computer Programs"
Chapter Author: Gerhard Bry, Charlotte Boschan
Chapter URL: http://www.nber.org/chapters/c2146
Chapter pages in book: (p. -1 - 0)FOREWORD
THIS STUDY IS CONCERNED with some programmed approaches to
business cycle research as they are used at the National Bureau of
Economic Research. It describes a programmed selection of cyclical
turning points in time series, currently under development, as well as
the Bureau's standard business cycle analysis and recession-recovery
analysis. The analytical approaches are sketched, the statistical mea-
sures are described, and the problems typically encountered in the
interpretation of these measures are discussed.Illustrative output
tables are provided in the appendixes to each chapter. Descriptions
of the various computer programs, their scope, available options, and
limitations are available on request in the form of mimeographed
supplements, which also contain technical instructions and caveats
essential for the practical implementation of the programs. The pro-
grammed approaches eliminate some of the barriers that, in the past,
have restricted the use of the techniques described. It is hoped that
this book will promote a wider application of the analyses.
In the description of the general approaches as well as in the illus-
trative interpretation of the computed analytical measures, we address
a somewhat less specialized audience than that to which Wesley C.
Mitchell, Arthur F. Burns, and Geoffrey H. Moore directed their
original expositions of business cycle measurements. This is done in
the expectation that acquaintance with the computerized approach will
induce analysts to use the techniques—among them, analysts who
might shy away from the investment in the detailed procedural knowl-
edge and experience necessary for conventional processing. Since many
of the technical steps and even some procedural decisions are pro-
grammed, it is possible to dispense with most of the mechanics and to
concentrate on the rationale of the analysis and the problems of inter-
preting results. A current restatement of the approaches also permits
the incorporation of some thoughts developed after the publication of
the early studies, and it promotes the dissemination of some of the
practical wisdom that typically accrues in the process of making mis-
takes, be it in operation or in interpretation. In that sense, the present
book is expected to contribute not only to operational facility but also
to a better understanding of the techniques and their results.
This monograph is the latest of the National Bureau's efforts to
make itsanalytical techniques and the related computer programs
available to the research community. The first publication of this typexiv Foreword
was Seasonal Adjustments by Electronic Computer Methods by Julius
Shiskin and Harry Eisenpress, originally presented in 1955 at a joint
meeting of the American Statistical Association and the Econometric
Society and later published by the National Bureau as Technical
Paper 12. Another, Electronic Computers and Business Indicators by
Julius Shiskin, appeared in 1957 as Occasional Paper 57. The authors
of the present study presented a paper on "Applications of Electronic
Computers to Business Cycle Research" before the annual meeting
of the American Statistical Association in 1960. Milton Friedman's
Interpolation of Time Series by Related Series, Technical Paper 16,
1962, which uses programmed regression analysis, should be men-
tioned in this connection. Also, about two dozen standard programs
for economic analysis, developed or adopted at the National Bureau,
are described in the mimeographed collection "Electronic Computing
Memoranda."
We wish to acknowledge the sustained and generous support that
our programming and data processing activities received from the
International Business Machines Corporation, both in the form of
grants of electronic computer time and of cash contributions. We are
also grateful for assistance received from the National Science Founda-
tion. We believe that the Bureau's computer operations provide an en-
couraging example of the fruitfulness of private and public support for
the development of new techniques in the field of economic research.
The authors wish to express their appreciation for the personal en-
couragement and support they received in their general efforts, as well
as in the preparation of the present study, from Geoffrey H. Moore.
Only those who have received this support can fuiiy appreciate its
value. We also want to acknowledge the constructive criticism pro-
vided by other members of the staff, Philip Klein, Ilse Mintz, and Julius
Shiskin. Thanks are also due to the Board of Directors Reading Com-
mittee, particularly Frank W. Fetter and Maurice W. Lee. Finally we
want to record our debt to Sophie Sakowitz, who generously shared with
us her rich experience in all matters relating to business cycle analysis.
Fred Howard and Virginia Meltzer edited the manuscript. Most
charts were originally programmed for, and drawn by, the IBM—1130.
H. Irving Forman improved the design, processed the charts for publi-
cation, and drew those charts that did not lend themselves to electronic
plotting. We gratefully acknowledge their contributions.
GERHARD BRY
CHARLOTTE BOSCHAN
fl—I

Cyclical Analysis of Time Series: Selected Procedures and Computer Programs

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Research Papers in Economics